The article presents a methodology for determining the value of the expansion coefficient of a reconsolidated caving zone in the context of forecasting the rise in underground mine water levels and consequent surface subsidence caused by the process of flooding the closed coal mines. The paper also provides a brief characterisation of analytical predictive models regarding surface subsidence during the process of flooding coal mines. In order to describe the vertical deformation of the reconsolidated porous rock mass in the caving zone, a linear-elastic medium of Biot was utilised. The conducted theoretical calculations demonstrate a high agreement with the results obtained through the identification of the expansion coefficient parameter based on the analysis of in-situ subsidence measurements in Dutch and German mining areas. The proposed methodology was applied to a real case study involving the forecasting of the impact of the flooding process on the underground workings of the German Ibbenbüren mine. The article constitutes a significant contribution to the field of forecasting the rise in underground mine water levels and surface subsidence during the process of flooding closed coal mines. The presented methodology and obtained results can be valuable for researchers, engineers, and decision-makers involved in the planning and management of mining areas.