@ARTICLE{Jastrzębski_Paweł_Simulation_2018, author={Jastrzębski, Paweł and Saługa, Piotr W.}, volume={vol. 21}, number={No 2}, journal={Polityka Energetyczna - Energy Policy Journal}, pages={75-88}, howpublished={online}, year={2018}, publisher={Instytut Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi i Energią PAN}, abstract={The sustainable management of energy production and consumption is one of the main challenges of the 21st century. This results from the threats to the natural environment, including the negative impact of the energy sector on the climate, the limited resources of fossil fuels, as well as the unstability of renewable energy sources – despite the development of technologies for obtaining energy from the: sun, wind, water, etc. In this situation, the efficiency of energy management, both on the micro (dispersed energy) and macro (power system) scale, may be improved by innovative technological solutions enabling energy storage. Their effective implementation enables energy storage during periods of overproduction and its use in the case of energy shortages. These challenges cannot be overestimated. Modern science needs to solve various technological issues in the field of storage, organizational problems of enterprises producing electricity and heat, or issues related to the functioning of energy markets. The article presents the specificity of the operation of a combined heat and power plant with a heat accumulator in the electricity market while taking the parameters affected by uncertainty into account. It was pointed out that the analysis of the risk associated with energy prices and weather conditions is an important element of the decision-making process and management of a heat and power plant equipped with a cold water heat accumulator. The complexity of the issues and the number of variables to be analyzed at a given time are the reason for the use of advanced forecasting methods. The stochastic modeling methods are considered as interesting tools that allow forecasting the operation of an installation with a heat accumulator while taking the influence of numerous variables into account. The analysis has shown that the combined use of Monte Carlo simulations and forecasting using the geometric Brownian motion enables the quantification of the risk of the CHP plant’s operation and the impact of using the energy store on solving uncertainties. The applied methodology can be used at the design stage of systems with energy storage and enables carrying out the risk analysis in the already existing systems; this will allow their efficiency to be improved. The introduction of additional parameters of the planned investments to the analysis will allow the maximum use of energy storage systems in both industrial and dispersed power generation.}, type={Artykuły / Articles}, title={Simulation of the use of a heat accumulator in combined heat and power plants}, URL={http://journals.pan.pl/Content/107028/PDF/06-Jastrzebski-Saluga.pdf}, doi={10.24425/122771}, keywords={energy production, energy storage, consumption forecasting, Monte Carlo simulation}, }