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Abstract

A review of the contemporary mainstream literature on exchange rate modelling clearly indicates that the rational expectations hypothesis (RE) is almost invariably taken as a point of reference in empirical investigations. This paper tests the RE hypothesis for the Polish foreign exchange market within the Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg model that builds on the hypothesis of imperfect knowledge economics (IKE). The employed modelling strategy consists in the formulation of assumptions about the persistence of nominal rate, prices and interest rates and of the verification of competing scenarios congruent with RE and IKE. As a result of the analysis, the RE hypothesis is rejected in favour of the IKE alternative.

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Authors and Affiliations

Robert Kelm
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Abstract

This article presents the results of studies assesing the significance of the most important macro- and microeconomic factors affecting investors’ propensity to invest in mining. The Polish mining industry in recent years has seen intensive restructuring processes which have considerably affected the status of fixed assets required for the exploitation of useful minerals. In order to efectively manage technological progress in mining plants, it is necessary to understand the role of individual, variable factors influencing investors’ propensity tomake specific expenditures. In the analysis, mathematical statistics and econometric modelling methods were applied to determine the nature of correlations between the values studied and their significance. This examination applied statistical data accumulated by economic entities from 2000–2010. A linear econometric model waspresented illustrating the relationship between capital expenditure in mining and such indicators as fixed assetsvalue, GDP, real interest rate, consumption levels of fixed asset components in mining, and various other factors. Structural parameters of a function specifying the level of investment expenditure can be determined based on statistical data which has been appropriately processed so that the model constructed reflects the economic process studied in relevant way.

Such a model is not free of defects typical in statistical models; however, it simultaneously enables one toobtain valuable information concerning the impact of the factors studied on the value of such expenditure, and the theoretical possibilities to exchange the specific quantity of one factor for another factor. In the final version of the model, it is often sufficient to include only these independent variables which contribute the most essential information to the independent variable. This often simplifies the final form of the model without simultaneous limiting of its importance in explaining the economic phenomenon studied and the possibilities of its practical application. In the final selection of significant variables captured in the model, the method of information capacity indicators was used.

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Authors and Affiliations

Tadeusz Franik
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Abstract

The spectacular surge of Poland's VAT revenues after 2015 prompted a discussion about the role of the tax administration in collecting tax liabilities. Unfortunately, the scarcity of the available data prevents empirical studies from reaching reliable conclusions about the determinants of VAT revenues. Given that, this article presents a wider attempt at identifying the determinants of VAT revenues in the EU Member States. Using panel cointegration methods, several working hypotheses linking VAT gap to income factors, the business cycle, tax carousels, and an effectiveness of the government are evaluated. The results of the research provide evidence that the VAT gap in the EU countries is under a strong influence from variables approximating changes in per capita incomes, the business cycle, and the openness of an economy to intra-EU trade. The latter finding is a sufficient indication that the improvements made to Poland's tax system were both legitimate and effective.
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Authors and Affiliations

Robert Kelm
1

  1. Chair of Econometric Models and Forecasts, University of Lodz, Poland
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Abstract

Management and Production Engineering Review (MPER) is a peer-refereed, international, multidisciplinary journal covering a broad spectrum of topics in production engineering and management. Production engineering is a currently developing stream of science encompassing planning, design, implementation and management of production and logistic systems. Orientation towards human resources factor differentiates production engineering from other technical disciplines. The journal aims to advance the theoretical and applied knowledge of this rapidly evolving field, with a special focus on production management, organisation of production processes, management of production knowledge, computer integrated management of production flow, enterprise effectiveness, maintainability and sustainable manufacturing, productivity and organisation, forecasting, modelling and simulation, decision making systems, project management, innovation management and technology transfer, quality engineering and safety at work, supply chain optimization and logistics. Management and Production Engineering Review is published under the auspices of the Polish Academy of Sciences Committee on Production Engineering and Polish Association for Production Management. The main purpose of Management and Production Engineering Review is to publish the results of cutting-edge research advancing the concepts, theories and implementation of novel solutions in modern manufacturing. Papers presenting original research results related to production engineering and management education are also welcomed. We welcome original papers written in English. The Journal also publishes technical briefs, discussions of previously published papers, book reviews, and editorials. Letters to the Editor-in-Chief are highly encouraged.
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Authors and Affiliations

Saltanat BEISEMBINA
Mamyrbek BEISENBI
Nurgul KISSIKOVA
Aliya Shukirova

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