The paper deals with the problem of production material flow management. The proper way of logistic tasks management has an impact on the production process effectiveness and the cycle time, which is a very important factor in manufacturing. Reducing the production process cycle time results not only in the ability to provide more customers with orders but also in increasing the level of resources usage (machines, operators etc.). In order to reach the aim of improving production effectiveness, the simulation modeling was used. It is a computer method that supports a decision-making process and allows to perform experiments on production without interfering with the real process. The paper also includes a risk analysis performed to evaluate the imperfections of simulation modeling, based on the rules of fuzzy logic.