Humanities and Social Sciences

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics


Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics | 2011 | No 1 |


We consider fiscal and monetary policy interactions in a monetary unionunder monetary leadership, when the common central bank is concerned with theaverage fiscal stance of the union. We use a static two-country monetary unionmodel to investigate the policy-mix problem under different regimes of non-cooperation, cooperation, and enforced cooperation among fiscal authorities.We find that fiscal policy is unambiguously countercyclical, a feature that ismore pronounced under fiscal policy cooperation. Monetary policy can be eithercountercyclical or procyclical. A central bank concerned about the aggregatefiscal stance is effective in stabilizing output and central budget, but at theexpense of inflation stabilization.

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The intention of this article is to evaluate the exogenous dismissal probabilityfor a certain worker depending on her characteristics for the Polish labormarket. To model this phenomenon I considered a range of count datamodels. In the analysis the data from the Polish General Social Survey of 2008 was used. Covariates explaining the number of unemployment spells wereselected in the spirit of the human-capital theory. In the course of the studyexistence of intransferable firm-specific human capital across employers anddepreciation of the human capital acquired through learning by doing have beenempirically confirmed. The conducted analysis may be considered the first stepin the calibration of a job-search model with heterogeneous agents.

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The paper is devoted to discussing consequences of the so-called Frisch-Waugh Theorem to posterior inference and Bayesian model comparison. We adopt a generalised normal linear regression framework and weakenits assumptions in order to cover non-normal, jointly elliptical samplingdistributions, autoregressive specifications, additional nuisance parameters andmulti-equation SURE or VAR models. The main result is that inference basedon the original full Bayesian model can be obtained using transformed dataand reduced parameter spaces, provided the prior density for scale or precisionparameters is appropriately modified.

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Editorial office


JACEK OSIEWALSKI, Cracow University of Economics, Poland
ALEKSANDER WELFE, University of Lodz, Poland

MAŁGORZATA DOMAN, University of Economics, Poznań, Poland
RYSZARD DOMAN, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland
JAKUB GROWIEC, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
MAREK GRUSZCZYŃSKI, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
BOGUMIŁ KAMIŃSKI, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
MARCIN KOLASA, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland


CEJEME Editorial Office - Ms. Karolina Jaszczyk, Polish Academy of Sciencies - Lodz Branch
Piotrkowska Str. 137/139, 90-434 Lodz, Poland

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