Reservoirs have a very important function in providing multi-sector water requirements. In the future, reservoirs not only serve to store and available water can also be used as disaster mitigation instruments. The completeness of hydrological measurements in reservoirs can be expanded more widely for climate change mitigation. The reliability of the reservoir capacity varies greatly depending on the El-Nino character that occurs among them El-Nino is weak, moderate, strong and very strong. The El-Nino characteristic is very influential on the period of water availability, the increase of evaporation capacity and decrease of reservoir capacity. Analysis of the reliability of the reservoir volume due to El-Nino using the Weibull equation. The deficit reservoir was calculated using the concept of water balance in the reservoir that is the relationship between inflow, outflow, and change of storage at the same time. Based on the results of the analysis showed that the evaporation increase and the decrease of reservoir capacity had a different pattern that is when the evaporation capacity started to increase at the same time the reservoir capacity decreased significantly. The correlation coefficient between evaporation capacity increase and decrease of reservoir water capacity are consecutively –0.828, –0.636, and –0.777 for El- Nino weak, moderate and very strong respectively. At the reservoir capacity reliability of 50% reservoir has a significant deficit. When weak El-Nino the deficit is 2.30∙106 m3, moderate: 6.58∙106 m3, and very strong 8.85∙106 m3.