Humanities and Social Sciences

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics

Content

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics | 2019 | No 1 |

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Abstract

The literature investigates the relation between savings and interest rate mainly for household sector, but in recent decades households ceased to be the main source of savings in the economy. We try to identify how the savings of different sectors respond to the interest rate change using the SVAR methodology. We focus on Poland and generalize the results for other European economies. We find that although the household savings rate tends to rise after an increase of interest rate, the corporate savings simultaneously fall, inducing a negative conditional correlation between them. The responses of savings rate of general government and foreign savings are diverse (although the former usually declines after an interest rate increase) and does not seem to be related to factors like the membership in the currency union or the level of public debt. We also check the existence of the ‘crowding-out’ effects and conclude it only applies in the case of government savings crowding out household savings.

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Authors and Affiliations

Michał Gradzewicz
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Abstract

The paper aims at comparing forecast ability of VAR/VEC models with a non-changing covariance matrix and two classes of Bayesian Vector Error Correction – Stochastic Volatility (VEC-SV) models, which combine the VEC representation of a VAR structure with stochastic volatility, represented by the Multiplicative Stochastic Factor (MSF) process, the SBEKK form or the MSF-SBEKK specification.

Based on macro-data coming from the Polish economy (time series of unemployment, inflation and interest rates) we evaluate predictive density functions employing of such measures as log predictive density score, continuous rank probability score, energy score, probability integral transform. Each of them takes account of different feature of the obtained predictive density functions.

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Authors and Affiliations

Justyna Wróblewska
Anna Pajor
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Abstract

The aim of the study is to formally compare the explanatory power of Copula-GARCH and MGARCH models. The models are estimated for logarithmic daily rates of return of two exchange rates: EUR/PLN, USD/PLN and stock market indices: SP500, BUX. The analysis is performed within the Bayesian framework. The posterior model probabilities point to AR(1)-tSBEKK(1,1) for the exchange rates and VAR(1)-tCopula-GARCH(1,1) for the stock market indices, as the superior specifications. If the marginal sampling distributions are different in terms of tail thickness, the Copula-GARCH models have higher explanatory power than the MGARCH models.

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Authors and Affiliations

Justyna Mokrzycka

Editorial office

Editors
JACEK OSIEWALSKI, Cracow University of Economics, Poland
ALEKSANDER WELFE, University of Lodz, Poland

Co-Editors

KATARZYNA BIEŃ-BARKOWSKA, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
MIKOŁAJ CZAJKOWSKI, University of Warsaw, Poland
JAKUB GROWIEC, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
MAREK GRUSZCZYŃSKI, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
BOGUMIŁ KAMIŃSKI, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
MARCIN KOLASA, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
ANNA PAJOR, Cracow University of Economics, Poland

Associate Editors
KARIM ABADIR, The American University in Cairo, Cairo, Egypt
ANINDYA BANERJEE, University of Birmingham, UK
STEPHEN HALL, University of Leicester, UK
GARY KOOP, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
MARK STEEL, University of Warwick, UK
MARTIN WAGNER, Technical University of Dortmund, Germany
JAN WERNER, University of Minnesota, USA
PETER WINKER, University of Giessen, Germany

Editorial Board

HERMAN van DIJK, Erasmus University Rotterdam and VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands
LAWRENCE R. KLEIN, University of Pennsylvania, Benjamin Franklin Professor of Economics, USA
TIMO TERASVIRTA, University of Aarhus, Denmark
HELMUT LUETKEPOHL, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany

Publishing Editor

ANNA STASZEWSKA-BYSTROVA, University of Lodz, Poland

Editorial Assistant

AGNIESZKA RYGIEL, Cracow University of Economics, Poland

Contact

CEJEME Editorial Office - Ms. Karolina Jaszczyk, Polish Academy of Sciencies - Lodz Branch
Piotrkowska Str. 137/139, 90-434 Lodz, Poland
e-mail: cejeme@pan.pl

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Submission Guidelines and Instructions for Authors of accepted papers please visit: http://cejeme.org/submissionguidelines.aspx

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