The literature investigates the relation between savings and interest rate mainly for household sector, but in recent decades households ceased to be the main source of savings in the economy. We try to identify how the savings of different sectors respond to the interest rate change using the SVAR methodology. We focus on Poland and generalize the results for other European economies. We find that although the household savings rate tends to rise after an increase of interest rate, the corporate savings simultaneously fall, inducing a negative conditional correlation between them. The responses of savings rate of general government and foreign savings are diverse (although the former usually declines after an interest rate increase) and does not seem to be related to factors like the membership in the currency union or the level of public debt. We also check the existence of the ‘crowding-out’ effects and conclude it only applies in the case of government savings crowding out household savings.
This study examines whether the lowering interest-rate environment in CEE countries since the early 2000’s increased bank risk-taking behaviour. We employ 6,979 annual observations from the Bankscope database over the period 1997‒2011 and find a positive relationship between bank risk-taking, measured by risk assets, and interest rates. On the contrary, there is a negative relationsh ipbetween non-performing loans and interest rates. These results are robust across a number of different specifications that account,inter alia, for the potential endogeneity of interest rates and/or the dynamics of bank risk. Moreover, we provide evidence that these findings are mainly driven by the banking sector of the Russian Federation rather than that of the rest CEE countries.
The swap spread is defined as the difference between the fixed rate of an interest rate swap and the yield of the treasury with the same maturity. The swap spread is usually interpreted as the effective proxy of bank liquidity and the credit spread indicator. The interpretation is very similar to the LIBOR-OIS spread and in the context of Polish interbank market – WIBOR-OIS. However, WIBOR-OIS is less reliable during the crisis of confidence because of lack of interbank operation with the maturity longer than 1 month. Swap spreads base on two liquid instruments, thus they are free of this defect.
The main goal of this paper is to assess how Polish swap spreads and their conditional variance reacted to important events connected with the subprime crisis and crisis of confidence in the Polish interbank market.
Forecasting yield curves with regime switches is important in academia and financial industry. As the number of interest rate maturities increases, it poses difficulties in estimating parameters due to the curse of dimensionality. To deal with such a feature, factor models have been developed. However, the existing approaches are restrictive and largely based on the stationarity assumption of the factors. This inaccuracy creates non-ignorable financial risks, especially when the market is volatile. In this paper, a new methodology is proposed to adaptively forecast yield curves. Specifically, functional principal component analysis (FPCA) is used to extract factors capable of representing the features of yield curves. The local AR(1) model with time-dependent parameters is used to forecast each factor. Simulation and empirical studies reveal the superiority of this method over its natural competitor, the dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) model. For the yield curves of the U.S. and China, the adaptive method provides more accurate 6- and 12-month ahead forecasts.
Changes in the size and the age structure of a population have a great impact on an economy, especially on national savings and capital flows. Poland’s population, although still relatively young when compared to other developed countries, is expected to experience accelerated ageing and decline in forthcoming decades. In this paper, we assess the effects of these processes for Polish economy. Using an open-economy OLG model with demographic shocks and a variable retirement age, we simulate dynamics of real interest rates, main macro aggregates as well as net foreign assets to GDP. We show that rapid ageing will reduce the interest rate gap between Poland and the developed countries by 1.3-2 p.p. We also document a strong positive relationship between interest rates and the retirement age and find that the decline in the interest rate in Poland is primarily driven by the surviving probability shock
This study attempts to evaluate the field performance of various mining equipment used at the development galleries of coal mines. These are hand-held and jumbo rock drills, and a roadheader used in mechanical excavation. For this purpose, the penetration rates of rock drills were monitored and measured in the field. The physical, mechanical, and drillability properties were determined through the collected samples in order to understand the complex interactions between the rock and bit/pick. The abrasive mineral content was also analyzed with XRD analysis to examine the wear on the cutting/drilling tools. Besides, the specific energy of the equipment was calculated relying on the operational parameters. A comparison of the monthly advance and production rates of the drilling rigs and roadheader was made. The relations among operating power, specific energy, and design of buttons/picks were investigated. It has been found that the average advance and production rates of the mining equipment are consistent with the penetration rate. The results verified that the roadheader used in mechanical excavation and the jumbo drill used in drilling and blasting technique are the machines maximizing the advance and production rates.
Between 2014 and 2016 the number of foreigners on the Polish labour market increased by over 300 per cent. They were mainly Ukrainian citizens taking up seasonal employment on the basis of the so-called ‘sim-plified system’. According to the literature, such a large increase in labour immigration in a short period of time may be an important factor in the growth of unemployment and the reduction of the employment rate of natives. The main purpose of this text is to show the correlation between the increase in the employment of foreigners in Poland and to determine whether or not this has had an impact on the deterioration of the state of the labour market. For this purpose, data from the Central Statistical Office and the Polish Ministry of Family, Labour and Social Policy were collected. As a result of our analysis, it was found that the significant increase in the presence of foreigners on the Polish labour market, which the country has faced in recent years, was not correlated with the rise in unemployment, the increase in the rate of economic inactivity and the availability of seasonal jobs. On this basis, we can state that the increase in the supply of foreigners on the Polish labour market, compared to other factors influencing it, was weak enough for the negative effects of the increased employment of foreigners to not occur.
Luminescence dating is based mainly on the dosimetric properties of quartz and feldspar. These minerals are among the most popular found on Earth, resulting in the possibility of using luminescence methods in practically any environment. Currently, quartz remains the best recognized mineral in terms of dosimetric properties, particularly with regards to results obtained for quartz grains, which are regarded as being the most reliable in luminescence dating. Supporters of luminescence methods are constantly growing, however, these groups do not always have sufficient knowledge to avoid even the most basic of issues that may be encountered overall – from the process of sampling through to the awareness of what a single luminescence result represents. The present paper provides an overview of several practical aspects of luminescence dating such as correct sampling procedures and all necessary information regarding the calculation of the dose rate and equivalent dose with particular reference to potential problems that occur when the age of the sample is being determined. All these aspects are crucial for obtaining a reliable dating result, on the other hand, they remain a potential source of uncertainty.
Several conclusions and recommendations concerning sediment trap geometry, the technique of their deployment and interpretation of measurements results are described in this paper. Only cylindrical sediment traps are able to cope with the diverse and dynamic environment of glaciated fjords. The relation between different trap parameters shows the optimal proportion of cylinder diameter as being between 6 and 10 cm and ratio length/diameter not less than 7/1. During the peak of the melting season in Kongsfjorden (Spitsbergen) the rate of sedimentation of total matter reaches over 900 g m2 d1 and the velocity of brackish water current can reach 80 cm s1 on the surface. Owing to the high productivity of Arctic fiords and large concentration of suspended mineral matter it is possible to collect of large samples in a short time, therefore prevention of sediment traps by swimmers is not necessary.
In the summer of 1977/78, materials for determining the age and growth rate of Pseudochaenichthys georgianus Norman, 1937 were obtained in the South Georgia region. The 11—51 cm long fishes were of the age 1+ to 13+. The curvilinear relationship between the body length and the otolith radius took an S shape. In the first four years annual increments are almost identical and start to decrease in the following years. Spawning may occur in the 5th or 6th year of life, and hatching of larvae from eggs laid in autumn (IV—VI) takes place at the end of winter (IX of X). Larvae and juvenile fish lead an exclusively pelagic life, while older fish feed in near-bottom layers: when resources are scare there they seek food in the pelagial.
The article considers the issues of the value of invested capital, methods of its measurement and its growth mechanisms. The author draws attention to relationship between the value of capital and the paradigm of economics, which ultimately indicates the existence of connections between the effectiveness of investment and the philosophy of economics. The main purpose of the article is to identify abnormalities in the valuation of assets by investors due to their incorrect or incomplete understanding of the value growth mechanism, the effects of which may assume significance on a macroeconomic scale.
The paper deals with the issue of financial efficiency, measured by the arithmetic rate of return, of indirect financial investments in the area of strategic raw materials (hard coal, copper, crude oil). Two forms of indirect investments were analyzed: shares of natural resources companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange and futures contracts for strategic commodities: hard coal, copper and crude oil.
The time of the analysis is the first 6 months of 2019 and 2020. The year 2019 was regarded as an analysis of the period of economic growth, and the year 2020 was the analysis of the period of economic crisis. The comparisons were made in two dimensions. Firstly, it whether indirect commodity investments show the characteristics of efficiency resilience to the time of the economic crisis was checked (by comparing the achieved rates of return in the two analyzed periods). Secondly, which of the analyzed forms of investment (stocks, contracts) gives better investment results during economic growth and economic crisis was compared.
As it was shown in the paper, indirect commodity investments do not show an above-average rate of return neither during economic growth nor economic crisis. The achieved rates of return on shares compared to changes in the WIG20 index in the analyzed first half of 2019 were negative. Only one company showed a positive and significantly higher than the market rate of return. Very similar results were achieved by the analyzed companies in 2020.
On the other hand, the analysis of prices and rates of return on commodity futures contracts showed that in the period of economic growth it is effective to take a long position on crude oil contracts and a short position on hard coal contracts. In a period of economic crisis, the opposite position is profitable due to the observed growth in hard coal prices and a significant drop in crude oil prices.
The answers to the research questions posed in the paper do not provide indications for recommending indirect forms of investment in commodities as an alternative to analogous forms of other sectors of the economy. The analysis shows that the impact of the economic situation on the efficiency of commodity investment is most noticeable for crude oil, and the least (among the analyzed commodities) for indirect copper-based investments.
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