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Abstract

The observation of trends in the demand for minerals is of fundamental importance in the long- -term assessment of prospects for economic development in Poland.
From among 148 minerals analyzed, 42 minerals are indicated as key minerals for the country’s economy, of which 22 were recognized as deficit minerals. These minerals have been the subject of this paper.
For each of these minerals the forecasts of demand by the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 have been made taking the current trends in domestic economy and premises for the development of industries that are main users of these minerals into account. The most promising prospects for growth of domestic demand – with at least a two-fold increase by 2050 – have been determined for manganese dioxide, metallic: magnesium, nickel, silicon, as well as talc and steatite, while an increase by at least 50% have been anticipated for metallic aluminum, tin, metallic manganese, and elemental phosphorus. For natural gas and crude oil growing tendencies have also been predicted, but only by 2030. On the other hand, the most probable decline in domestic demand by 2050 may be foreseen for iron ores and concentrates, bauxite, metallic tungsten, magnesite and magnesia, as well as for crude oil and natural gas, especially after 2040.
It seems inevitable that the deficit in the foreign trade of minerals will continue to deepen in the coming years. By 2030 this will mainly result from the growing importation of crude oil and natural gas, but beyond – by 2050 – further deepening in the trade deficit will be related to the growing importation of many metals as well as of some industrial minerals. After 2040, the negative trade balance can be mitigated by a possible decrease in foreign deliveries of hydrocarbons and iron ores and concentrates.
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Bibliography


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Authors and Affiliations

Krzysztof Galos
1
ORCID: ORCID
Ewa Danuta Lewicka
1
ORCID: ORCID
Jarosław Kamyk
1
ORCID: ORCID
Jarosław Szlugaj
1
ORCID: ORCID
Hubert Czerw
1
ORCID: ORCID
Anna Burkowicz
1
ORCID: ORCID
Alicja Kot-Niewiadomska
1
ORCID: ORCID
Katarzyna Guzik
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
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Abstract

The article provides the external indications (both international and domestic) showing how important creating an appropriate mineral policy of the country is, especially in the context of mineral security. The current mandatory legal regulations referring to mineral policy and mineral security of the country were presented and discussed against this background, starting with provisions of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland, through the Strategy for Sustainable Development, Spatial Management Concept of the Country 2030 together with Action Plan, Strategy for Energy Security and Environment – 2020 perspective, Geological and Mining Law and other legal acts and implementing provisions, Action Plan “Raw Materials for the Industry” announced by the Minister of Development, the Concept for Mineral Policy presented by the Government Plenipotentiary for the Mineral Policy, and finally – project of the Urban and Building Code in the area of spatial development. In the case of documents being in the course of the proceedings, the current state of working on them is presented, also in the context of particular projected legal solutions for future regulations. The author indicates and justifies the need of accelerating the work and taking actions to prevent the currently appearing phenomena that may impede the execution of the raw materials policy and the protection of key raw materials in the future.

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Authors and Affiliations

Jan A. Stefanowicz

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