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Abstract

In the last decades Real Options Valuation (ROV) has been gaining a leading role among methods of economic evaluation and risk analysis of projects. This method enables valuation of managerial flexibility which includes postponing investments and reformulating of operating strategies of companies. By doing this, the method delivers higher project values than derived from the classical discount approaches, such as NPV. The value of flexibility may be of lower or greater importance - depending on types, configuration and sequence of occurring real options. Common methods of real options valuation are built on lattice models which approximate continuous stochastic process. One of the most popular techniques used for real options valuation - a marketed asset disclaimer approach (MAD) - is based on the binomial tree. The paper presents valuation of the mineral project with three simultaneous options: option-to-expand, option-to-contract and option-to-abandon.

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Authors and Affiliations

Piotr Saługa
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Abstract

An article presented hereby relates to valuation of undeveloped deposits of minerals which are not sold on markets in unprocessed form and their processing into a marketable commodity calls for construction of an additional plant which usually is not operated by a mining company. In practices lignite and limestone deposits fall into the above defined category. Difficulties in their valuation are caused by their two major properties: any economically justifiable development of such deposits can be carried out only in close co-operation with a neighboring power plant or cement factory and development of such fields is usually lengthy. Therefore, out of four methods recommended by the POLVAL Code to be used for valuation of undeveloped mineral deposits only the options based approach seems to offer, however with some important limitations, useful tools for appraisal of lignite and limestone deposits.

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Authors and Affiliations

Robert Uberman
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Abstract

One of the main problem of innovative projects in Russian Federation is the need to assess the impact of exogenous shocks on their financing and development. The impact of this type of shock in the period of globalization is sharply increasing. In order to assess the impact of exogenous shocks on innovative projects we create a model with two stages using the innovate project of production of water purification plants. The first stage of it is the construction of a simple model of financial risk, stipulating the conditions when investors will invest in this firm in the absence of negative shocks, their expectations will depend on their own confidence in continuing investment at the next stages. This model shows a positive result. At the second stage we take into account the impact of the negative exogenous shocks on the project, and try to trace a reaction of companies involved in financing innovative projects. The results of the project were negative. The investor in this case as a rule can stop financing and has the risk of losses. In order to prevent this situation we propose to use a real option for a possible refusal to implement an innovative project in the event that the net present value after one year of financing will be negative or very small. To our opinion it is one of the best ways to reduce financial risks during the implementation of innovative projects for investors.
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Authors and Affiliations

Oksana A. Karpenko
Tatiana K. Blokhina
Elena V. Savenkova
Ghennadiy F. Abramov
Olga V. Rybakova
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Abstract

The economic downturn in Europe and in the world, has affected the traditional branches of industry in a particular way. Development plans of domestic coke plants in terms of main production assets for the next years have been presented. Taking into account the current market situation, the coke plants strategy should aim at risk minimization through application of already known technologies. On the other hand, investments in scope of new and innovative technologies which are connected with a high level of variability, should be seen as an opportunity. Thus, evaluation of investment projects should be done in a different way than so far. The traditional discount analysis, because of its static nature, does not take into account variability and options included in projects with many decision moments - it can prove to be not sufficient. A tool which helps the decision makers in such situations, is the real options analysis. The article presents the findings of the research-development project on coal blend pre-drying implementation, realized by Zdzieszowice Coke Plant and ICHPW in Zabrze. The results achieved so far, as well as the concerns resulting from the project, have been discussed in this article. Further project development plans, aiming at the construction of a semi industrial research installation for analysing the impact of pre-drying on the coke making process have been presented. The article describes premises for the application of real options analysis as a tool to evaluate projects, the results of which are uncertain. The origin and structure of real options as well as the conditions of their application compared to traditional, discount based project evaluation methods, have been presented. The origin and characteristic parameters of real options have been discussed. In the next part, by applying the NPV and real options method, the research-development undertaking of coal blend pre-drying implementation on two coke batteries, has been evaluated. In order to assess the real option's value of the project, which is a classic European call option, the Black-Scholes formula has been used. The achieved results have been compared as well as the flexibility rate of the analyzed research-development project has been defined.

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Authors and Affiliations

Piotr Żarczyński
Andrzej Strugała
Aleksander Sobolewski
Czesław Sikorski

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