This paper presents the main dilemma of development of the Polish energy sector on the 20th anniversary of the first liberalization directive of the European Union, which created the energy market. The situation in the Polish energy sector based on fossil fuels, its transformation into lower emission one is closely connected to the process of restructuring and further development of the mining sector. On the other hand, we are witnessing the development of RES, household installations producing electricity with storage and the electrification of public transport. The investments in new, large scale fossil fuel fired power plants are very expensive and not economically proven when electricity prices are low. Until the new direction of investment in energy sector will be decided, the option of the lasting of the operating existing power units seems to be a good proposal. Is the thesis: “The energy security of Poland should be fully based on indigenous sources, generation and distribution assets, delivering electricity to end users. Ensuring competitive energy prices to the economy and households, the market should be fully open to producers and consumers, including chip electricity arising from the European single market” the right assumption for the Polish energy policy?

The paper presents a brief outline of the European Union Climate and Energy Package in early 2020, as well as the EU’s plans in this respect until 2030 (Winter Package and Green Deal) and even further until 2050 (EU’s climate neutral target). Also the current condition of power generation in Poland and challenges for Polish energy sector in the nearest future are discussed. The Energy Policy of Poland until 2040 (EPP 2040) is analysed in relation to possible risks and dangers. Some improvements are proposed in regard to the implementation of the document. In addition, the current volume and perspectives of hard coal and lignite mining in Poland until 2040 are discussed and compared with an expected demand for coal in Polish power plants and combined heat and power stations. On the basis of the prognosis of energy consumption in the period 2031-2040, there seems to appear a serious risk of energy shortage due to a possible delay in a nuclear power project and lack of lignite mining at the level defined in EPP 2040 policy. Therefore, some variants of providing the security of energy supplies are taken into account and thoroughly analysed in the paper.

The article assesses the production capacity of the Polish Power System, taking into account the military operations in Ukraine and the related resource crisis. An analysis was made of how the war in Ukraine will affect the validity of Poland’s energy policy adopted a year ago. The sensitivity of the Polish Energy System to the import of energy resources from Russia was assessed as well as the possibilities of filling the gap caused by the lack of these raw materials were described and measures were proposed. It shows how electricity prices in the EU countries developed in the last year and what the energy mix of these countries looked like. Alternative scenarios for the transformation of the domestic system were discussed, including the coal – renewable energy – nuclear energy scenario, with the minimization of gas as a fuel of the transition period.

The paper discusses a variety of serious challenges facing the Polish energy sector until 2040. These challenging tasks largely result from intensive works in the European Union on the finalisation of measures implementing a zero-carbon economy, as well as social (Covid-19), political and military events, both global and regional (war in Ukraine). After analysing the present condition of the energy sector, the authors proposed a modification of Poland’s energy policy, pointing out that the transformation of the national electricity system towards zero-carbon energy requires, on the one hand, speeding up investments in renewable sources, but on the other hand, insuring this process by own controllable generation sources. The paper also defines the conditions that should be met to achieve the highest possible share of non-carbon energy in the national energy mix by 2040.