Nauki Humanistyczne i Społeczne

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics

Zawartość

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics | 2018 | No 4 |

Abstrakt

The paper considers a private ownership economy in which economic agents could realize their aims at given prices, Walras Law is satisfied but agents’ optimal plans of action do not lead to an equilibrium in the economy. It means that the market clearing condition is not satisfied for agents’ optimal plans of action. In this context, the paper puts forward three specific adjustment processes resulting in equilibrium in a transformation of the initial economy. Specifically, it is shown, by the use of strict mathematical reasoning, that if there is no equilibrium in a private ownership economy at given prices, then, under some natural economic assumptions, after a mild evolution of the production sector, equilibrium at unchanged prices can be achieved.

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Abstrakt

Changes in the size and the age structure of a population have a great impact on an economy, especially on national savings and capital flows. Poland’s population, although still relatively young when compared to other developed countries, is expected to experience accelerated ageing and decline in forthcoming decades. In this paper, we assess the effects of these processes for Polish economy. Using an open-economy OLG model with demographic shocks and a variable retirement age, we simulate dynamics of real interest rates, main macro aggregates as well as net foreign assets to GDP. We show that rapid ageing will reduce the interest rate gap between Poland and the developed countries by 1.3-2 p.p. We also document a strong positive relationship between interest rates and the retirement age and find that the decline in the interest rate in Poland is primarily driven by the surviving probability shock

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Redakcja

Editors

JACEK OSIEWALSKI, Cracow University of Economics, Poland
ALEKSANDER WELFE, University of Lodz, Poland

Co-Editors
MAŁGORZATA DOMAN, University of Economics, Poznań, Poland
RYSZARD DOMAN, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland
JAKUB GROWIEC, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
MAREK GRUSZCZYŃSKI, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
BOGUMIŁ KAMIŃSKI, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
MARCIN KOLASA, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland

Kontakt

CEJEME Editorial Office - Ms. Karolina Jaszczyk, Polish Academy of Sciencies - Lodz Branch
Piotrkowska Str. 137/139, 90-434 Lodz, Poland
e-mail: cejeme@pan.pl

Instrukcje dla autorów

Submission Guidelines and Instructions for Authors of accepted papers please visit: http://cejeme.org/submissionguidelines.aspx

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