The purpose of this article is to present the preparation of Project Risk Assessment Methodology and its mitigation in complex construction projects. The main text provides a summary of the approach, the method used and the findings. The conclusions have been drawn that the proper tools for quantifying risks have to be based on the criteria specific for mathematical statistic and probability or at least fuzziness. Function, which makes possible to categorize any risks into one of the five categories, is a combination of probability and the impact on one of the items: people and their safety or budget, cost, schedule and planning or quality and performance. An attempt was made to express numerically the relationship between risks impacts and their level of likelihood. Also, a method of associating the influence of projects risks impacts on the extent of the likelihood of project risk occurrence which makes possible to determine the direction and the strength of this relationship was presented.
The aim of the article is to present the issue of risk and related management methods, with a particular emphasis on the conditions of investment in energy infrastructure. The work consists of two main parts; the first one is the theoretical analysis of the issue, while the second discusses the application of analysis methods on the example of the investment in an agricultural biogas plant. The article presents the definitions related to the investment risk and its management, with a particular emphasis on the distinction between the risk and uncertainty. In addition, the main risk groups of the energy sector were subjected to an analysis. Then, the basic systematics and the division into particular risk groups were presented and the impact of the diversification of investments in the portfolio on the general level of risk was determined. The sources of uncertainty were discussed with particular attention to the categories of energy investments. The next part of the article presents risk mitigation methods that are part of the integrated risk management process and describes the basic methods supporting the quantification of the risk level and its effects – including the Monte Carlo (MC), Value at risk (VaR), and other methods. Finally, the paper presents the possible application of the methods presented in the theoretical part. The investment in agricultural biogas plant, due to the predictable operation accompanied by an extremely complicated and long-term investment process, was the subject of the analysis. An example of “large drawing analysis” was presented, followed by a Monte Carlo simulation and a VaR value determination. The presented study allows for determining the risk in the case of deviation of financial flows from the assumed values in particular periods and helps in determining the effects of such deviations. The conducted analysis indicates a low investment risk and suggests the ease of similar calculations for other investments.
Financial management in a capital group is very important for its growth and operation. Liquidity risk management can be analyzed regarding their static and dynamic dimensions. The process can also be facilitated by cash management products offered by financial institutions. One of the mechanisms influencing the increase in cash management efficiency of a capital group examined in this article is cash pooling, notably multicurrency cash pooling. This type of product is based frequently on the virtual consolidation. Its essence is the consolidation of cash available on the accounts of individual system participants. Using this solution the capital group can manage surpluses and shortages achieving the “economies of scale” (cost reduction and maximization of interest income). Available one the banking services market solutions offer consolidation in USD, EUR, CHF, GBP. The article presents the definition of cash pooling and the essence of its operation. Based on the literature analysis, the article lists types of cash pooling and benefits associated with it. Following on from the solution described, the article presents a model of multicurrency cash pooling in a capital group, including steps necessary to implement it and proposed technical solutions. The solution is described, can be also successfully applied in capital groups of energy sector. Using multicurrency consolidation is very useful solution in deposits management for transactions concluded in international commodities exchanges.
The paper presents an approach for evaluation of the likelihood of damage to the transportation infrastructure in the context of the terrorist attacks on the example of a number of bridges located in Wrocław (Poland). Assuming that there will be only one bridge destroyed in a given area, in order to determine the probability of damage to one of the objects, there was one of multi-criteria optimi-zation methods used, i.e. the method of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The main advantage of the analysis carried out was that the accepted hierarchy of decision-making options could be easily explained in a scientifi c manner, not only with reference to personal knowledge, experience, and intuition.
The FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) method consists in analysis of failure modes and evaluation of their effects based on determination of cause-effect relationships for formation of possible product or process defects. Identified irregularities which occur during the production process of piston castings for internal combustion engines were ordered according to their failure rates, and using Pareto-Lorenz analysis, their per cent and cumulated shares were determined. The assessments of risk of defects occurrence and their causes were carried out in ten-point scale of integers, while taking three following criteria into account: significance of effects of the defect occurrence (LPZ), defect occurrence probability (LPW) and detectability of the defect found (LPO). A product of these quantities constituted the risk score index connected with a failure occurrence (a so-called “priority number,” LPR). Based on the observations of the piston casting process and on the knowledge of production supervisors, a set of corrective actions was developed and the FMEA was carried out again. It was shown that the proposed improvements reduce the risk of occurrence of process failures significantly, translating into a decrease in defects and irregularities during the production of piston castings for internal combustion engines.
In the existent world of continuous production systems, strong attention has been waged to anonymous risk that probably generates significant apprehension. The forecast for net present value is extremely important for any production plant. The objective of this paper is to implement Monte Carlo simulation technique for perceiving the impact of risk and uncertainty in prediction and forecasting company’s profitability. The production unit under study is interested to make the initial investment by installing an additional spray dryer plant. The expressive values acquied from the Monte Carlo technique established a range of certain results. The expected net present value of the cash flow is $14,605, hence the frequency chart outcomes confirmed that there is the highest level of certainty that the company will achieve its target. To forecast the net present value for the next period, the results confirmed that there are 50.73% chances of achieving the outcomes. Considering the minimum and maximum values at 80% certainty level, it was observed that 80% chances exist that expected outcomes will be between $5,830 and $22,587. The model’s sensitivity results validated that cash inflows had a greater sensitivity level of 21.1% and the cash inflows for the next year as 19.7%. Cumulative frequency distribution confirmed that the probability to achieve a maximum value of $23,520 is 90 % and for the value of $6,244 it is about 10 %. These validations suggested that controlling the expenditures, the company’s outflows can also be controlled definitely.
The European standards, developed extensively over last 30 years, are driven by the need for continuous evolution and their Authors’ pursuit of better EU-wide quality in civil engineering – combining safety, economy, and sustainable development. The adoption of theory of reliability as the basis for design has played a major role in shaping current geotechnical practice. However, it requires from practitioners a greater understanding of underlying uncertainties. Furthermore, a number of alternative approaches, not generally used in structural design, are also allowed, as some situations in geotechnical engineering require an individual approach. Moreover, the current trends in geoengineering increase the importance of risk assessment and management. The paper presents general philosophy guiding the geotechnical design and pointing to some of the ideas introduced by Eurocode 7 and its requirements, in relation to preexisting practice of geotechnical design in civil engineering.
The article describes a shock safety modeling method for low-voltage electric devices, based on using a Bayesian network. This method allows for taking into account all possible combinations of the reliability and unreliability states for the shock protection elements under concern. The developed method allows for investigating electric shock incidents, analysing and assessing shock risks, as well as for determining criteria of dimensioning shock protection means, also with respect to reliability of the particular shock protection elements. Dependencies for determining and analysing the probability of appearance of reliability states of protection as well as an electric shock risk are presented in the article.
The article presents a shock safety model of an indirect contact with a low-voltage electric device. This model was used for computations and analyses concerning the following: the probabilities of appearance of the particular shock protection unreliability states, electric shock states (ventricular fibrillation), contributions of the unreliability of different shock protection elements to the probability of occurrence of these states, as well as the risk of electric shock (and the shock safety), and contributions of the intensity of occurrence of damages to different shock protection elements to this risk. An example of a possibility to reduce the risk of an electric shock through changing the intensity of occurrence of damages to the selected protection elements was provided.