A heterogeneous Bertrand duopoly game with bounded rational and adaptive players manufacturing differentiated products is subject of investigation. The main goal is to demonstrate that participation of one bounded rational player in the game suffices to destabilize the duopoly. The game is modelled with a system of two difference equations. Evolution of prices over time is obtained by iteration of a two dimensional nonlinear map. Equilibria are found and local stability properties thereof are analyzed. Complex behavior of the system is examined by means of numerical simulations. Region of stability of the Nash equilibrium is demonstrated in the plane of the speeds of adjustment. Period doubling route to chaos is presented on the bifurcation diagrams and on the largest Lyapunov characteristic exponent graph. Lyapunov time is calculated. Chaotic attractors are depicted and their fractal dimensions are computed. Sensitive dependence on initial conditions is evidenced.

The work contains discussions and simulation analyses of the expectation formation processes, taking account of the data revisions. In particular, it contains results of simulations examining statistical properties of the rationality tests and extrapolation processes, with particular focus on their behaviour in the case of short samples and data with measurement errors. The conclusions indicate that the rationality test based on the optimal regression and the proposed adaptive and accelerating tests are the most efficient and flexible. The tests showcasing best properties have been applied to a new set of macroeconomic forecasts for Poland. The results show that there are no grounds for rejecting the hypothesis on the rationality of forecasts derived from the National Bank of Poland (NBP) and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development; however, this property was rejected for the European Commission. What is more, the comparative analysis indicates that only the national institution (NBP) may potentially aim the final readings of the macroeconomic data as the forecasting target. Finally, it transpires that the extrapolative models, albeit simple and intuitively interpreted, generally fail to correctly explain the forecast formation processes regarding the Polish economy.

A review of the contemporary mainstream literature on exchange rate modelling clearly indicates that the rational expectations hypothesis (RE) is almost invariably taken as a point of reference in empirical investigations. This paper tests the RE hypothesis for the Polish foreign exchange market within the Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg model that builds on the hypothesis of imperfect knowledge economics (IKE). The employed modelling strategy consists in the formulation of assumptions about the persistence of nominal rate, prices and interest rates and of the verification of competing scenarios congruent with RE and IKE. As a result of the analysis, the RE hypothesis is rejected in favour of the IKE alternative.

In many research studies it is argued that it is possible to extract useful information about future real economic activity from the performance of financial markets. However, this study goes further and shows that it is not only possible to use expectations derived from financial markets to forecast future economic activity, but that data about the financial system can be used for this purpose as well. This paper sheds light on the ability to forecast real economic activity, based on additional and different financial variables than what have been presented so far.

The research is conducted for the Polish emerging economy on the basis of monthly data. The results suggest that, based purely on the data from the financial system, it is possible to construct reasonable measures that can, even for an emerging economy, effectively forecast future real economic activity. The outcomes are proved by two different econometric methods, namely, by a time series analysis and by a probit model. All presented models are tested in-sample and out-of-sample.

The Walters critique of EMU presumed that pro-cyclical country-specific real interest rates would incorporate significant macroeconomic instability in an environment of asymmetric shocks. The literature on optimum currency areas suggests a number of criteria to minimize this risk, such as market flexibility, high degrees of openness, financial integration or similarity in inflation rates. In this paper, we argue that an essential part of macroeconomic volatility in a monetary union’s member country also depends on the mechanism of forming expectations. This is mainly due to (i) the construction of ex ante countryspecific real interest rate, implying a strong or weak negative correlation with current inflation rate and (ii) anticipated (and hence smoothed) loss in competitiveness and boom-bust cycle. In a 2-region 2-sector New Keynesian DSGE model, we apply 5 different specifications of ex ante real interest rates, based on commonly considered types of expectations: rational, adaptive, static, extrapolative and regressive, as well as their hybrids. Our simulations show that rational expectations dominate the other specifications in terms of minimizing the volatility of the most macroeconomic variables. This conclusion is generally insensitive to which group of agents (producers or consumers) and which region (home or foreign) forms the expectations. It also turns out that for some types of expectations the Walters critique indeed applies, i.e. the system does not fulfil the Blanchard-Kahn conditions or the system’s companion matrix has explosive eigenvalues.

Expectations are understood as more or less justified beliefs about the future and relate external to us states of affairs (state expectations), ourselves (selfexpectations) or others (interpersonal expectations). in this article are presented state expectations and interpersonal expectations emerging from the process of education student with a disability. This article is based on focus research conducted among teachers and interviews with the head teachers of schools where students with disabilities are taught. The purpose of the article is to show expectations according to exchange theory and finding common and divergent benefit exchange planes between the different actors of the educational process. It turned out that very few of them are the same for all actors. Most of them are assigned to a lesser or greater degree of individual operators. The most important conclusion is the fact that the state implementing educational policy (inclusive) very often dumps the responsibility for the implementation of this policy on local governments, who saw the "economic attractiveness" of student with a disability the chance to see a budget increase and no longer necessarily increase educational opportunities for their students with disabilities.

Contemporary school is exposed to a number of tensions and conflicts arising from the difference in expectations of everyday interactions. in particular, this can manifest itself in difficult situations for which shall be the student's social maladjustment or a threat to social maladjustment, because the multiplicity of involved actors can express different beliefs about the same substance and procedure changes desired and their effectiveness. The solution thus understood the conflict of expectations may be an institutional alliance, instead too far-reaching assumptions about the collaboration.

The aim of this article is to present circumstances of South american schools functioning in disadvantaged societies on the examples of brazil and peru. Those local societies have been struggling with social and educational poverty, illiteracy, ethnic conflicts, pressures connected with gangs’ activities, etc. in many cases they try to solve their problems on the basis of school which is the center of social activity. These issues are little known in poland and only from literature and journalistic writing what has created their stereotyped image. Meanwhile, you cannot overestimate pedagogical implications of this phenomenon.

The expectations of South american local societies are in many cases not the same as the expectations of school defined by creators and administrators of the education system. Pressures and conflicts usually are caused by discrepancy between the activities of the central institutions and the needs (expectations) of different ethnic groups, clans, families and individuals. Students speaking dialects or the languages of ethnic minorities, normally experiencing domestic violence and forced to work on the border of law, are regarded by the education system as the others/aliens. in such a situation the assistance comes from volunteers and professional educators working for non-governmental organizations. Many of them refer to the ideas taken from Freire’s ‘pedagogy of the oppressed’. he was convinced that a man will never be free alone and his hope of freedom lies in education realized in cooperation with the others. The condition of liberating the oppressed individuals and groups from treating themselves as inferior, powerless, dependent on the others’ support ( which is typical for disadvantaged communities) is, according to paulo Freire, obtaining a new level of awareness through, among others, participating in educational projects based on the idea of social dialogue and creating the feeling of independence, elf-responsibility and co-responsibility for their own community.

In reflection, which is the basis of the above article, i am trying to answer the following question: in what circumstances a school can be a place of social dialogue and fulfilment of basic expectations of disadvantaged communities members? i assume that even in such exotic societies as Latin american countries you can find a lot of inspiration for solving problems similar to those encountered in poland.

One of the most important natural phenomena that causes harmful damage around the world is the occurrence of sudden and severe floods. There are various solutions to deal with floods. Among the structural measures of flood risk management, we can mention the construction of levee, detention basin, channel modification, and a combination of the mentioned measures. Manafwa is a flood-prone area in Uganda currently protected by a 6.6 m high levee. Unfortunately, the existing levee does not have ideal performance, and the probability of failure is very high. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to compare seven flood management measures in the flood-prone area of Manafwa and to select the best flood risk management proposal. These management measures are: 1) construction of a levee with a height of 6.5 m, 2) construction of a levee with a height of 7 m, 3) construction of a levee with a height of 7.5 m, 4) construction of a levee with a height of 8 m, 5) channel modification, 6) detention basin and 7) a combination of structural measures of channel modification and detention basin. The results show that although building a levee with a height of 8 m is more expensive than other options, but it reduces the expected annual flood damage to about USD30.5 thous.

Self-fulfilling prophecy is seen as an important phenomenon linking social perception with social interaction, being in line with the assumption that conviction creates reality. The adoption of such a perspective upgrades the rank of expectations, which being in control of human behaviour, permeate all areas of people’s activity. Within the area of interpersonal interaction, its participants either perceive what is expected of them or make assumptions about expectations on the basis of behaviour which is directed towards them. Following this lead, and referring to the possibility of co-operation between teachers and parents, we are confronted with a question whether within the anticipated interaction parents may cope as well, or as badly as it is expected of them by teachers. This article attempts to answer this question as well as to analyse the relationships between teachers and parents through the prism of the idea of self-fulfilling prophecy, bearing in mind that the phenomenon itself consists of extremely complex interaction of cognitive and behavioural factors.

The category of expectation constitutes an important element of reflection in many scientific disciplines focusing on man. it is treated in both the categories of expectations inscribed in large social projects (e.g. of utopian nature) and individual expectations which build human daily routine. The article is divided into two parts. in the first, the issues of interpersonal expectations, analysed in the perspective of social psychology and sociology, will be undertaken. what will be explored here are the problems of defining the notion of expectation and the problems of expectations at school, which will be exemplified by the pygmalion effect. The first part is completed with some considerations on the meaning of expectation in sociology, the role of expectations in interaction, and the relations between expecting and social order.

In the second part, the author focuses on the issues of expectations inscribed in utopian projects (“great expectations”). pedagogical utopias and relations between utopias and popularization of normative (formal) or informal pedagogies are subjected to analysis. The author makes here some references to the concept of post-materialistic society, attempting to elicit relations between this type of society and popularization of nonformal pedagogies.

This article explores the methodological and practical aspects of the history of concepts. In central focus is Reinhart Koselleck’s theory of the principal shift in the meanings of basic concepts (Sattelzeit) and its implications.

This article introduces and applies two refinements to the algorithm of solving rational expectations models of a currency union. Firstly, building upon Klein (2000), it generalizes the standard methods of solving rational expectations models to the case of time-varying nonstochastic parameters, recurring in a finite cycle. Such a specification occurs in a simple stylized New Keynesian model of the euro area after a joint introduction of (i) rotation in the ECB Governing Council (as constituted by the Treaty of Nice) and (ii) home bias in the interest rate decisions preferred by its members. Secondly, we apply the method of Christiano (2002) to solve the model with heterogenous information sets. This is justified if we argue that the information set of domestic economic agents in a currency union is home-biased (i.e. foreign shocks enter only with a lag). Both methods of solution are illustrated with simulation results.

Presented article contain the teachers opinions of the perceived social expectations in relation to their own expectations of both the institutions of school and local educational authorities. The starting point is a thesis that asymmetrical and disproportionate expectations conducive to the construction of the reduced school reality a specified group of students. as reality shows school does not always reflect the social expectations, which is closely connected with the attitudes of teachers in mainstream schools. however, their expectations of working conditions and the same students with disabilities often remain inconsistent. To identify and interpret the reality that create the appearance of the school, the topic is examined in the context of the concept of the reduced space and the theory of games.

The underground complicated testing environment and the fan operation instability cause large random errors and outliers of the wind speed signals. The outliers and large random errors result in distortion of mine wind speed monitoring, which possesses safety hazards in mine ventilation system. Application of Kalman filter in velocity monitoring can improve the accuracy of velocity measurement and eliminate the outliers. Adaptive Kalman Filter was built by automatically adjusting process noise covariance and measurement noise covariance depending on the differences between measured and expected speed signals. We analyzed the fluctuation of airflow flow using data of wind speed flow and distribution characteristics of the tunnel obtained by the Laser Doppler Velocimetry system (LDV) studies. A state-space model was built based on the tunnel airflow fluctuations and wind speed signal distribution. The adaptive Kalman Filter was calculated according to the actual measurement data and the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The adaptive Kalman filter was used to shield fluid pulsation while preserving system-induced fluctuations. Using the Kalman filter to treat offline wind speed signal acquired by LDV, the reliability of Kalman filter wind speed state model and the characteristics of adaptive Kalman Filter were investigated. Results showed that the adaptive Kalman filter effectively eliminated the outliers and reduced the root-mean-squares error (RMSE), and the adaptive Kalman filter had better performance than the traditional Kalman filter in eliminating outliers and reducing RMSE. Field experiments in online wind speed monitoring were conducted using the optimized adaptive Kalman Filter. Results showed that adaptive Kalman filter treatment could monitor the wind speed with smaller RMSE compared with LVD monitor. The study data demonstrated that the adaptive Kalman filter is reliable and suitable for online signal processing of mine wind speed monitor.

The aim of the paper is to shed light on the theoretical background of the inclusion of health in the standard of living studies, and the use of two of its specifi c measures — life expectancy at birth and body height. Hence, the article describes the idea of capabilities and functionings developed by Amartya Sen as a proposed solution to the limitations of the classic measurement of the standard of living.