The aspect of climate change in the modern world is one of the broader issues of global social and economic policy. Climate change implies a modification of the business environment, especially the energy sector. Any change in the conditions in which the company operates is the cause, the effect of which becomes its financial situation during the relevant period. Therefore, climate policy will play an increasingly important role in shaping the energy of the future. At present, energy companies are taking measures to process primary energy from fossil fuels, in particular coal, in an efficient and environmentally friendly way. The article presents the impact of international climate agreements on the energy and coal industries. The latest agreement signed in Paris defines a global plan to minimize the dangerous effects of global warming on the climate arising from carbon emissions. The most important outcome of the agreement was the unification of many countries with a common goal. The European Union played a key role in signing the first legally binding agreement in the world, which is also a forerunner in the carbon trading system: EU ETS (European Union Emission Trading Scheme) The US-based CO2 emissions trading system has become a model for the European Commission. In addition, the article highlights the correlation between the EUA ( European Union Allowances) and “ARA coal” prices as well as the role of the coal market in price formation of emission allowances.

The article has presented the assumptions underlying the organization of emissions trading of greenhouse gases with a particular emphasis on CO2 emission allowances. Through the analysis of the literature, international activities were undertaken aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, starting from the First World Climate Conference organized in 1979. The origins and guidelines of the Kyoto Protocol were also given considerable attention. In addition to the description of the key assumptions of the Protocol and its main components, the characteristics of international trade in Kyoto units were also included. The mechanisms involved in international trade and the types of units traded in a detailed manner are described. In the next part of the article, emission trading systems operating in the world are characterized. In the second part of the paper special attention was paid to the conditionings of the European market, i.e. European Emissions Trading System – EU ETS. Historical events were presented that gave rise to the creation of the EU ETS. In the next steps, the types of units that are tradable were described. Furthermore, the trade commodity exchanges on which trade is conducted, the key factors determining the price of individual allowances are also indicated. In the last part of the article, relatively recent issues – the IED Directive and the BAT conclusions have been pointed out. Referring to the applicable regulations, the impact of their implementation on the situation of entities obliged to limit greenhouse gas emissions was analyzed. In the final phase, an attempt was made to assess the impact of IED and BAT to electricity prices.

W artykule przedstawiono zarys funkcjonowania oraz ewolucję unijnego systemu handlu uprawnieniami do emisji gazów cieplarnianych (EU ETS – European Union Emissions Trading System). Od 2005 r. jest on podstawowym instrumentem polityki energetyczno-klimatycznej Unii Europejskiej. Zaprezentowano wniosek ustawodawczy Komisji Europejskiej z 15 lipca 2015 r. w sprawie zmiany dyrektywy o systemie handlu uprawnieniami do emisji oraz proces jego legislacji. Zgodnie z wnioskiem wytyczne Rady Europejskiej co do roli EU ETS w osiąganiu założeń dotyczących ograniczania emisji gazów cieplarnianych do 2030 r. miałyby stać się wiążące. Proponowane zmiany miałyby także sprzyjać innowacjom i wykorzystaniu technologii niskoemisyjnych, dzięki czemu powstałyby nowe możliwości w zakresie zatrudnienia i wzrostu gospodarczego. Jednocześnie utrzymane miałyby zostać niezbędne środki chroniące konkurencyjność przemysłu w Europie. Omówiono istotne poprawki wprowadzone do wniosku przez komisje Parlamentu Europejskiego: Komisję Przemysłu, Badań Naukowych i Energii (ITRE – Committee on Industry, Research and Energy) oraz Komisję Ochrony Środowiska Naturalnego, Zdrowia Publicznego i Bezpieczeństwa Żywności (ENVI – Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety) oraz polskie priorytety negocjacyjne. Polska stoi na stanowisku, że należy powrócić do ustaleń podjętych przez Radę Europejską 23 i 24 października 2014 r. Zapisy konkluzji dają wyraźne pole do działania państwom – beneficjentom i to bezwzględnie musi zostać zachowane. Nie można w jakikolwiek sposób podważać ich kompetencji w zakresie wyboru wykorzystywanej struktury paliwowej, stawiając niektóre technologie w gorszej pozycji poprzez manipulacje kryteriami wyboru. Poddano analizie potencjalny wpływ zmian w dyrektywie o EU ETS na sytuację gospodarczą i społeczną Polski po 2020 roku. Sytuację państwa polskiego ukazano na tle całej Wspólnoty. Podkreślono, że coraz częściej polityka klimatyczno-energetyczna Unii Europejskiej postrzegana jest w kategoriach szans, a nie zagrożeń.

The paper presents the impact of the reformed EU ETS (Emission Trading Scheme – ETS in

the European Union) on the currently operating market for trading in CO2 emission allowances.

The new Directive introduced a number of changes aimed at tightening the climate policy, which

the Polish energy sector based mainly on hard coal may mean an increase in the costs of electricity

production, and thus an increase in the cost of the entire economy.

The main goal of the changes is to achieve one of the objectives the European Union has set for itself,

i.e. the reduction of CO2 emissions by 40% until the year 2030. These assumptions are the result of

joint arrangements of the EU countries under the Paris Agreement on climate change adopted in 2015.

The Directive introduces a new market stability reserve mechanism (MSR) which, according to its

assumptions, is designed to ensure a demand and supply balance of the ETS. Bearing the balance in

mind, it means the reduction of excess allowances, which, although their number is decreasing, it is

decreasing to slowly according to EU legislators, still oscillating around 2 billion EUA.

The paper also draws attention to the rigorous assumptions adopted in the new Directive, aimed at

increasing the price of CO2, that is the costs in electricity production. Due to manually-controlled

prices, are we doomed to high CO2 prices and therefore the prices of electricity? What are its estimated

maximum levels? Will the new assumptions encourage the Member States to switch to lowcarbon

technologies? Can they weaken the economies of countries that are currently based mainly

on coal energy sources, and strengthen countries where green energy is developed?

The Polish power generation system is based mostly on coal-fired power plants. Therefore, the coal mining sector is strongly sensitive to changes in the energy sector, of which decarbonization is the crucial one. The EU Emission Trading System (EU ETS) requires power generating companies to purchase European Emission Allowances (EUAs), whose prices have recently soared. They have a direct impact on the cost efficiency of hard coal-fired power generation, hence influence the consumption of hard coal on the power sector. In this context, the objective of this paper is to estimate the hard coal consumption in various regions of Poland under selected forecasts of the EUA price. To investigate this question, two models are employed:

 - the PolPower_LR model that simulates the Polish power generation system,

 - the FSM _LR model that optimizes hard coal supplies.

Three scenarios differentiated by the EUA price are designed for this study. In the first one, the average EUA price from 2014–2017 is assumed. In the second and third, the EUA prices are assumed accordingly to the NPS and the SDS scenario of the World Energy Outlook. In this study we consider only existing, modernized, under construction and announced coal-fired power generation units. The results of the study indicate that regardless of the scenario, a drop in hard coal consumption by power generation units is observed in the entire period of analysis. However, the dynamics of these changes differ. The results of this analysis prove that the volume of hard coal consumption may differ by even 136 million Mg (in total) depending on the EUA prices development scenario. The highest cumulated volume of hard coal consumption is observed in the Opolski, Radomski and Sosnowiecki region, regardless of the considered scenario.