We built a logistic regression Early Warning Models (EWM) for banking crises in a panel of 47 countries based on data from 1970-2014 using candidate variables that cover macro and financial market indicators. We find that VIX, a proxy of global risk-premium, has a strong signalling properties and that low VIX (low price of risk) increases likelihood of crisis. It does not only mean that stability leads to instability, but that this tends to be a global rather than a domestic phenomenon. We also find that particularly high contribution of financial sector to GDP growth often precedes crises, suggesting that such instances are primarily driven by excessive risk taking by financial sector and may not necessarily be sustainable. Other variables that feature prominently include credit and residential prices. Models using multiple variable clearly outperform single variable models, with probability of correct signal extraction exceeding 0.9. Our setting includes country-specific information without using country-specific effects in a regression, which allows for direct application of EWM we obtain to any country, including these that have not experienced a banking crisis.

This paper presents the results of research regarding measurements of the values of pressure drops during horizontal flow of gas-liquid and gas-liquid-liquid mixture through 180o pipe bends. The conducted insightful analysis and assessment during multi-phase flow in pipe bends has enabled to develop a new method for determination of their values. This new method for determining pressure drops ensures higher precision of calculation in comparison to other methods presented in literature and can be applied for calculation of these parameters during multi-phase flows in pipe bends with various geometries.

This paper reports the results of research involving observations of flow patterns during air-oil-water three-phase flow through a vertical pipe with an internal diameter of 0.03 m and a length of 3 m. The conductometric method based on the measurement of electrical conductivity of the gas-liquid-liquid system was used to evaluate the flow patterns. In the studies, a set of eight probes spaced concentrically in two tube sections (four probes per each) with a spacing of 0.015 m were used. The paper presents a theoretical description of the test method and the analysis of the measurement results for air-oil-water multiphase flow system. Results of this study indicate that the developed method of characterizing the voltage of the gas-liquid-liquid system can be an important tool supporting other methods to identify flow patterns, including visual observation.