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Abstract

The subject of this paper is the analysis of possible influence of climate change on the energy performance of building and indoor temperatures. The model is based on the Maison Air et Lumière house, which concept was developed as part of the Model Homo 2020 project. It was a low-energy, single family, detached house. The model was divided into three thermal zones and developed by using SketchUp software. The analysis of the climate change was made on the example of the city in Poland – Kielce and described in the first part of the paper. Dynamic calculations of the building model were performed by using the TRNSYS software. The calculations were made for three different scenarios relating to existing technical systems: ventilation, ventilation + heating, ventilation + heating + cooling. Annual energy consumption and rooms air temperature changes were estimated for each variant. The results showed higher risk of summer discomfort and change in energy balance of building what indicates the need to use the cooling system in the future during the summer to reduce the discomfort of overheating. In the variant without the cooling system, the percentage of time with an indoor temperature above 27°C increased from 23.7% to 44.2% in zone 2. The energy demand for heating was reduced by 23.4% compared to the current climate, and the energy consumption for cooling (with the cooling option) increased significantly by 232% compared to the current demand. Summarizing, research indicates that with global warming, the energy demand for heating will decrease and the cooling demand will increase significantly in order to maintain the required user comfort.
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Authors and Affiliations

Szymon Firląg
1
ORCID: ORCID
Artur Miszczuk
1
ORCID: ORCID
Bartosz Witkowski
2
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Al. Armii Ludowej 16, 00-637 Warsaw,Poland
  2. Faculty of Civil Engineering, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Na Grobli 15, 50-421 Wrocław, Poland
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Abstract

The subject of this paper is to analyse the climate change and its influence on the energy performance of building and indoor temperatures. The research was made on the example of the city of Kielce, Poland. It was was carried out basing on the Municipal Adaptive Plan for the city of Kielce and climate data from the Ministry of Investment and Development.The predicted, future parameters of the climate were estimated using the tool Weather Shift for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The analysis took into consideration the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for years 2035 and 2065, representing different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Scenario RCP4.5represents possible, additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m2 in 2100, and RCP8.5 an additional 8.5 W/m2. The calculated parameters included average month values of temperature and relative humidity of outdoor air, wind velocity and solar radiation. The results confirmed the increase of outdoor temperature in the following year. The values of relative humidity do not change significantly for the winter months, while in the summer months decrease is visible. No major changes were spotted in the level of solar radiation or wind speed. Based on the calculated parameters dynamic building modelling was carried out using the TRNSYS software. The methodology and results of the calculations will be presented in the second part of the paper.
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Authors and Affiliations

Szymon Firląg
1
ORCID: ORCID
Artur Miszczuk
1
ORCID: ORCID
Bartosz Witkowski
2
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Al. Armii Ludowej 16, 00-637 Warsaw, Poland
  2. Faculty of Civil Engineering, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Na Grobli 15, 50-421 Wrocław, Poland

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