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Abstract

The objective of the paper is to evaluate the implications of trade liberalization under the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) for the Polish economy. We analyze the level of tariffs and non-tariff protection in the US and in the EU and identify products particularly “sensitive” from the point of view of TTIP liberalization. With the help of a partial equilibrium model, we simulate the trade implications of the TTIP for Poland’s trade with the US at the detailed product level. We analyze trade creation and diversion effects of tariff elimination and partial removal of non-tariff barriers. We found that the TTIP can increase Poland’s trade with the US by around 45 percent with a limited impact on its trade with the European Union (EU) members. Subsequent general equilibrium simulations show that trade diversion effects of the TTIP are substantial, while the welfare benefits of the agreement are limited.
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Authors and Affiliations

Jan Hagemejer
1 2
ORCID: ORCID
Jan Jakub Michałek
1
ORCID: ORCID
Karolina Pawlak
3
ORCID: ORCID

  1. University of Warsaw, Poland
  2. CASE Center for Economic and Social Research, Warsaw, Poland
  3. Poznan University of Life Sciences, Poland
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Abstract

In this paper we study the relationship between foreign firm ownership and innovation activities in a wide group of West European and Central and East European countries. Based on a dataset including more than 100,000 firms covered by the 2014 edition of the Community Innovation Survey, we examine the role of home- and host country effects in firms’ decisions to introduce various forms of innovation. In addition, we identify a group of foreign-owned firms that specialize in exporting and interpret them as participants of hierarchic global value chains organized by multinational enterprises. We show that while foreign direct investment, especially from Germany, is positively associated with innovation, the opposite effect is observed in the case of hierarchic global value chains’ participants. The negative impact of within-multinationals global value chains on innovation is more pronounced in the affiliates located in the Central and East European countries.
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Authors and Affiliations

Andrzej Cieślik
1
ORCID: ORCID
Jan Jakub Michałek
1
ORCID: ORCID
Krzysztof Szczygielski
1
ORCID: ORCID
Jacek Lewkowicz
1
ORCID: ORCID
Jerzy Mycielski
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Warsaw, Poland

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