Forecasting and analysis SWOT are helping tools in the business activity, because under conditions of dynamic changes in both closer and more distant surroundings, reliable, forward-looking information and trends analysis are playing a decisive role. At present, the ability to use available data in forecasting and other analyzes according with changes in business environment are the key managerial skills required, since both forecasting and SWOT analysis are a integral part of the management process, and the appropriate level of forecasting knowledge is increasingly appreciated. Examples of practical use of some forecasting methods in optimization of the procurement, production and distribution processes in foundries are given. The possibilities of using conventional quantitative forecasting methods based on econometric and adaptive models applying the creep trend and harmonic weights are presented. The econometric models were additionally supplemented with the presentation of error estimation methodology, quality assessment and statistical verification of the forecast. The possibility of using qualitative forecasts based on SWOT analysis was also mentioned.
Conducting reliable and credible evaluation and statistical interpretation of empirical results related to the operation of production systems in foundries is for most managers complicated and labour-intensive. Additionally, in many cases, statistical evaluation is either ignored and considered a necessary evil, or is completely useless because of improper selection of methods and subsequent misinterpretation of the results. In this article, after discussing the key elements necessary for the proper selection of statistical methods, a wide spectrum of these methods has been presented, including regression analysis, uni- and multivariate correlation, one-way analysis of variance for factorial designs, and selected forecasting methods. Each statistical method has been illustrated with numerous examples related to the foundry practice.
A comparative analysis involving the evaluation of the effectiveness of investment projects can be based on various rules indicating selection of the most favorable decisions. The dynamic methods for assessment of investment projects discussed in this article, which consider the possibility of modifying the predetermined investment options, are quite complex and difficult to implement. They are used both in the construction phase of the new company, as well as in its subsequent modernization. The assessments should be characterized by a high coefficient of the economic efficiency. The, observed in practice, high dynamic variability of both the external and internal conditions under which the company operates is the reason why in the process of calculating the economic efficiency of investment projects, there is a significant number of random parameters affected by high uncertainty and risk. Investments in the metallurgical industry are characterized by a relatively long cycle of implementation and operation. These are capital-intensive projects and often mistakenly taken investment decisions end in failure of the investment project and, consequently, in the collapse of the company. In addition, the applied methods of risk assessment of investment projects, especially the dynamic ones, should be fully understood by managerial staff and constitute an easy to use, yet accurate tool for improving the efficiency of the company.