In the public debate, it is argued that Poland avoided a massive drop in output during the 2008/2009 economic crisis in part thanks to substantial nominal zloty’s depreciation against the euro. The Polish case is often contrasted with Slovakia that adopted the euro in January 2009 and, since the Ecofin Council decision in summer 2008, exhibited virtually no nominal exchange rate volatility while facing deep losses in output. In this paper we attempt to validate this contrast by reversing the roles, i.e. checking if Poland really would have faced the same drop – and Slovakia would have remained relatively resilient – if it had been Poland, not Slovakia, that adopted the euro at that point. Our counterfactual simulations based on a New Keynesian DSGE model indicate that, indeed, the Polish tradable output could have been 10‒15 percent lower than actually observed in 2009, while the Slovak one – approximately 20 percent higher. This asymmetry results mainly from structural differences between the two economies, such as size, openness, share of nontradable sector and foreign trade elasticities. The difference of this size would have been short-lived (3‒4 quarters), and the difference of the nontradable output would have been of much lower magnitude.
The literature investigates the relation between savings and interest rate mainly for household sector, but in recent decades households ceased to be the main source of savings in the economy. We try to identify how the savings of different sectors respond to the interest rate change using the SVAR methodology. We focus on Poland and generalize the results for other European economies. We find that although the household savings rate tends to rise after an increase of interest rate, the corporate savings simultaneously fall, inducing a negative conditional correlation between them. The responses of savings rate of general government and foreign savings are diverse (although the former usually declines after an interest rate increase) and does not seem to be related to factors like the membership in the currency union or the level of public debt. We also check the existence of the ‘crowding-out’ effects and conclude it only applies in the case of government savings crowding out household savings.
This paper presents a review of geophysical studies of the crust and the lithosphere- asthenosphere boundary (LAB) in the ocean-continent transition in the area of Spitsbergen (Svalbard Archipelago) in high Arctic. Over last decades many investigations were performed during Polish geophysical expeditions, as well as in the framework of international cooperation with scientists from Germany, Japan, Norway and USA. We compiled here existing seismic, gravity and thermal models down to LAB depth along the 800 km long transect extending from the actively spreading Knipovich Ridge, across southern Spitsbergen to the Kong Karls Land Volcanic Province. The results of all methods are very consistent, although they are sensitive to different physical parameters: seismic wave velocities, densities and thermal. The thinnest lithosphere of only 12 km is found beneath the Knipovich Ridge. Only 50 km to the west and 50 km to the east of the ridge the LAB depth increases to about 30 km, and this value corresponds to the oceanic structure of the North Atlantic Ocean. Beneath southern Spitsbergen the LAB depth is about 55 km and increases to 90–100 km beneath continental structure of the Barents Sea. The uplift of the LAB close to distance of 700 km along transect could be correlated with Kong Karls Land Volcanic Province.