System Dynamics is methodology for modeling and analyzing complex systems. Such systems can be characterized by interconnectedness and feedback. Applying risk assessment to the results of System Dynamics models is a challenge. Though in some cases the resulting time series data generated by a simulation may appear approximately random at a specific scale, there is often a high-degree of auto-correlation within the data series due to the deterministic nature of generation and feedback loops inherent in the system. This paper presents proposed Dynamic Risk Assessment Method (DRAM) that allows for the estimation of risk for system dynamics data series that appear to be approximately random. DRAM is based on standard risk assessment methods and is simple both to calculate and apply. In this article, the proposed method is applied to determine the risk connected with hypothetical costs of illness stemming from water supply system contamination with Cryptosporidium.
This paper presents the use of multi-criteria analysis as a tool that helps choosing an adequate technology for a household wastewater treatment plant. In the process of selection the criteria of sustainable development were taken into account. Five municipal mechanical-biological treatment plants were chosen for the comparative multi-criteria analysis. Different treatment technologies, such as sand filter, activated sludge, trickling filter, a hybrid system - activated sludge/trickling filter and a hybrid constructed wetland system VF-HF type (vertical and horizontal fl ow) were taken into account. The plants’ capacities were 1 m3∙d-1 (PE=8) and they all meet the environmental regulations. Additionally, a solution with a drainage system was included into the analysis. On the basis of multi-criteria analysis it was found that the preferred wastewater treatment technologies, consistent with the principles of sustainable development, were a sand filter and a hybrid constructed wetland type VF-HF. A drainage system was chosen as the best solution due to the economic criteria, however, taking into consideration the primary (ecological) criterion, employment of such systems on a larger scale disagree with the principles of sustainable development. It was found that activated sludge is the least favourable technology. The analysis showed that this technology is not compatible with the principles of sustainable development, due to a lack of proper technological stability and low reliability.