The article presents a methodology for determining the value of the expansion coefficient of a reconsolidated caving zone in the context of forecasting the rise in underground mine water levels and consequent surface subsidence caused by the process of flooding the closed coal mines. The paper also provides a brief characterisation of analytical predictive models regarding surface subsidence during the process of flooding coal mines. In order to describe the vertical deformation of the reconsolidated porous rock mass in the caving zone, a linear-elastic medium of Biot was utilised. The conducted theoretical calculations demonstrate a high agreement with the results obtained through the identification of the expansion coefficient parameter based on the analysis of in-situ subsidence measurements in Dutch and German mining areas. The proposed methodology was applied to a real case study involving the forecasting of the impact of the flooding process on the underground workings of the German Ibbenbüren mine. The article constitutes a significant contribution to the field of forecasting the rise in underground mine water levels and surface subsidence during the process of flooding closed coal mines. The presented methodology and obtained results can be valuable for researchers, engineers, and decision-makers involved in the planning and management of mining areas.

The article presents three German-located case studies based on stochastic methods founded by the theory proposed by Knothe and the development of the ‘Ruhrkohle method’ according to Ehrhardt and Sauer. These solutions are successfully applied to predict mining-induced ground movements. The possibility of forecasting both vertical and horizontal ground movements has been presented in the manuscript, which allowed for optimization mining projects in terms of predicted ground movements.
The first example presents the extraction of the Mausegatt seam beneath the district of Moers-Kapellen in the Niederberg mine. Considering, among others, the adaption of the dynamic impact of the underground operations to the mining-induced sensitivity of surface objects, the maximum permissible rate of the face advance has been determined.
The second example presents the extraction of coal panel 479 in the Johann seam located directly in the fissure zone of Recklinghausen-North. Also, in this case, the protection of motorway bridge structure (BAB A43/L225) to mining influences has been presented. The Ruhrkohle method was used as a basis for the mathematical model that was developed to calculate the maximum horizontal opening of the fissure zone and the maximum gap development rate.
Part of the article is dedicated to ground uplift due to rising mine water levels. Although it is not the main factor causing mining-related damage, such movements in the rock masses should also be predicted. As the example of the Königsborn mine, liquidated by flooding, shows stochastic processes are well suited for predicting ground uplift. The only condition is the introduction of minor adjustments in the model and the use of appropriate parameters.