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Abstract

The work considers a one-dimensional time series protocol packet intensity, measured on the city backbone network. The intensity of the series is uneven. Scattering diagrams are constructed. The Dickie Fuller test and Kwiatkowski-Phillips Perron-Shin-Schmitt test were applied to determine the initial series to the class of stationary or nonstationary series. Both tests confirmed the involvement of the original series in the class of differential stationary. Based on the Dickie Fuller test and Private autocorrelation function graphs, the Integrated Moving Average Autoregression Model model is created. The results of forecasting network traffic showed the adequacy of the selected model.
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Bibliography

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[9] I Rizkya, K Syahputri, R. M.Sari, I. Siregar and J. Utaminingrum, “Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model of Forecast Demand in Distribution Centre,” Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Sumatera Utara in IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 598, 2019, 012071.
[10] N.Albanbay, B.Medetov, M. A. Zaks, “Statistics of Lifetimes for Transient Bursting States in Coupled Noisy Excitable Systems,” Journal of Computational and Nonlinear Dynamics. vol. 15, no. 12, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4047867
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Authors and Affiliations

Tansaule Serikov
1
Аinur Zhetpisbayeva
1
Ainur Аkhmediyarova
2
Sharafat Mirzakulova
3
Aigerim Kismanova
1
Aray Tolegenova
1
Waldemar Wójcik
4

  1. S.Seifullin Kazakh AgroTechnical University, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan
  2. Institute of Information and Computational Technologies, Almaty, Kazakhstan
  3. Turan University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
  4. Lublin University of Technology, Poland

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