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Abstract

The growth of the global population, urbanization as well as economic and industrial development, affect the continuously increasing demand for mineral aggregates. The current assessed global production of mineral aggregates amounts to 50 billion Mg/year, which statistically approximates 6.5 Mg per an inhabitant of the globe. In terms of consumption volume, water is the only raw material ahead of aggregates. Despite such a great scale, in many countries and regions the extraction and production of aggregates belong to the least regulated sector of human activity. This refers particularly to the countries of A sia, A frica, and North A merica, where both the resources and the extraction of aggregates, particularly of sand and gravels, are either not monitored and registered. It significantly increases the negative impact on the natural environment, due to the destruction of riverbeds and oxbows, coastal erosion, drying up cultivation areas, etc. In the reports, local terminology of aggregates often functions, which makes it difficult to compare them and prepare appropriate balances. In order to regulate the unfavorable situation, one of the main conclusions of the Report (UNEP 2019) is the need of implementing a common requirement to plan and monitor the process of extraction of natural resources. The paper presents the possibility of forecasting the extraction and producing aggregates based on the consumption of cement, i.e. the basic building material. A lthough the analyzed coefficient of mineral aggregate production per unit of cement consumption (production) varies, its advantage is the fact that the production of cement is identified and taken into account in balances of industrial production of the majority of countries, whereas such identification for mineral aggregate production are still lacking.

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Authors and Affiliations

Ireneusz Ryszard Baic
ORCID: ORCID
Wiesław Kozioł
ORCID: ORCID
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Abstract

The document presents current methods of forecasting aggregate production, mainly depending on the size and dynamics of changes in GDP. With a view to developing more accurate forecasts, this article presents the dependence of extraction and consumption of mineral aggregates used in construction on two indicators: the general business climate indicator in the construction industry and the cement consumption volume. The results obtained from regression and correlation analysis turned out more favourable for the dependence of aggregates production on cement consumption. This particularly applies to the dependence of sand and gravel aggregate production and total natural aggregate production on cement consumption. Good dependence has also been confirmed for other European countries as well as for the USA. For Poland, the indicator of sand and gravel aggregates production for cement production in recent years was between 9.5 and 12 Mg/Mg. The values of this indicator vary from country to country, mainly depending on the share of different types of aggregates in total production of aggregates in construction industry. Although the indicator values vary considerably, its advantage is that cement production is identified and included in the industrial production balance sheets of most countries, which is not the case when it comes to the identification or accurate record for the production of construction aggregates. The adoption of this indicator makes it possible to monitor the extraction of natural construction aggregates for individual countries and regions more accurately, as called for – among other things – by UN resolutions.
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Bibliography


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Authors and Affiliations

Ireneusz Ryszard Baic
1
ORCID: ORCID
Wiesław Kozioł
1
ORCID: ORCID
Artur Miros
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Łukasiewicz Research Network – Institue of Mechanised Construction & Rock Mining, Warszawa, Poland

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