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Abstrakt

The mean-reversion model is introduced into the study of mineral product price prediction. The gold price data from January 2018 to December 2021 are selected, and a mean-reverting stochastic process simulation of the gold price was carried out using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. By comparing the statistical results and trend curves of the mean-reversion (MR) model, geometric Brownian motion (GBM) model, time series model and actual price, it is proved that the mean-reversion process is valid in describing the price fluctuation of mineral product. At the same time, by comparing with the traditional prediction methods, the mean-reversion model can quantitatively assess the uncertainty of the predicted price through a set of equal probability stochastic simulation results, so as to provide data support and decision-making basis for the risk analysis of future economy.
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Autorzy i Afiliacje

Shuwei Huang
1 2 3
ORCID: ORCID
Zhaoyang Ma
1
Feng Jin
1
ORCID: ORCID
Yuansheng Zhang
1

  1. BGRIMM Technology Group, China
  2. Beijing Key Laboratory of Nonferrous Intelligent Mining Technology, China
  3. BGRIMM Intelligent Technology Co. Ltd, China
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Abstrakt

The overall efficiency of a construction of a deep excavation urban project does not depend only on the duration of the construction but also on its influence on the urban environment and the traffic [9, 10]. These two things depend greatly on the excavation method and the construction stages defined during the design process. This paper describes the construction stages of three metro stations (two stations in Warsaw and one in Paris) and discusses their advantages and disadvantages including among other things its impact on neighbouring infrastructure and the city’s traffic. An important conclusion drawn from this analysis is that the shape of the slabs used can considerably affect the design and the construction stages. For example, a vaulted top slab allows an almost immediate traffic restoration and a vaulted bottom raft allows a much shorter dewatering period.
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Bibliografia

[1] A. Stańczyk, “Doświadczenia z budowy stacji metra "Ratusz" i "Marymont" w Warszawie”, Inżynieria i Budownictwo, 5, pp. 244–247, 2008.
[2] Daktera, T., Bourgeois, E., Schmitt, P., Jeanmaire, T., Delva, L., & Priol, G., “Design of deep supported excavations: comparison between real behavior and predictions based on the subgrade coefficient method”, Proceedings of the XVII European Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, pp. 2608–2615, 2019.
[3] Daktera T. “Amélioration des méthodes de calcul des écrans de soutènement à partir du retour d'expérience de grands travaux récents » PhD Thesis, Univ Gustave Eiffel, (to be published) 2020.
[4] M. Graff, “Subway in Warsaw”, Transport systems, 12, pp. 25–35, 2018.
[5] K.F. Unrug, “Shaft design criteria”, International Journal of Mining Engineering, 2, 141–155, 1984.
[6] ILF CONSULTING ENGINEERS, “Design and construction of the underground line II from “Rondo Daszyńskiego” station to the “DworzecWileński” station in Warsaw”, 2010.
[7] M. Mitew-Czajewska, “Geotechnical investigation and static analysis of deep excavation walls – a case study of metro station construction in Warsaw”, Ann. Warsaw Univ. Life Sci. – SGGW, Land Reclam. 47 (2), pp. 163–171, 2015. http://doi.org/10.1515/sggw-2015-0022
[8] A. Sieminska-Lewandowska, “Budowa obiektu a obudowa wykopu – niełatwe zależności”, Nowoczesne Budownictwo Inżynieryjne, marzec kwiecień, pp. 64–71, 2010.
[9] A. Siemińska-Lewandowska, “Głębokie wykopy. Projektowanie i wykonawstwo.”, WKŁ, Warszawa, 2010.
[10] G. Kacprzak, S. Bodus, “The modelling of excavation protection in a highly urbanised environment”, Technical Transactions, Vol. 1, pp. 133–142, 2019. https://doi.org/10.4467/2353737XCT.19.009.10049
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Autorzy i Afiliacje

Grzegorz Kacprzak
1
ORCID: ORCID
Tomasz Daktera
2
ORCID: ORCID
Andrzej Stańczyk
3
ORCID: ORCID
Urszula Tomczak
1
ORCID: ORCID
Seweryn Bodus
3
ORCID: ORCID
Michał Werle
3
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Al. Armii Ludowej 16, 00-637 Warsaw, Poland
  2. Soletanche Bachy International 280 Avenue Napoléon Bonaparte, 92500 Rueil Malmaison, France
  3. Warbud S.A.

Abstrakt

W niniejszej pracy ukazano koncepcję metody wyrównania sieci geodezyjnych z zastosowaniem szeregów Edgewortha i Zasady Wyboru Alternatywy. Szereg Edgewortha jest aproksymantą opisującą empiryczne rozkłady błędów pomiarów. Pozwala ona na uwzględnienie w zadaniach wyrównawczych istotnych anomalii dotyczących podstawowych parametrów empirycznego rozkładu prawdopodobieństw błędów obserwacji geodezyjnych. Jako metodę estymacji zastosowano Zasadę Wyboru Alternatywy. Na szczególną uwagę zasługuje jej naturalna odporność na obserwacje odstające, co dało podstawę opracowania metody ZWA-E. W pracy przedstawiono algorytm rozwiązania oraz testy numeryczne. Celem testów było porównanie wyników wyrównania metody ZWA-E z metodą NK, a w szczególności ustalenie wpływu niezerowych wartości ekscesu na wyniki wyrównania oraz wskazanie na naturalną odporność nowej metody na obserwacje odstające.
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Autorzy i Afiliacje

Andrzej Dumalski

Abstrakt

The current of minor literatures – developed by Gilles Deleuze and Felix Guattari on the basis of an analysis of Franz Kafka's works – is a kind of breakthrough in the modern and post-modern interpretation of literary texts. Its basic aspect is the minority, expressed in various ways, determined by the social exclusion of the artist, set within the framework of a dominant foreign culture, the emanation of which is primarily language. This immanent feature affects all levels of a literary work, leading to the creation of a specific apparatus. One of the most interesting representatives of this current is Sigizmund Krzhizhanovsky – a Russian writer from a Polish noble family. The writer's work – focused mainly on criticism of the central category of logos – is based on a set of philosophical concepts that transfer reflections to a paradigm different from the modernist or socialist realist tradition. One of the key objects of analysis in such an approach is the question of sound and the reception of music itself. The author of the article presents the concept of sound philosophy present in Krzhizhanovsky’s works, which at the same time characterizes the whole current of minor literatures and – similarly to other sign systems – introduces a distinction between minor and dominant elements.

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Autorzy i Afiliacje

Piotr Łaniewski

Abstrakt

The article is a part of materials regarding current problems of Polish science and higher education. It provides an in-depth analysis of the Act on degrees and academic titles as well as several other laws which introduce the so-called Ph.D. implementation in Poland. These laws were adopted by the Sejm of the Republic of Poland in April 2017. The author focuses on several problems, discussing them in separate chapters. The article also tries to predict the far-reaching results of the new rules. At the same time, the author proposes specific solutions that should be included in the future in the Act on degrees and academic titles, or in the Act of industrial property. They should eliminate the negative effects of conflicts between the provisions of various legal acts.

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Autorzy i Afiliacje

Dominik Szulc

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