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Abstrakt

In this paper we present a copula-based model for a binary and a continuous variable in a time series setup. Within this modeling framework both marginals can be equipped with their own dynamics whereas the contemporaneous dependence between both processes can be flexibly captured via a copula function. We propose a method for testing the goodness-of-fit of such a time series model using probability integral transforms (PIT). This verification procedure allows not only a verification of the goodness-of-fit of the estimated marginal distribution for a continuous variable but also the conditional distribution of a continuous variable given the outcome of its binary counterpart (i.e. the adequacy of the copula choice). We test the model on an empirical example: investigating the relationship between trading volume and the indicators of arbitrarily ’large’ price movements on the interbank EUR/PLN spot market.

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Autorzy i Afiliacje

Katarzyna Bień-Barkowska

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