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Abstract

The purpose of the article was to characterize the international steam coal market based on the latest available data. The information goes back to the first half of 2018. The article focuses on the description of the three largest exporters and importers of steam coal. Representatives in these categories were selected using the latest global statistics on 2017. In 2017, global production of steam coal amounted to 5.68 billion tons and exceeded production in 2016 by 4%. For several years, invariably the world’s leading exporters of steam coal are: Indonesia, Australia and Russia. In total, these three countries in 2017 supplied 73% of steam coal to the international market. However, for the 46% of global steam coal imports (data for 2017), three Asian countries are responsible: China, India and Japan. For each of the six listed countries (i.e. for: three major global exporters and three major global importers), the paper presents volumes related to coal production, export or import. The directions of deliveries or major coal exporters to a given country were also included. At the end of the article, the price situation was presented, as it appeared in the first half of 2018 on the European and Asian markets.

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Authors and Affiliations

Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
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Abstract

Po energetyce zawodowej sektor drobnych odbiorców jest drugim ważnym konsumentem węgla energetycznego w Polsce, w latach 2005–2015 zużywającym 10,3–14,3 mln ton węgla (15– –22% w skali kraju). Statystycznie wyróżniane są w nim trzy grupy konsumentów: gospodarstwa domowe, rolnictwo oraz tzw. pozostali odbiorcy, z których najbardziej znaczącą rolę odgrywają gospodarstwa domowe (77–81% rocznego zużycia węgla przez cały sektor). Udział rolnictwa wynosił 12–14% (1,4–1,8 mln ton węgla na rok), a pozostałe kilka procent – grupa pozostałych odbiorców (0,9–1,1 mln ton). Zużycie węgla w całym sektorze, jak również w każdej z grup statystycznych zróżnicowane jest zarówno pod względem regionalnym, jak również wojewódzkim. Pod względem wolumenu największe zużycie węgla przypada na gospodarstwa domowe z regionu N-E (1,9– –2,9 mln ton). W przypadku rolnictwa są to regiony północne (57–62%; łącznie: 0,8–1,1 mln ton węgla/rok). W artykule przeprowadzono także szacunkowy podział mieszkań wg trzech nośników głównych nośników energii zużytych w celach grzewczych: paliwa stałe (dominuje węgiel kamienny), ciepło sieciowe i gaz ziemny. Stwierdzono, że pod względem regionalnym największym udziałem mieszkań opalanych węglem kamiennym dysponują dwa regiony (reg. S-W i N-E; po 26%). Obliczono także koszty ogrzewania przykładowego domu jednorodzinnego położonego na wsi. Wzięto pod uwagę te nośniki energii, które są najbardziej dostępne dla obszarów wiejskich. W wyniku analizy stwierdzono, że węgiel kamienny byłby jednym z najtańszych paliw. Koszty rocznego ogrzewania domu węglem grubym, czy ekogroszkiem nie przekroczyłyby 3 tys. złotych/rok (wg cen z 2016 r.).
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Authors and Affiliations

Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
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Abstract

Households are the most significant group of consumers in the municipal and household sector in

Poland. In 2010-2016, households consumed annually from 8.9 to 10.8 million Mg of coal (77-81%

share in this sector).

As of the beginning of 2018, seven voivodships in Poland have already introduced anti-smog resolutions,

one has its draft, three are considering introduction of such resolutions. In the face of introducing

anti-smog resolutions, the analysis of coal consumption by households was conducted for a situation

where anti-smog resolutions will be introduced in all voivodships in Poland.

A forecast of hard coal consumption by Polish households in 2017-2030 was presented in the article.

Two scenarios differentiated in terms of calorific value of coal were taken into account: (i) concerned coal

with a calorific value of 24 MJ/kg (min. Q for eco-pea coal: grain size 5.0-31.5 mm), (ii) – coals with

a calorific value of 26 MJ/kg (Q recommended for use by producers of class 5 boilers).

In the perspective of 2030, the largest decrease in hard coal consumption can be expected (jointly)

in the voivodships of Śląskie, Dolnośląskie, Opolskie and Lubuskie. Under the assumptions made, in

relation to 2016, it may be reduced by half and fall from 2.8 to the level of 1.4-1.5 million Mg. The

smallest decreases in consumption may occur (jointly) in the Małopolskie, Lubelskie, Podkarpackie and

Świętokrzyskie voivodships – decrease by 16-22% and fall from 2.6 to approximately 1.9-2.0 million Mg.

On a national scale, coal consumption may decrease from the current 10.4 (2016) to around 6.3-6.8 million

Mg (a decrease of 30-35%).

Despite the decrease in hard coal consumption in the 2030 perspective, one should expect an increase

in demand for high quality coal dedicated to modern boilers (usually pea assortments) as well as qualified

coal fuels (mainly eco-pea coal).

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Authors and Affiliations

Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
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Abstract

The paper presents an analysis of hard coal prices offered at the coal depots in Poland. Coal depots are one of the most popular forms of purchasing coal by Polish households. Prices refer to price offers for cobble coal (grain size: 60–120 mm) and their analysis is performed based on the regions rather than on all Polish provinces. From January 2010 to May 2019, there were two regions that were distinguished in terms of price spread: the S-W region and the N-E region. In the case of the S-W region, the difference between the province with the minimum price (Śląskie Province) and with the maximum price (Dolnośląskie Province since September 2017) ranged from PLN 53–83/ton, and in the N-E region the difference ranged PLN 64–130/ton. In the case of the remaining two regions, prices varied from a few to approximately PLN 80/ton for the N-W region, and from a few to about PLN 40 /ton for the S-E region. In order to determine how the origin of the coal affects its prices (domestic coal, imported coal), the analysis also included cobble coal price offers that are part of the Author’s own database created for several years. In the case of cobble coal from domestic producers, price offers varied betwwen PLN 14–33/GJ, and price offers for imported cobble coal stood varied between PLN 12–32/GJ. The N-E region attracted particular attention as the price offers for imported cobble coal reached a level similar to the offers from the S-W region, i.e. the region closest to Silesian coal mines. Price differentials within provinces belonging to a given region were influenced by the geographical rent. The paper also analyses average selling prices offered by domestic producers for various size grades of steam coal as well as selling prices for imported coal (free-at-frontier price).

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Authors and Affiliations

Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
ORCID: ORCID
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Abstract

Russia’s use of one of its energy resources as a tool of political pressure in 2021 destabilized the economies of many European countries. The energy crisis was exacerbated by the outbreak of Russia’s war with Ukraine in February 2022, when many countries, including those of the EU, responded by imposing sanctions on energy resources from Russia. The situation also affected Polish households. Until then, Russia had been Poland’s main supplier of coal and natural gas. It is estimated that 3.8 million households were threatened by the uncertainty of hard-coal supplies for the 2022/2023 heating season. The article presents an analysis of the supply and demand of the main fossil energy resources consumed by Polish households for heating purposes. Discussing the supply of a given raw material, both domestic production and imports are presented. The inability to increase domestic coal production for households in the short term (it is a long-term process) resulted in the introduction of intervention imports. In the case of imports, attention was paid to the need to change suppliers as well as import routes. The article also analyzes the prices of major energy carriers for domestic households from January 2018 to March 2023. Rapidly rising prices of hard coal at fuel depots in the third and fourth quarters of 2022 were higher than natural gas prices for households by PLN 13–16/GJ and amounted to PLN 81–101/GJ. By comparison, natural gas prices were then in the range of 65–88 PLN/GJ. In the first quarter of 2023, the prices of these two energy carriers had already reached a similar level (in the order of 80 PLN/GJ).
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Authors and Affiliations

Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland
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Abstract

A significant part of hard coal production (15–19% in the years 2010–2017, i.e. 1.0–1.3 billion

tons per year) is traded on the international market. The majority of coal trade takes place by sea,

accounting for 91–94% of the total coal trade. The article discusses the share of coal in international

seaborne trade and the largest coal ports. Coal is one the five major bulk commodities (in addition

to iron ore, grain, bauxite, alumina, and phosphate rock). In the years 2010–2016, the share of coal

in international seaborne trade and major bulk commodities was 36–41% and 11–12%, respectively.

Based on the analysis of coal throughput in different ports worldwide, the ports with the

largest throughput include the ports of Qinhuangdao (China), Newcastle (Australia), and Richards

Bay (South Africa). For 2013–2017, their throughput amounted to a total of 411–476 million tons

of coal. The largest coal exporting countries were: Australia, Indonesia, Russia, Colombia, South

Africa, and the US (a total of 85% share in global coal exports), while the largest importers are

Asian countries: China, India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan (a 64% share in global imports). In

Europe, Germany is the largest importer of coal (54 million tons imported in 2016). The article also

discusses the freight costs and the bulk carrier fleet. Taking the price of coal at the recipient’s (i.e.

at the importer’s port) into account, the share of freight costs in the CIF price of steam coal (the

price of a good delivered at the frontier of the importing country) was at the level of 10–14%. In

the years 2010–2016, the share of bulk carriers in the world fleet was in the range of 11–15%. In

terms of tonnage, bulk carriers accounted for 31–35% of the total tonnage of all types of ships in

the world. The share of new (1–4 years) bulk carriers in the total number of ships on a global scale

in the years 2010–2016 was 29–46%.

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Authors and Affiliations

Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
Zbigniew Grudziński
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Abstract

Biomass is one of the most frequently used sources of renewable energy. For centuries, wood has been used by people to heat their homes, and nowadays it is also used to generate electricity. The article discusses legal issues related to biomass, classification of biomass for energy purposes, quality parameters of selected ecological fuels, quality requirements for biomass, as well as biomass trade in the world. The article compares the quality requirements for biomass purchased by individual companies from the power sector (mainly dimensions, calorific value, moisture content, ash content, sulfur and chlorine). An analysis of the price of wood pellets on international markets, represented by the biomass stock exchanges: RBCN, EEX and BALTPOOL was also performed. The market analysis clearly shows that the international market for industrial pellets is dominated by intercontinental trade, which mainly concerns exchanges between the United States of America as a producer and Europe as a consumer. The largest amount of biomass is imported by the United Kingdom, mainly for its Drax biomass power plant, and this biomass comes from the USA and Canada. In addition to Great Britain, significant importers of wood pellets are the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark. Judging by the interest of Polish energy companies in the purchase of biomass, also in Poland, the development of the biomass market should be expected.

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Authors and Affiliations

Tadeusz Olkuski
Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
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Abstract

The article presents an analysis of Russia’s participation in international steam coal trade, which has been its important participant for years. The research covered the years 2014–2018. The geographical location on two continents and the availability of coal deposits, favors its presence on both the Pacific and Atlantic markets. The article also discusses the main coal producers in Russia and the prices of Russian steam coal directed to the spot market. Due to the significant share of coal exports for the Russian economy, the focus was also on analyzing Russian seaports.

In recent years, Asian exports have dominated in Russian steam coal exports. The share of export to this market in the years 2014–2018 was in the range of 49–57% (60–87 million tons). Currently, three countries play an important role among Asian countries: South Korea, China and J apan. They purchased a total of 38–52 million tons of Russian coal. Although in the years under analysis Russia exported 52–67 million tons of steam coal to the European market, the share of this market dropped from almost half to around 40%. T he slow departure from coal energy contributes to reducing the share of recipients from this direction. Among European countries, in 2014 the main direction of export was Great Britain with 19% (24 million tons) of total export share. In 2018, exports fell to 9 million tons (5%).

Among European destinations for Russian coal, Poland’s share is growing in importance. In the years 2014–2018, steam coal exports to Poland varied in the range of 5.6–16.2 million tons. In the years 2014–2018 it changed in the range of 5.6–16.2 million tons. The dynamic growth achieved in the last three years is noteworthy. In relation to 2016, imports increased by 10.0 million tons and in 2018 amounted to as much as 16.1 million tons. The article also discusses the geographical structure of coal imports to Poland by railway border crossings and seaports.

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Authors and Affiliations

Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
Zbigniew Grudziński
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Abstract

Observing the situation in the power industry it is easy to see that there are very deep changes in it. They rely primarily on moving away from conventional energy to renewable energy. This is particularly the case for energy in the European Union. Europe strives to be a forerunner in renewable technologies and a leader in the fight against global warming. The mining industry is being abolished and coal-fired power stations are being displaced by renewable energy sources. This situation is not only a result of EU directives but also of grassroots social initiatives inspired by environmental groups. The new lignite openings are being blocked, due to the lack of public acceptance, and the construction of conventional power plants. They do not help economic arguments for the development of energy based on coal, lignite, fuel that is significantly cheaper than the other, or to provide potential investors with the creation of new jobs. Also, coal investments are suspended in other regions of the world. CoalSwarm coal research shows that 2016 saw a dramatic fall in the amount of coal investment in the world. Even in China and India, where most of the coal industry has developed in recent years, about 100 investments have been suspended. The situation in the US is unclear. Although Barack Obama signed the Paris Agreement, current United States President Donal Trump has spoken out about this agreement and in numerous speeches and is eager to return to the dominant role of coal in the American economy. Poland still maintains the carbon structure of the power industry, but the Minister of Energy has announced that the new block at the Ostrołęka power plant will be the last coal-fired power plant to be built in Poland. This statement allows us to believe that there may be a return to Poland’s energy policy in the nearest future, and the long-awaited document, Poland’s energy policy until 2050, will determine the direction of change for the coming years.

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Authors and Affiliations

Tadeusz Olkuski
Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
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Abstract

Approximately 95% of international trade in steam coal is concentrated in two areas: Asia-Pacific and Atlantic. Prices on the international market depend on the largest exporters and users of coal. The aim of the article is to characterize the price trends that took place in the international trade of energy coal in the years 2000–2020 and to distinguish price indices which, in the opinion of the authors, currently play an important role in this trade. The analysis of steam coal prices in international markets in 2000–2020 made it possible to highlight five periods of rising prices, four periods of falling prices, and one period of the stabilisation of prices. A detailed analysis of the highlighted periods of steam coal price fluctuations in 2000–2020 made it possible to identify groups of factors that significantly affect the level of prices of the analyzed coal in the long term. International steam coal markets are interlinked despite periodic volatility. A very important factor influencing world steam coal prices is the situation in China as it is the largest producer, user and importer of steam coal. A small change in coal production in China significantly affects the volume of trade on the international market. Therefore, the level of freight prices is an important factor influencing the price level for the customer. FOB Australia prices are also correlated with coal suppliers to the European market and Asia-Pacific market in this paper. The very high correlation coefficients obtained confirm the close relationship between the prices of these coals. For many years, the European market has no longer been a trendsetter in international coal markets but has instead been affected by general trends.
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Authors and Affiliations

Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
1
ORCID: ORCID
Zbigniew Grudziński
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
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Abstract

The aim of this article is to provide an overview of other alternative directions of coal supply to Poland following the February 2022 embargo on coal imports from Russia. Due to the dominant role of steam coal in imports to Poland, the authors focused on this type of coal. Analysis of the share of Russian steam coal imported into Poland in domestic consumption and production suggests that this commodity has played a relatively important role in the Polish market. In 2010–2021, between 4.8 and 12.9 million tonnes were imported annually from Russia to Poland, accounting for 8–25% of domestic steam-coal consumption. In 2018–2021, steam coal imported into Poland accounted for 22–29% of the volume of coal shipped by Russia to all EU -27 countries. In order to fill the gap left by Russian coal, this article considers alternative routes of coal supply to Poland, namely from Australia, Indonesia, Colombia, South Africa and the US, and presents the qualitative characteristics of the coal offered by these alternative routes of coal supply and traded on the international market. Between 2010 and 2021, steam-coal-price offers from these countries followed a consistent trend, with the difference between the minimum and maximum offer ranging from USD 5–32/tonne. As the steam coal supply of each of the analyzed routes of supply is fraught with some risk, the authors have also identified in the article those directions that may present some difficulties. It was found that coal offerings from Australia, South Africa, Indonesia and Colombia have low sulphur content (less than 1%), while coals from Australia and South Africa have relatively high ash content (from 12% to nearly 25%). Towards the end, the article also addresses issues related to the transport of coal to Poland and its dispatching within the country. As the analyzed alternative directions of coal imports involve importing this commodity by sea, the authors also analyzed the reloading capacity of Polish seaports and the rail transport fleet.
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Authors and Affiliations

Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
1
ORCID: ORCID
Zbigniew Grudziński
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
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Abstract

The article analyzes trends in steam coal flows (exports and imports) linked to production and consumption volumes. The analysis carried out in the article took the years from 2000 to 2019 into consideration. Coal is the second most important energy carrier. Its share in the structure of global consumption amounts to 27% and its production has an upward trend despite its decreasing share. The overall global upward trend of steam coal flows was disrupted twice over the period 2000–2019: by the effects of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis and the ongoing uncertainty of the global economy, as well as by the significant slowdown in the economic growth of developing countries (2014–2016). The European Union has seen large decreases in coal consumption over recent years, reflecting an accelerating decarbonization policy. The main area of coal trade is the Asia-Pacific basin. The Atlantic market currently accounts for about 20% of global steam coal trade, with seaborne trade covering about 95%. The volume of world trade (exports, imports) in steam coal is approximately one billion (bn) tons per year. The analysis carried out showed the following trend: decreasing coal exports to economically developed countries (mainly concentrated in Europe) and increasing exports to economies of developing countries, concentrated in the Asian part of the world. International Energy Agency (IE A) projections show that by 2040 the global coal production will fall from 5.6bn tons of coal equivalent (3.9bn tons of oil equivalent in 2019) to 5bn tce (3.5bn toe) at an average annual rate of –1.1%. Steam coal production is expected to decline by 10% to 4bn tce (2.8bn toe). Due to the fact that China is the largest producer, user and importer of steam coal in the world, all economic and political decisions taken by its government have strongly influenced international coal trade for years. For the Asia-Pacific basin alone, the IE A’s long-term forecasts predict an increase in coal-fired power generation over 2019. Forecasts regarding the coal’s share in global demand are not optimistic for many regions of the world (Europe, Africa, the Americas), predicting a significant decline in its demand. Yet, new markets for coal are emerging, especially in Asia and the Mediterranean basin, which may contribute to maintaining at least the current level of coal trade.
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Authors and Affiliations

Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
1
ORCID: ORCID
Zbigniew Grudziński
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland

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