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Abstract

Seasonality is a function of a time series in which the data experiences regular and predictable

changes that repeat each calendar year. Two-stage stochastic programming model

for real industrial systems at the case of a seasonal demand is presented. Sampling average

approximation (SAA) method was applied to solve a stochastic model which gave a productive

structure for distinguishing and statistically testing a different production plan. Lingo

tool is developed to obtain the optimal solution for the proposed model which is validated

by Math works Matlab. The actual data of the industrial system; from the General Manufacturing

Company, was applied to examine the proposed model. Seasonal future demand

is then estimated using the multiplicative seasonal method, the effect of seasonality was

presented and discussed. One might say that the proposed model is viewed as a moderately

accurate tool for industrial systems in case of seasonal demand. The current research may

be considered a significant tool in case of seasonal demand. To illustrate the applicability of

the proposed model a numerical example is solved using the proposed technique. ANOVA

analysis is applied using MINITAB 17 statistical software to validate the obtained results.

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Authors and Affiliations

Asmaa A. Mahmoud
Mohamed F. Aly
Ahmed M. Mohib
Islam H. Afefy

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