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Abstract

In the paper, we document how conditional dependencies observed in the FOREX market change during a trading day. The analysis is performed for the pairs (GBP/EUR, USD/EUR) and (GBP/USD, EUR/USD) of exchange rates. We consider daily returns calculated using the exchange rates quoted at different hours of a day. The dynamics of the dependencies is modeled by means of 3-regime Markov regime switching copula models, and the strength of the linkages is described using dynamic Spearman’s rho and the dynamic coefficients of tail dependence. The established approach allows us to monitor the changes in the dependence structure.

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Authors and Affiliations

Małgorzata Doman
Ryszard Doman
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Abstract

There are many IT tools available on the market that carry out various types of forecasts in the gas industry. Programming evolves with the availability and capability of computers. IT tools support the user in engineering calculations, but also present the obtained results in an interesting visualization, e.g. in the form of interactive charts. The software can support making business decisions, which, in turn, can be used as business intelligence. In the era of digitization, huge metadata of measurements are created, so conducting data analyzes in the energy sector is very common. Moreover, rapidly evolving artificial intelligence creates new opportunities. The article presents a sample analysis of calculations using RStudio, an integrated development environment for the R language, a programming language for statistical calculations and graphics. The aim of the article is to present the possibility of using R language software to make a forecast and to determine the quality of forecasts. The article aims to present the possibility of making forecasts based on mathematical models available in R packages and the possibilities offered by the forecasting platform to readers. The article presents the U.S. market and has a particular focus on Natural Gas Residential Consumption in Pennsylvania (publicly available data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration). This dataset represents the monthly consumption of natural gas between 2015 and 2020. Forecasts were presented over a span of 12 months.
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Authors and Affiliations

Tomasz Chrulski
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Faculty of Drilling, Oil and Gas, University of Science and Technology AGH, Kraków, Poland
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Abstract

This paper presents a numerical analysis on turbulent flow and forced-convection characteristics of rectangular solar air heater tube fitted with staggered, transverse, V-shape, modern obstacles on the heated walls. Air, whose Prandtl number is 0.71, is the working fluid used, and the Reynolds number considered equal to 6×103. The governing flow equations are solved using a finite volume approach and the semi-implicit pressure linked equation (SIMPLE) algorithm. With regard to the flow characteristics, the quadratic upstream interpolation for convective kinetics differencing scheme (QUICK) was applied, and a second-order upwind scheme (SOU) was used for the pressure terms. The dynamic thermo-energy behavior of the V-shaped baffles with various flow attack angles, i.e., 50°, 60°, 70°, and 80° are simulated, analyzed, and compared with those of the conventional flat rectangular baffles with attack value of 90°. In all situations, the thermal transfer rate was found to be much larger than unity; its maximum value was around 3.143 for the flow attack angle of 90° and y = H/2.

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Authors and Affiliations

Younes Menni
Ali J. Chamkha
Chafika Zidani
Boumédiène Benyoucef

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