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Abstract

Article investigates the issue of terms of trade in energy products. The goal of this paper is to check how the terms of trade in energy fluctuate. The analysis is carried out on the example of Poland as a country which offers an interesting energy imports and exports structure. The time horizon covers the period from 2005–2015 and is extended to give the broader picture of the phenomenon wherever possible. In the research, the author uses the barter terms of trade concept. The paper has been organized in four sections. The study opens with introductory remarks presenting Polish energy situation, which is followed by a description of the terms of trade concept on the grounds of international economics. The results of the research are discussed in section three which ends with a summary and conclusions. The last part includes an additional description of study constraints and suggestions the next research steps. The statistical data used in the paper comes from national databases of the Polish Central Statistical Office and international sources such as the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Additional information on energy prices was derived from recognized branch sources such as BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
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Authors and Affiliations

Honorata Nyga-Łukaszewska
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Abstract

This article analyses fuel pricing in Poland in the period January 2000 – March 2011. Two levels of prices are considered: wholesale prices set by Polish refineries and retail prices paid at petrol stations. Because refinery product prices are strongly dependent on the zloty exchange rate, a large part of the article deals with the modelling of the PLN/EUR exchange rate, in which process a CHEER model is used.

The multivariate cointegration analysis showed that the wholesale and retail prices of fuels and the exchange rate are linked through long-run relationships. As demonstrated, the wholesale price of fuel depends on the crude-oil price and the PLN/EUR exchange rate. Another finding is that changes in the wholesale price are fully transmitted to retail prices. As far as the exchange rate is concerned, the real interest rate parity hypothesis has been confirmed, as well as the significance of the risk as perceived by financial investors.

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Authors and Affiliations

Katarzyna Leszkiewicz-Kędzior
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Abstract

Coal production in 2018 increased by 3.3% and amounted to 7.81 million tons. Compared to 2010, it increased by 620 million tons. The structure of coal production in the world is very stable in the analyzed period of 2010–2018. Steam coal dominates in production with a share of 77%. Since 1990, the share of coal in the consumption of primary energy carriers has fallen by 3% in the global economy. In the EU, the share of coal in the consumption of primary energy carriers is more than twice lower than in the world, and in 2018 amounted to 13%. BP estimates the sufficiency of coal proven reserves based on 2018 data for the next 132 years. For oil and gas, they are estimated at 51 years. The decline in hard coal production in the European U nion can be dated almost continuously since 1990, which has decreased by 74%. In 2018, 74 million tons of coal were produced in the EU. In 2018, hard coal consumption in EU countries dropped to 226 million tons, i.e. by 20.6%.

In 2018, global trade in steam coal amounted to 1.14 billion tons. The situation in China is crucial for the international coal market. The slight change in the import policy of this country significantly affects the situation in international trade in steam coal. In 2019, coal prices (at Newcastle, Richards Bay, ARA ports) dropped by an average of 23 U SD/ton. The average decreases for these three indices were 33%. The prices of steam coal in the forecasts presented in the paper are under pressure of the falling demand.

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Authors and Affiliations

Zbigniew Grudziński
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Abstract

Biomass is one of the most frequently used sources of renewable energy. For centuries, wood has been used by people to heat their homes, and nowadays it is also used to generate electricity. The article discusses legal issues related to biomass, classification of biomass for energy purposes, quality parameters of selected ecological fuels, quality requirements for biomass, as well as biomass trade in the world. The article compares the quality requirements for biomass purchased by individual companies from the power sector (mainly dimensions, calorific value, moisture content, ash content, sulfur and chlorine). An analysis of the price of wood pellets on international markets, represented by the biomass stock exchanges: RBCN, EEX and BALTPOOL was also performed. The market analysis clearly shows that the international market for industrial pellets is dominated by intercontinental trade, which mainly concerns exchanges between the United States of America as a producer and Europe as a consumer. The largest amount of biomass is imported by the United Kingdom, mainly for its Drax biomass power plant, and this biomass comes from the USA and Canada. In addition to Great Britain, significant importers of wood pellets are the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark. Judging by the interest of Polish energy companies in the purchase of biomass, also in Poland, the development of the biomass market should be expected.

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Authors and Affiliations

Tadeusz Olkuski
Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
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Abstract

The purpose of the article was to characterize the international steam coal market based on the latest available data. The information goes back to the first half of 2018. The article focuses on the description of the three largest exporters and importers of steam coal. Representatives in these categories were selected using the latest global statistics on 2017. In 2017, global production of steam coal amounted to 5.68 billion tons and exceeded production in 2016 by 4%. For several years, invariably the world’s leading exporters of steam coal are: Indonesia, Australia and Russia. In total, these three countries in 2017 supplied 73% of steam coal to the international market. However, for the 46% of global steam coal imports (data for 2017), three Asian countries are responsible: China, India and Japan. For each of the six listed countries (i.e. for: three major global exporters and three major global importers), the paper presents volumes related to coal production, export or import. The directions of deliveries or major coal exporters to a given country were also included. At the end of the article, the price situation was presented, as it appeared in the first half of 2018 on the European and Asian markets.

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Authors and Affiliations

Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
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Abstract

The development of electromobility is a challenge for the power system in both technical and economic-market terms. As of today, there are no analyses to determine the power necessary to supply the planned infrastructure and to estimate the incentives and economic benefits resulting from the modification of the settlement method. The document determining the legal regulations and the obligation to build vehicle charging stations for specific municipalities is the Act on Electromobility and Alternative Fuels. This act estimates that the development of electromobility, due to the specifics including not only individual vehicles, will take place in certain areas. The places which in the first stage will be dedicated to the potential implementation of the concept of electromobility will be municipalities covering large agglomerations. In addition, due to the local aspect, the development of electromobility may take place in the areas of energy clusters’ initiatives, which, using the policy of increasing energy awareness, are aimed at energy production from local renewable energy resources. The planned development of electromobility assumes a systematic increase in the number of electric cars caused by the introduction of support systems. The dynamization of this sector will cause an increase in the demand for electricity. Due to power system reasons, an important factor determining the level of energy consumption depending on the time of day may be an appropriate shape of the pricing for the charging service. Appropriate price list stimulation can affect the behavior of recipients, causing the charging of cars in the off-peak of electricity demand. The aim of the article is to characterize the scale of the phenomenon of electromobility in the context of the emergence of a charging points infrastructure along with the possibility of price-setting stimulation affecting the profile of energy demand. It is also important to consider the challenges and responsibilities of municipalities and energy clusters from the perspective of introducing electromobility.

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Authors and Affiliations

Kinga Bojda
Maciej Sołtysik
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Abstract

The article presents an analysis of Russia’s participation in international steam coal trade, which has been its important participant for years. The research covered the years 2014–2018. The geographical location on two continents and the availability of coal deposits, favors its presence on both the Pacific and Atlantic markets. The article also discusses the main coal producers in Russia and the prices of Russian steam coal directed to the spot market. Due to the significant share of coal exports for the Russian economy, the focus was also on analyzing Russian seaports.

In recent years, Asian exports have dominated in Russian steam coal exports. The share of export to this market in the years 2014–2018 was in the range of 49–57% (60–87 million tons). Currently, three countries play an important role among Asian countries: South Korea, China and J apan. They purchased a total of 38–52 million tons of Russian coal. Although in the years under analysis Russia exported 52–67 million tons of steam coal to the European market, the share of this market dropped from almost half to around 40%. T he slow departure from coal energy contributes to reducing the share of recipients from this direction. Among European countries, in 2014 the main direction of export was Great Britain with 19% (24 million tons) of total export share. In 2018, exports fell to 9 million tons (5%).

Among European destinations for Russian coal, Poland’s share is growing in importance. In the years 2014–2018, steam coal exports to Poland varied in the range of 5.6–16.2 million tons. In the years 2014–2018 it changed in the range of 5.6–16.2 million tons. The dynamic growth achieved in the last three years is noteworthy. In relation to 2016, imports increased by 10.0 million tons and in 2018 amounted to as much as 16.1 million tons. The article also discusses the geographical structure of coal imports to Poland by railway border crossings and seaports.

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Authors and Affiliations

Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
Zbigniew Grudziński
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Abstract

The aim of the paper was to estimate how the value of 1 GJ of energy in coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal/kg varies on the international coal market compared to 1 GJ of energy in coal with a calorific value of 6000 kcal/kg. The analysis of data from different ports was intended to answer the question of whether the pricing of coals of different producers according to their calorific value is convergent. The best-known price standard for thermal coal is 25.1 MJ/kg coal (6000 kcal/kg) and, until recently, coals with such quality parameters dominated international trade. Currently, coals with parameters other than considered to be standard parameters are traded on the coal market, hence it is necessary to price a unit of energy (e.g. 1 GJ) contained in these coals. The indices have been selected of the largest exporters of thermal coal for which data was available and referred to the same coal types (grades) determined on the same basis (FOB). Theoretically, the price differential between 6000 kcal/kg and 5000 kcal/kg coal (in USD/ton) should be (at least) as much as the difference in calorific value, i.e. about 9% per USD/ton. In reality, the price differential between these types of coal is greater, though. The overall conclusion of the analysis is that the price calculated per 1 GJ of energy fluctuated on average by 5.9% over the entire period considered. The analytical results obtained for coal from four countries are quite convergent, so it can be assumed that the calculated relationship between the prices of coal with different calorific values (6000 and 5000 kcal/kg) is a good approximation of the observed relationships in the international trade. The calculation results provide a simple formula allowing to estimate the price of coal with a calorific value other than the standard 25.1 MJ/kg (6000 kcal/kg) using the relationships from the international market.

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Authors and Affiliations

Zbigniew Grudziński
ORCID: ORCID
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Abstract

House prices are of special importance for monetary policy since their sudden falls are usually associated with credit crunch followed by long-lasting and painful recessions. Despite several spectacular episodes of such events, each time house prices exhibit long-lasting growth trend with little volatility around it, it is argued that this pattern is a “new normal”. This paper shows that a central bank following this view would increase the volatility of inflation and output as compared to a policy that assumes high volatility of house prices. In the former case the monetary authority would conduct too accommodative monetary policy during abrupt house price expansions significantly increasing output and inflation fluctuations. In the latter situation, in turn, the policy would work well irrespective of the realized house price volatility.
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Authors and Affiliations

Grzegorz Wesołowski
1

  1. Narodowy Bank Polski
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Abstract


The demand for coking coal in international trade is determined mainly by demand from the steel industry, which, in turn, is dependent on the global economic situation and the condition of the steel market.
Business cycles in commodity markets are normal, but in the 21st century the good and bad times in the global coal market have shortened, and the amplitudes of price fluctuations have been much greater than they used to be.
China, as the world’s biggest producer and consumer of coking coals, and at the same time the largest importer and major participant in the Asian spot market, played a leading role in these events.
On the supply side, the main factor for these events is the concentration of production of premium hard coals on the east coast of Australia (in Queensland), in an area exposed to strong weather conditions (floods, hurricanes). Australia’s share of coal supply to the international metallurgical coal market (seaborne) is about 60%.
Coal prices on the international market are mainly shaped by the relationships between Australian suppliers and Asian customers. The increased share of China and India in global coking coal trade has weakened the bargaining power of Japanese giant companies in benchmark price negotiations.
Using the example of FOB prices of the Australian Premium HCC, the article shows how prices in metallurgical coal trade have evolved (in a long time horizon) against the background of market conditions. It also describes how the ongoing changes have affected the way benchmark prices are set in international coking coal trade.
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Bibliography


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China’s economy 2005 – China’s economy and its impact on the global economic situation. Government Center for Strategic Studies (Gospodarka Chin i jej wpływ na koniunkturę światową. Rządowe Centrum Studiów Strategicznych). Warsaw, November 2005 (in Polish).
Coal Information 2020 – with 2019 data. Paryż: IEA.
CTI Platts 2021 – CTI – Coal Trader International. S&P Global Platts (Editions from the years 2003–2021).
Energy Publishing 2010. Methodology and Specifications for Coking Coal Queensland Index (CCQ) and Coking Coal Hampton Roads Index (CCH). September 9, 2010 – Version 15, 20. [Online] www.energypublishing.com [Accessed: 2021-07-05].
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ICR Platts – ICR – International Coal Report. Wyd. Platts – The McGraw Hill Companies, England (Editions from the years 2003–2013).
IHS Markit 2021 – Coking coal marker price. Methodology and specifications. Effective February 2021. [Online] https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com [Accessed: 2021-07-05].
Metallurgical Coal 2018 – Metallurgical Coal 2018 Spot Trade Review. Metals special report. March 2019. S&PGlobal Platts. [Online] www.platts.com/metals [Accessed: 2021-07-05].
Ozga-Blaschke, U. 2004. Prices of metallurgical coke and of coking coal on foreign markets (Ceny koksu metalurgicznego i węgla koksowego na rynkach międzynarodowych). Przegląd Górniczy 60(7–8), pp. 21–24 (in Polish).
Ozga-Blaschke, U. 2006. State of the art and forecast of international coking coal market development (Stan aktualny i prognozy rozwoju międzynarodowego rynku węgla koksowego). Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal 9(is. special), pp. 633–643 (in Polish).
Ozga-Blaschke, U. 2009. The impact of the economic crisis on the steel, coking coal and coke markets (Wpływ kryzysu gospodarczego na rynki stali, węgla koksowego i koksu). Przegląd Górniczy 65(3–4), pp. 8–13 (in Polish).
Ozga-Blaschke, U. 2010. Coking coal management (Gospodarka węglem koksowym). Kraków: MEERI PAS (in Polish).
Ozga-Blaschke, U. 2012. Coking coal market development within the context of the global economic situation (Rozwój rynku węgli koksowych na tle sytuacji gospodarczej na świecie). Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal 15(4), pp. 255–267 (in Polish).
Ozga-Blaschke, U. 2016. Metallurgical Raw Materials Markets (Rynki surowców metalurgicznych). Zeszyty Naukowe IGSMiE PAN 95, pp. 7–22 (in Polish).
Ozga-Blaschke, U. 2017. Evolution of price mechanism on the international market of metallurgical coal (Ewolucja mechanizmu cenowego na międzynarodowym rynku węgli metalurgicznych). Zeszyty Naukowe IGSMiE PAN 98, pp. 65–76 (in Polish).
Ozga-Blaschke U. 2018. Coking coal prices on the international market – the current situation and forecasts (Ceny węgla koksowego na rynku międzynarodowym – sytuacja bieżąca i prognozy). Zeszyty Naukowe IGSMiE PAN 105, pp. 53–62 (in Polish).
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Authors and Affiliations

Urszula Ozga-Blaschke
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
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Abstract

Approximately 95% of international trade in steam coal is concentrated in two areas: Asia-Pacific and Atlantic. Prices on the international market depend on the largest exporters and users of coal. The aim of the article is to characterize the price trends that took place in the international trade of energy coal in the years 2000–2020 and to distinguish price indices which, in the opinion of the authors, currently play an important role in this trade. The analysis of steam coal prices in international markets in 2000–2020 made it possible to highlight five periods of rising prices, four periods of falling prices, and one period of the stabilisation of prices. A detailed analysis of the highlighted periods of steam coal price fluctuations in 2000–2020 made it possible to identify groups of factors that significantly affect the level of prices of the analyzed coal in the long term. International steam coal markets are interlinked despite periodic volatility. A very important factor influencing world steam coal prices is the situation in China as it is the largest producer, user and importer of steam coal. A small change in coal production in China significantly affects the volume of trade on the international market. Therefore, the level of freight prices is an important factor influencing the price level for the customer. FOB Australia prices are also correlated with coal suppliers to the European market and Asia-Pacific market in this paper. The very high correlation coefficients obtained confirm the close relationship between the prices of these coals. For many years, the European market has no longer been a trendsetter in international coal markets but has instead been affected by general trends.
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Authors and Affiliations

Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
1
ORCID: ORCID
Zbigniew Grudziński
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland
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Abstract

The paper presents an analysis of hard coal prices offered at the coal depots in Poland. Coal depots are one of the most popular forms of purchasing coal by Polish households. Prices refer to price offers for cobble coal (grain size: 60–120 mm) and their analysis is performed based on the regions rather than on all Polish provinces. From January 2010 to May 2019, there were two regions that were distinguished in terms of price spread: the S-W region and the N-E region. In the case of the S-W region, the difference between the province with the minimum price (Śląskie Province) and with the maximum price (Dolnośląskie Province since September 2017) ranged from PLN 53–83/ton, and in the N-E region the difference ranged PLN 64–130/ton. In the case of the remaining two regions, prices varied from a few to approximately PLN 80/ton for the N-W region, and from a few to about PLN 40 /ton for the S-E region. In order to determine how the origin of the coal affects its prices (domestic coal, imported coal), the analysis also included cobble coal price offers that are part of the Author’s own database created for several years. In the case of cobble coal from domestic producers, price offers varied betwwen PLN 14–33/GJ, and price offers for imported cobble coal stood varied between PLN 12–32/GJ. The N-E region attracted particular attention as the price offers for imported cobble coal reached a level similar to the offers from the S-W region, i.e. the region closest to Silesian coal mines. Price differentials within provinces belonging to a given region were influenced by the geographical rent. The paper also analyses average selling prices offered by domestic producers for various size grades of steam coal as well as selling prices for imported coal (free-at-frontier price).

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Authors and Affiliations

Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj
ORCID: ORCID
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Abstract

Metallurgy is one of the key industries both in Russia and in the world. It has a significant influence on the situation in related industries. Therefore, the current state analysis of ferrous metallurgy production and its formation based on the short-term technological forecast is essential. Based on the foregoing, the research was aimed at analyzing the current state of ferrous metallurgy production in Russia and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prospects for industry development in the short term. The research studies the state of the ferrous metallurgy production in Russia and abroad before the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the volume of industrial production in ferrous metallurgy and the industry structure. The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a serious global recession, necessitating an analysis of the forecast for the development of the ferrous metallurgy industry. The research concludes that the Russian ferrous metals market is so far affected to a lesser extent compared to the European one.
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Bibliography

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[11] Dudin, M.N., Bezbakh, V.V., Galkina, M.V., Rusakova, E.P., Zinkovsky, S.B. (2019). Stimulating Innovation Activity in Enterprises within the Metallurgical Sector: the Russian and International Experience. TEM Journal. 8(4), 1366-1370.
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Authors and Affiliations

S.S. Golubev
1
V.D. Sekerin
1
A.E. Gorokhova
1
D.A. Shevchenko
1
A.Z. Gusov
2

  1. Moscow Polytechnic University, Bolshaya Semenovskaya Street, 38, Moscow, 107023, Russian Federation
  2. Peoples Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), Miklukho-Maklaya Street, 6, Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation
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Abstract

The article presents the challenges faced by the hard coal mining sector in Poland. The biggest

challenge results from a decrease in the demand for coal, which was triggered mainly by the climate

policy, including the tightening of environmental standards and an increase in the efficiency of generating

units. The fundamental model of the MRÓWKA domestic coal market has been described.

The model allows for determining the marginal price of a given fuel for a given generating unit in

the system and the optimal mix of fuels to meet the energy demand. The results of the model calculations

for the baseline and alternative scenarios were presented. It has been shown that the optimal

distribution of coal mining capacities promotes the import of the discussed fuel in the north-eastern

part of the country and that the individual customer valuation leads to a decrease in the competitiveness

of the units located in the central-western part of the country. The paper also discusses the

potential impact of the domestic oversupply on the balance sheet and the price of coal. According

to the obtained results and the basic laws of economics, an oversupply of coal leads to a decrease

in prices. For the analyzed variants, the dependence of prices was estimated at PLN 0.0308 / GJ for

every million tons of the oversupply. The fall in prices is largely due to the fuel supply to units located

close to ports or railway border crossings. Based on the presented arguments it can be concluded

that the maximization of financial result from the extraction of coal should be based on an analysis

taking incremental changes in fuel prices into account.

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Authors and Affiliations

Marek Fałtyn
Daniel Naczyński
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Abstract

A Bayesian stochastic volatility model with a leverage effect, normal errors and jump component with the double exponential distribution of a jump value is proposed. The ready to use Gibbs sampler is presented, which enables one to conduct statistical inference. In the empirical study, the SVLEDEJ model is applied to model logarithmic growth rates of one month forward gas prices. The results reveal an important role of both jump and stochastic volatility components.

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Authors and Affiliations

Maciej Kostrzewski
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Abstract

In this paper, the stock price-inflation nexus is investigated using the tools of wavelet power spectrum, cross-wavelet power spectrum and cross-wavelet coherency to unravel time and frequency dependent relationships between stock prices and inflation. Our results suggest that for a frequency band between sixteen and thirty two months, there is some evidence of the fisher effect. For rest of the frequencies and time periods however there is no evidence of the fisher effect and it seems stock prices have not played any role as an inflation hedge.

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Authors and Affiliations

Niyati Bhanja
Arif Billah Dar
Aviral Kumar Tiwari
Olaolu Richard Olayeni
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Abstract

The paper presents selected issues related to the development of international coal markets. World consumption of coal dropped for the second year in a row in 2016, primarily due to the lower demand from China and the US. The share of coal in global primary energy consumption decreased to 28%. World coal production accounted to 3.66 billion toe and it was lower by 6.2% when compared to the previous year. More than 60% of this decline took place in China. The decline in global production was more than four times higher than the decrease in consumption. The sufficiency of the world resources of coal are estimated at 153 years – that is three times more than the sufficiency of oil and gas resources. After several years of decline, coal prices increased by 77% in 2016. The current spot prices are at the level of $80/ton and are close to the 2014 prices. In the European market, after the first half of the year, coal prices reached the level of around 66% higher than in the same period of the last year. The average price in the first half amounted to PLN 12.6/GJ, which is close to the 2012 prices. The share of spot trade in the total purchase amount accounted to approx. 20%. Prices in futures contracts can be estimated on the basis of the Japan-Australia contracts prices and prices in supplies to power plants located in Germany. On average, the prices in supplies to these power plants were higher by approximately 9% in the years 2010 – 2016 and prices in Australia – Japan contracts were 12% higher than CIF ARA prices in 2017. Global energy coal trade reached about 1.012 billion tons in 2016. A decline by 4.8% is expected in 2019 primarily due to the expected reduction in demand in major importing countries in Asia.

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Authors and Affiliations

Zbigniew Grudziński
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Abstract

We consider a monetary DSGE model featuring a borrowing constraint such that the amount of debt cannot be larger than a fraction - the debt-to-income (DTI) limit - of borrowers' labor income and the DTI limit is endogenous. The coexistence of financial amplification mechanisms warranted by this model provides a role for a specific macroprudential tool: a countercyclical DTI limit. Conditional on the pre-crisis sample and in a more recent out-of-sample period, our ex-post normative analysis shows that when this policy is implemented the cooperation between central bank and macroprudential authority in pursuing the “two instruments for two goals” strategy delivers an efficient performance in terms of macroeconomic stabilization, significantly outperforming the central bank's policy of “leaning against the wind”. This implies that a central bank should only be focused on its standard objectives (inflation and output stabilization) while financial stability be monitored by a macroprudential authority.
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Authors and Affiliations

Pasquale Filiani
1

  1. Banque Internationale à Luxembourg
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Abstract

The electric power sector is analyzed from the standpoint of well-being and a number of political priorities are considered that go beyond the traditional tasks of the so-called “energy trilemma”, namely reliable, affordable and carbon-free energy. This shows the importance of solving the problem at different levels as it can help the Government of Kazakhstan more reliably achieve synergy between actions to combat climate change and other priorities and, consequently, achieve double harmonization. The purpose of the study is to consider the cost and pricing surveys in the conditions of the functioning of the electricity market of Kazakhstan. Electricity is of key importance for human well-being. Electricity is highly necessary for many basic services, infrastructure and economic activities. Despite the increase in energy efficiency, the global electricity demand increased by 115% between 1990 and 2020, which is significantly higher than the population growth rate over the same period. This trend will undoubtedly continue conditioned upon economic growth, increased access and the electrification of end users. The assessment of electricity generation technologies from the point of view of well-being requires the use of the full cost method, which includes all applicable external costs, risks and benefits to determine the low-carbon energy balance, which in the Republic of Kazakhstan, is compatible with sustainable development. This assessment clearly needs to go beyond the plant level to consider the network infrastructure and demand to get a holistic view of the social costs of electricity. The practical significance lies in the analysis of cost and pricing in the conditions of the functioning of the electricity market of Kazakhstan.
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Authors and Affiliations

Kuralay Sadykova
1
ORCID: ORCID
Almas Zhakupov
2
ORCID: ORCID
Timur Baymukhanov
1
ORCID: ORCID
Railash Turchekenova
1
ORCID: ORCID
Aliya Medebaeva
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Institute of Management, Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Republic of Kazakhstan
  2. Institute of Heat Power Engineering and Heat Engineering, Almaty University of Power Engineering and Telecommunications named after Gumarbek Daukeev, Republic of Kazakhstan
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Abstract

As is well known, gas consumption and its prices depends on many factors including local factors, geopolitics, the development of the gas transport infrastructure (including liquefied natural gas), distribution and extraction costs – for example unconventional deposits (e.g. shale gas). The global gas market depends primarily on the economic relations between large gas producers and importers e.g. US-China, Middle East/US – Russia etc. (Olayele 2015). In individual countries, the price is also dependent on concluded contracts and delivery directions. Also it should be mentioned that the gas consumption depends on weather conditions, type of day of the year (holiday, business day, month) and economic situation (Kosowski et. al 2010). What impact has the appearance of the COVID-19 epidemic had on the European natural gas market?

The analyzed research problem concerned, in particular, two areas: gas consumption and its prices, in selected European countries in the aspect of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic with reference to historical data from 2016–2019. Seven European countries belonging to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) were selected, for which the highest inland consumption of natural gas by country was observed in the last year. The countries are presented in order or consumption: Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Poland. The data has been downloaded from transmission system operators (TSOs) for each of these countries.

Furthermore the article showed information about the dates of governments restrictions (lockdown), LNG contract volumes, injection/withdrawal volumes (storage).

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Authors and Affiliations

Tomasz Chrulski
ORCID: ORCID
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Abstract

The development of air transport affects elements of the aviation fuel market. In recent years an increase in both the number of passengers and the number of passenger operations has been observed. This phenomenon also concerns passengers and the number of operations served by Polish airports which translates into more and more fuel consumption in Poland. The authors of the study tried to approximate the characteristics of aviation fuels used in various types of aircrafts. The most important of them, from the perspective of the Polish aviation sector, include Jet. This type of fuel plays a key role in civil aviation. In the article, the enterprises operating in the analyzed sector were also reviewed. The empirical part of the article is devoted, in turn, to the analysis of changes in air passenger transport in Poland and changes in Jet fuel prices on the Polish fuel markets. The conducted research shows that the dynamics of changes in the number of passengers, as well as the number of passenger operations at Polish airports were characterized by an upward trend, and the increase in the number of passengers was driven not only by a larger number of available flights, but also by such factors as: increasing the capacity of aircraft and increasing the fill rate for seats. The authors have also attempted to examine the strength of dependence between the number of passengers deciding to use Polish airports and Jet fuel prices, which in recent years have undergone significant fluctuations. For this purpose, the value of Pearson’s linear correlation coefficient was used and the analyzed period covered the years 2011–2017. The data on passenger traffic used in the study came mainly from periodic reports prepared by the Civil Aviation Office (ULC).

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Authors and Affiliations

Justyna Muweis
Bartosz Łamasz
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Abstract

Over the past two years, coking coal prices have been the most volatile among major bulk commodities. On the supply side, the most important factor determining the movement of coal prices were weather problems affecting the exports of coal from Australia (Queensland), where the production of the best quality coking coals is concentrated. On the demand side, an important factor is the growing role of China on the market, which, being the world’s largest producer and consumer of metallurgical coal, has also become its largest importer. The dominant, about 75% share of China in the global spot market has resulted in their level of activity influencing the periodic price decreases or increases in international trade and prices based on CFR China (along with Australian FOB prices) have become important indicators to monitor market trends and determine levels of negotiated benchmarks. The exceptional volatility on the market led to a change in the quarterly price fixing mechanism for hard-load hard coal contractors in mid–2017 to apply a formula that assumes the valuation of their quarterly volumes based on the average of the basket of spot price indices. This reflects the broader trend of the evolving market, with growing spot market activity. The article describes the current situation on the international coking coal market and presents short-term forecasts for hard coking hard coal prices (PHCC LV), which are a reference point for fixing prices of other types of metallurgical coal (hard standard, semi-soft, PCI).

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Authors and Affiliations

Urszula Ozga-Blaschke
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Abstract

With the upcoming implementation of the centralized capacity market in Poland, capacity auctions will be organized where domestic power companies will offer their available capacities. It is assumed that bidding will be auctioned according to the so called descending clock auction system with uniform-price (Pay-as-Clear), which will lead to the market equilibrium price. Some analysts, however, are of the view that it is more appropriate to organize capacity auctions in the Pay-as-Bid formula, as this system should lead to lower prices that those of Pay-as-Clear, hence lower costs of capacity purchase. However, this opinion does not confirm the practice – theoretical considerations do not take into account such important factors as the behavior of market players and the tendency of bidders to accept a higher risk or the lack of access to advanced analyses, and thus better information for all market participants. This paper presents a hypothetical calculation of the prices in the centralized capacity market using Monte Carlo simulations. The results of the study confirm that the price level for the Pay-as-Bid system, due to the asymmetry of information and the level of concentration of the power generation sector in Poland would lead to higher prices than for the Pay-as-Clear system on average by approximately 2.5%. The implementation of the PAB system would, therefore, be less efficient to electricity consumers.

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Authors and Affiliations

Piotr W. Saługa
Jacek Kamiński
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Abstract

Over the past decade, the growing demand for imported coal from consumers (mainly Asian) coincided with supply constraints on the part of major suppliers. The sequence of events is referred to as force majeure. There were many events in the exporting countries, mainly including the cyclone and floods in Australia (Queensland, the world’s largest hard coking coal mining region). Imbalance between supply and demand causes commodity prices to be subject to cyclical changes, but in recent years the frequency and dynamics of these changes in the international metallurgical market (hard coking coal, semi-soft coking coal, PCI coal) has been extremely high. China, the world’s largest producer and consumer of coking coal, played a leading role in these events. Political action by the Chinese authorities regarding their domestic mining and metallurgical industries and the coke-chemical industry has made the country dethrone Japan since 2013 and has become a global leader in metallurgical coal imports. The rise of China’s importance in coal trading has become an important benchmark for monitoring market trends and benchmarking benchmarks. The market has become more bipolar and CFR China’s prices (in addition to Australia’s FOB prices). The paper describes the path of pricing mechanism changes in international trade contracts for metallurgical coal, against the background of market conditions that generate these changes.

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Authors and Affiliations

Urszula Ozga-Blaschke

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