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Abstract

The purpose of the article was to characterize the international steam coal market based on the latest available data. The information goes back to the first half of 2018. The article focuses on the description of the three largest exporters and importers of steam coal. Representatives in these categories were selected using the latest global statistics on 2017. In 2017, global production of steam coal amounted to 5.68 billion tons and exceeded production in 2016 by 4%. For several years, invariably the world’s leading exporters of steam coal are: Indonesia, Australia and Russia. In total, these three countries in 2017 supplied 73% of steam coal to the international market. However, for the 46% of global steam coal imports (data for 2017), three Asian countries are responsible: China, India and Japan. For each of the six listed countries (i.e. for: three major global exporters and three major global importers), the paper presents volumes related to coal production, export or import. The directions of deliveries or major coal exporters to a given country were also included. At the end of the article, the price situation was presented, as it appeared in the first half of 2018 on the European and Asian markets.

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Authors and Affiliations

Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
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Abstract

The article analyzes trends in steam coal flows (exports and imports) linked to production and consumption volumes. The analysis carried out in the article took the years from 2000 to 2019 into consideration. Coal is the second most important energy carrier. Its share in the structure of global consumption amounts to 27% and its production has an upward trend despite its decreasing share. The overall global upward trend of steam coal flows was disrupted twice over the period 2000–2019: by the effects of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis and the ongoing uncertainty of the global economy, as well as by the significant slowdown in the economic growth of developing countries (2014–2016). The European Union has seen large decreases in coal consumption over recent years, reflecting an accelerating decarbonization policy. The main area of coal trade is the Asia-Pacific basin. The Atlantic market currently accounts for about 20% of global steam coal trade, with seaborne trade covering about 95%. The volume of world trade (exports, imports) in steam coal is approximately one billion (bn) tons per year. The analysis carried out showed the following trend: decreasing coal exports to economically developed countries (mainly concentrated in Europe) and increasing exports to economies of developing countries, concentrated in the Asian part of the world. International Energy Agency (IE A) projections show that by 2040 the global coal production will fall from 5.6bn tons of coal equivalent (3.9bn tons of oil equivalent in 2019) to 5bn tce (3.5bn toe) at an average annual rate of –1.1%. Steam coal production is expected to decline by 10% to 4bn tce (2.8bn toe). Due to the fact that China is the largest producer, user and importer of steam coal in the world, all economic and political decisions taken by its government have strongly influenced international coal trade for years. For the Asia-Pacific basin alone, the IE A’s long-term forecasts predict an increase in coal-fired power generation over 2019. Forecasts regarding the coal’s share in global demand are not optimistic for many regions of the world (Europe, Africa, the Americas), predicting a significant decline in its demand. Yet, new markets for coal are emerging, especially in Asia and the Mediterranean basin, which may contribute to maintaining at least the current level of coal trade.
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Authors and Affiliations

Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
1
ORCID: ORCID
Zbigniew Grudziński
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
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Abstract

The article presents an analysis of Russia’s participation in international steam coal trade, which has been its important participant for years. The research covered the years 2014–2018. The geographical location on two continents and the availability of coal deposits, favors its presence on both the Pacific and Atlantic markets. The article also discusses the main coal producers in Russia and the prices of Russian steam coal directed to the spot market. Due to the significant share of coal exports for the Russian economy, the focus was also on analyzing Russian seaports.

In recent years, Asian exports have dominated in Russian steam coal exports. The share of export to this market in the years 2014–2018 was in the range of 49–57% (60–87 million tons). Currently, three countries play an important role among Asian countries: South Korea, China and J apan. They purchased a total of 38–52 million tons of Russian coal. Although in the years under analysis Russia exported 52–67 million tons of steam coal to the European market, the share of this market dropped from almost half to around 40%. T he slow departure from coal energy contributes to reducing the share of recipients from this direction. Among European countries, in 2014 the main direction of export was Great Britain with 19% (24 million tons) of total export share. In 2018, exports fell to 9 million tons (5%).

Among European destinations for Russian coal, Poland’s share is growing in importance. In the years 2014–2018, steam coal exports to Poland varied in the range of 5.6–16.2 million tons. In the years 2014–2018 it changed in the range of 5.6–16.2 million tons. The dynamic growth achieved in the last three years is noteworthy. In relation to 2016, imports increased by 10.0 million tons and in 2018 amounted to as much as 16.1 million tons. The article also discusses the geographical structure of coal imports to Poland by railway border crossings and seaports.

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Authors and Affiliations

Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
Zbigniew Grudziński
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Abstract

Poland’s economy is closely connected with European markets, particularly within the European Union: almost 90% of Polish commodity export goes to European countries and 80% is absorbed by other EU countries. The common European market is absorptive, safe and stabile, and goods and services sold there are duty free. But the high concentration of exports in this market implies a strong dependence on the modest growth dynamics and local fluctuations of demand, while reducing the gains that could be obtained from the presence in emerging markets which include several large and rapidly growing developing economies. The paper gives a general characteristics of those markets, including the information on their economic and population potential, and their place in the world economy – at present and in the future (according to current statistical data and long-run forecasts). The statistics of Polish foreign trade indicates a very small share of emerging countries in the geographical structure of Poland’s exports. The author describes the chances and threats combined with export expansion to these markets, emphasizing that the net balance of benefits and risks is clearly positive, which should encourage Polish enterprises to take a more active part in trade and cooperation with those countries and regions.

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Piotr Rubaj
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Abstract

Ensuring the security of power generation systems is a pillar of the proper functioning of each state. Energy security is fundamental to ensure both economic growth and social welfare. As energy storage has not developed in an efficient extent, covering the current and prospective power demand is a major challenge for transmission system operators. Moreover, the activities that are to be taken should be technically and economically justified and need to meet the requirements of environmental protection. Cooperation between neighboring countries in the field of electricity exchange is among the activities undertaken to ensure the safety of the power generation systems. The integration of electricity markets is one of the key challenges of the European Union’s energy policy. The European Commission issued a directive on interconnection, according to which the capacity of interconnections should total 10% of installed capacity until 2020 (and 15% until 2030) in each Member State. The main objective of this study is to assess the changes in electricity imports and exports in 2003–2018 and to investigate the current level of cross-border exchanges between Poland and the neighboring countries. This paper also answers the question of whether Poland will fulfil the obligations set by the European Commission. In addition, the paper presents the risks and the challenges related to fulfilling the mentioned commitments. The results of the study indicate that the development and modernization of network infrastructure in the field of cross-border exchange are necessary because, in the context of the forecasted increase in electricity demand, Polish generation units will not be able to meet the demand.

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Authors and Affiliations

Aleksandra Komorowska
ORCID: ORCID

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