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Abstract

The main objective of the article is to present quantified and measurable risks likelihood appearance, impact and significance of inspected and monitored 48 commercial construction projects and their feasibility to be carried out. Original technical, financial and organisational feasibility studies in compliance with a rigorous Bank Investment Supervision requirements have been executed by the author in the period of 2005–2018. Methodology of construction project appraisal for financing and execution professional preparation have been laid out – technical documentation, arrangements, realisation. Analysis and assessment of Bank Investment Supervision consisted of project execution plan PEP, geotechnical and environmental conditions, permit design, agreements and decision impacts of local authorities, engineering contract for construction works, project insurance and performance bonds, schedule of execution tasks and their costs, payment plan, investment budget and project economical effectiveness, scope of monthly construction works execution assessed by Earned Value Method approach and handover procedure of construction project. An attempt was made to express numerically the relationship between risks impacts and their level of likelihood. Also, a method of associating the influence of projects risks impacts on the extent of the likelihood of project risk occurrence which makes possible to determine the direction and the strength of this relationship was presented. Finally, risks likelihood appearance, impact and significance variability of commercial construction projects within last two years of booming investment industry have been determined.

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Authors and Affiliations

J. Konior
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Abstract

A group of old apartment houses with the age over 100 years (that is those carried out before the First World War) takes an important place in polish building resources. Technical maintenance of apartment houses, traditional methods erected, is nowadays and will be a valid problem in the nearest future. The results of the work refer to the general population, estimated for 600 objects, that is about 20% of municipal downtown apartment houses in Wrocław.

The purpose of the research was to identify an influence of widely considered maintenance of apartment houses on a degree and intensity of their elements’ deterioration. The goal of the work has been fulfilled by symptoms’ analysis of declining of inspected elements’ exploitation values, that is identification of mechanics of their defects arising.

The range of the work has required creation of original qualitative model of pinpointed defects and its transfer into quantitative one. It has made possible to analyse the reason - effect phenomena „defect - technical wear” relevant to the most important elements of Wroclaw downtown district’s apartment houses. The research procedure has been conducted in accordance of fuzzy sets theory which made possible to describe qualitative model of pinpointed defects and its transfer into a quantitative one.

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Authors and Affiliations

J. Konior
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Abstract

The purpose of this article is to present the preparation of Project Risk Assessment Methodology and its mitigation in complex construction projects. The main text provides a summary of the approach, the method used and the findings. The conclusions have been drawn that the proper tools for quantifying risks have to be based on the criteria specific for mathematical statistic and probability or at least fuzziness. Function, which makes possible to categorize any risks into one of the five categories, is a combination of probability and the impact on one of the items: people and their safety or budget, cost, schedule and planning or quality and performance. An attempt was made to express numerically the relationship between risks impacts and their level of likelihood. Also, a method of associating the influence of projects risks impacts on the extent of the likelihood of project risk occurrence which makes possible to determine the direction and the strength of this relationship was presented.

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Authors and Affiliations

J. Konior
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Abstract

Supplementing well recognised practical models of project and construction management, based on probabilistic and fuzzy events may make possible to transfer the weight of the change and extra orders assessment from the qualitative form to a quantitative one. This assessment, however, is naturally burdened with an immeasurable, subjective aspect. Elaboration of probability of occurrence in a construction project unforeseen building works requires application (in addition to the non-measureable, qualitative criteria) of measurable (quantitative) criteria which still appear during construction project implementation. In reimbursable engineering contracts, a random event described as an extra, supplementary building work has a random character and occurs with a specific likelihood. In lump sum contracts, on the other hand, such a random event has a fuzzy character and its occurrence is defined in a linear manner by the function of affiliation to the set of fuzzy events being identical with unforeseen events. The strive for quantitative presentation of criteria regarded by nature as qualitative and the intention to determine relations between them led to the application of the fuzzy sets theory to this issue. Their properties enable description of the unforeseen works of construction projects in an unambiguous, quantitative way.

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Authors and Affiliations

J. Konior

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