Humanities and Social Sciences

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics

Content

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics | 2020 | No 1 |

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Abstract

We provide a detailed analysis of a unifying theoretical framework forinnovation and corporate dynamics that encompasses the Gibrat’s Law of Proportionate Effect and the Simon growth process as particular instances. The predictions of the model are derived in terms of (i) firm size distribution, (ii) the distribution of firm growth rates, and (iii-iv) the relationships between firm size and the mean and variance of firm growth rates. We test the model against data from the worldwide pharmaceutical industry and find its predictions tobe in good agreement with empirical evidence on all four dimensions. Our unifying stochastic framework can also be used to describe corporate dynamics in different industries and as a benchmark for discriminating among alternative data generating processes.

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Authors and Affiliations

Jakub Growiec
Fabio Pammolli
Massimo Riccaboni
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Abstract

Inflation targeting is nowadays used by around 40 countries, with each of them tailoring some features of the strategy to its own needs. This holdse specially for deciding on the level of inflation targets. The analysis conducted in the paper aims at identifying factors affecting the choice of the target levels, with macroeconomic, structural and institutional characteristics of the reviewed economies being investigated. The main conclusion is that both backward- and forward-looking models can help to explain how inflation targets are set. Evidently inflation and GDP growth (past and forecast) together within formation on a possibly on going disinflation process are of key importance,but – especially for emerging market economies – also inflation variance and the level of economic development seem to influence the target levels. Moreover,many of the institutional features related, among others, to transparency and accountability of the reviewed central banks, were found significant in the analysis.

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Authors and Affiliations

Joanna Niedźwiedzińska
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Abstract

We estimated a non-Stationary dynamic factor model and used it to generate artificial episodes of disinflation (permanent changes in the mean inflationrate). These datasets were used to test the forecasting abilities of alternative underlying inflation indicators (i.e. measures that capture sustained movements in inflation extracted from information in a disaggregated set of price data).We found that the out of sample forecast errors of the benchmark underlying inflation measures (based on unobserved trend extraction) are more severely affected by disinflation than the alternative simpler methods (based on exclusionor re-weighting approaches). We also show that a non-stationary dynamic factor model may be employed for the extraction of the unobserved trend to be usedas an underlying inflation measure.

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Authors and Affiliations

Elena Deryugina
Alexey Ponomarenko

Editorial office

Editors
JACEK OSIEWALSKI, Cracow University of Economics, Poland
ALEKSANDER WELFE, University of Lodz, Poland

Co-Editors

KATARZYNA BIEŃ-BARKOWSKA, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
MIKOŁAJ CZAJKOWSKI, University of Warsaw, Poland
JAKUB GROWIEC, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
MAREK GRUSZCZYŃSKI, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
BOGUMIŁ KAMIŃSKI, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
MARCIN KOLASA, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
ANNA PAJOR, Cracow University of Economics, Poland

Associate Editors
KARIM ABADIR, The American University in Cairo, Cairo, Egypt
ANINDYA BANERJEE, University of Birmingham, UK
STEPHEN HALL, University of Leicester, UK
GARY KOOP, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
MARK STEEL, University of Warwick, UK
MARTIN WAGNER, Technical University of Dortmund, Germany
JAN WERNER, University of Minnesota, USA
PETER WINKER, University of Giessen, Germany

Editorial Board

HERMAN van DIJK, Erasmus University Rotterdam and VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands
LAWRENCE R. KLEIN, University of Pennsylvania, Benjamin Franklin Professor of Economics, USA
TIMO TERASVIRTA, University of Aarhus, Denmark
HELMUT LUETKEPOHL, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany

Publishing Editor

ANNA STASZEWSKA-BYSTROVA, University of Lodz, Poland

Editorial Assistant

AGNIESZKA RYGIEL, Cracow University of Economics, Poland

Contact

CEJEME Editorial Office - Ms. Karolina Jaszczyk, Polish Academy of Sciencies - Lodz Branch
Piotrkowska Str. 137/139, 90-434 Lodz, Poland
e-mail: cejeme@pan.pl

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Submission Guidelines and Instructions for Authors of accepted papers please visit: http://cejeme.org/submissionguidelines.aspx

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