The presence of the spare parts stock is a necessity to ensure the continuity of services. The supply of spare parts is a special case of the global supply chain. The main objective of our research is to propose a global spare parts management approach which allows decision makers to determine the essential points in stock management. Thus, it is important for the stock manager to evaluate the system considered from time to time based on performance indicators. Some of these indicators are presented in the form of a dashboard. The presentation of this chapter chronologically traces the progress of our research work. In the first part, we present the work related to the forecast of spare parts needs through parametric and statistical methods as well as a Bayesian modelling of demand forecasting. To measure the appreciation of the supply of spare parts inventory, the second part focuses on work related to the evaluation of the performance of the spare parts system. Thus, we concretize the link between the management of spare parts and maintenance in the third part, more precisely, in the performance evaluation of the joint -management of spare parts and maintenance, in order to visualize the influence of parameters on the system. In the last section of this chapter, we will present the metaheuristic methods and their use in the management of spare parts and maintenance and make an analysis on work done in the literature.

Construction risk assessment is the final and decisive stage of risk analysis. When highly changeable conditions of works execution are predicted, risk should be evaluated in the favorable, moderate, and difficult random conditions of construction. Given the random conditions, the schedule and cost estimate of the construction are developed. Based on these values, the risk of final deadline delay and the risk of total cost increase of construction completion are calculated. Next, the charts of the risks are elaborated. Risk changes are shown in the charts and are analyzed in the range [1, 0].

This article aims to identify potential risk factors affecting the implementation and synchronisation of surveying and construction works during building and operation of roads. The task was executed on the basis of literature studies and experience. The article is an introduction to the research that has been conducted by the authors on the reasonably precise index of factors which one may deal with during the implementation of facilities of this type. The raised issue is crucial for financial and time reasons, but what is important in the roads construction - also for social ones, as prolonged traffic disruption adversely affects the environment.

The purpose of this article is to present the preparation of Project Risk Assessment Methodology and its mitigation in complex construction projects. The main text provides a summary of the approach, the method used and the findings. The conclusions have been drawn that the proper tools for quantifying risks have to be based on the criteria specific for mathematical statistic and probability or at least fuzziness. Function, which makes possible to categorize any risks into one of the five categories, is a combination of probability and the impact on one of the items: people and their safety or budget, cost, schedule and planning or quality and performance. An attempt was made to express numerically the relationship between risks impacts and their level of likelihood. Also, a method of associating the influence of projects risks impacts on the extent of the likelihood of project risk occurrence which makes possible to determine the direction and the strength of this relationship was presented.

Risks pertaining to construction work relate to situations in which various events may randomly change the duration and cost of the project or worsen its quality. Because of possible significant changes of random events, favorable, moderate, and difficult conditions of construction work are considered. It is the first stage of the construction risk analysis. The probabilistic parameters of construction are identified and described by using the design characteristics model of the structure and the construction technology model. The first describes the probabilistic properties of the structure execution's technology. The second describes the probabilistic properties of the works execution. Both models contain basic probabilistic data for scheduling, cost estimating, and risk assessment of the construction.

The article presents an analysis and evaluation of the accident rate in selected European Union countries. On the basis of available statistical data, the analysis of accidents in various sectors of the European Union economy was carried out. Afterwards, a ranking of countries regarding accidents in the construction industry was developed. For the selected representative countries, analysis of changes in the indicators which characterize the accident rate during the period between 2008 and 2012 was carried out. Conclusions resulting from the conducted research were formulated.

In Poland, it often happens that construction objects are subject to demolition work for different reasons. Demolition, according the Construction Law, is defined as a type of construction works and, as such, represents a particular type of construction project. As in other construction projects, a very important phase, in addition to execution of the works, is to prepare, design and plan demolition works. Some demolition activities are covered by appropriate regulations and can be described as typical. On the other hand the technical side of demolition works depends on many factors such as: the type of building, its age, technical condition, type of construction, etc. This article covers the analysis of the stages and tasks in the preparatory phase of the building demolition. This work will also present a description of the tasks carried out during the demolition works based on the example of a historic tenement house located in Krakow. This analysis aims to identify implementation problems and sources of risk that may occur during this type of construction work.

The paper concerns a risk assessment and management methodology in critical infrastructures. The aim of the paper is to present researches on risk management within the experimentation tool based on the OSCAD software. The researches are focused on interdependent infrastructures where the specific phenomena, like escalating and cascading effects, may occur. The objective of the researches is to acquire knowledge about risk issues within interdependent infrastructures, to assess the usefulness of the OSCAD-based risk manager in this application domain, and to identify directions for further R&D works. The paper contains a short introduction to risk management in critical infrastructures, presents the state of the art, and the context, plan and scenarios of the performed validation experiments. Next, step by step, the validation is performed. It encompasses two collaborating infrastructures (railway, energy). It is shown how a hazardous event impacts the given infrastructure (primary and secondary eects) and the neighbouring infrastructure. In the conclusions the experiments are summarized, the OSCAD software assessed and directions of the future works identified.

The introduction of increasingly strict rules related to the processing and storage of animal waste, the growing demand for energy and the creation of sustainable animal husbandry have led to an increased interest in the production of clean energy from animal waste. The production of biogas and its subsequent burning on the farm is among the most promising technologies. One of the possibilities for the utilization of biogas is through the use of small aggregates for the combined production of electricity and heat energy based on an internal combustion engine. Analysis of such facilities that have been put into operation show that alternative technologies using biogas as fuel are better than conventional options, both from an economic and an environmental point of view. In this sense, however, the introduction of such a technology into operation is always associated with a number of risks, since investments in new technologies are influenced by technical and economic uncertainty. When planning and preparing the plan for the construction of such a biogas facility, the investment costs, technical support and profitability of the project are essential. Introducing critical economic and technical parameters to inform the farmer of all possible investments, operational and unforeseen risks will allow him to accept the challenges and choose the best solution for his farm. In this publication, an analysis and assessment of the risk has been carried out based on the characteristics of the technology – the possible consequences of the risk are also presented. A risk matrix related to the specifics of the object and the technology is proposed, with the help of which, the type of risk is identified. Based on an analysis of the obtained results, a motivated proposal for reducing the risk is made.

When considering tax reporting, taxpayers have an individual attitude towards the risk of being caught evading taxes by the tax authorities. This attitude is interdependent with how this inherent risk is perceived. We propose to analyse this phenomenon through a risk perspective by adding a risk attitude and corresponding perceived probability of being caught evading. In this paper, we study the dynamics of tax evasion under risk perception and attitude, and the consequent propensity of imitators to evade or to comply. Under this proposal, we conduct our experiments through a multi-agent based simulation. Simulation results suggest first that the risk attitude, in conjunction with perceived risk and its consequences are the main reasons to guarantee a low level of tax evasion. Secondly, results also demonstrate a non-linear impact of tax rate, investment interest rate and fines which is especially interesting and non-intuitive.

The article aims to study the determinants of the energy policy implementation process from

risks and danger perspectives by building the risk management system model. The research methodology

is based on the application of the risk map to the energy policy. Our results confirmed

that the risk map could be applied in the energy industry to identify the risks and to implement the

energy policy risk management system model which will prevent critical uncertainties and risk

structure, identified from the risk map as well as bring the energy industry to the future state by

implementing scenarios and strategies, developed by the World Energy Council. The research limitations

are that the main limits are concerned with the lack of the evaluation results of the energy

policy risks aimed for the system management of the changes which these risks may introduce. No

empirical study has been conducted. The application of the risk map is related in a major part to

the enterprise level with financial and technical purposes of changes. In the research we made an

attempt to develop the managerial recommendations for the regulators on how to make a transitions

of risks to opportunities of introducing and managing changes in the framework of the energy

policy risk management system model. The originality/ value of the paper consists firstly, in the innovativeness

of applying the tool of matrix forecasting to the energy sector; secondly, in providing

a supporting tool to policy-makers and managers decisions.

In this publication, the strategy of land resources administration is presented on the basis of consideration of proposed result factors. The research methodology is based on the use of the PESTLE analytical model in conjunction with economic-mathematical modeling. The scientific novelty of the publication is developing the technology of administration of land resources on the basis of cadastral and other statistical information, which allows obtaining scientifically grounded solutions on the use of land resources. Considering the process of Land Resources Administration as a procedure based on making certain decisions when creating a management system which takes into account the internal and external relationships in this system, the postulate is about determining the degree of trust in this system, establishing economic, environmental and social risks when using it. To a certain extent, the process of Land Resources Administration is a prediction of the effective use of this natural potential in the future. It should be noted that the reliability of the forecast decision depends on the nature and parameters of uncertainties and the duration of their validity. Consequently, while making operational decisions on land resources for a short perspective, the forecasting is more reliable than for a long one. It becomes an effective mechanism of objective evaluation of the state of land resources and the prospects for their use. In this publication the main influencing decision making factors and the technological scheme of the solution of the problem are given.

Morocco is basically an agricultural country; almost 40% of the workforce is employed in

this sector. Xylella fastidiosa is a xylem-inhabiting pathogen which can infect more than

300 plant species, although most host species are symptomless. Until relatively recently,

X. fastidiosa was primarily limited to North and South America, but in 2013 a widespread

epidemic of olive quick decline syndrome caused by this fastidious pathogen appeared in

southeastern Italy, and later several cases of X. fastidiosa outbreaks have been reported

in other European countries (France, Germany and Spain). Following these recently confirmed

findings of X. fastidiosa in the European Union, this bacterium has become a serious

threat to the Moroccan flora. The national phytosanitary authorities have adopted several

measures to prevent the introduction of X. fastidiosa into the national territory by deciding,

inter alia, to suspend importation of host plant species to the bacterium from infected

areas. This paper presents the phytosanitary risk of this bacterium in Morocco.

In this work, we perform an analysis of the characteristics of the one-year and ultimate reserve risk distributions commonly used in actuarial science: duration, first development factor, coefficient of variation, skewness coefficient, skewness-to-CoV ratio, emergence factor, emergence pattern, and risk margin run-off patterns. Our study is based on empirical data for two European markets: the Polish and Slovak markets. We provide benchmarks and ranges for the considered characteristics, as well as analyse the relations between them. We study Solvency II lines of business and compare our coefficients of variation to the Standard Formula reserve risk standard deviations. We investigate more deeply the topic of emergence pattern and risk margin run-off patterns.

The main goal of the studies was to collect information on the impact of the identified risk factors on the amount of costs incurred in the life cycle of buildings. The own studies were focused especially on residential and non-residential buildings. The studies consisted in obtaining expert opinions on the subject of the research involves in the non-random (arbitrary) selection of a sample of respondents from among specialists corresponding to the industry purpose of the studies and the research material. The research used the expert questionnaire method. The studies were divided into three stages. In the first stage, the identification and division of risk factors in the life cycle of buildings was performed. Then, experts assessed 45 selected risk factors that may affect the amount of costs incurred in the life cycle of buildings. In the last step, the research results were developed in the form of a checklist knowledge base, containing information about the potential impact of the identified risk factors in the life cycle of buildings on the amount of the corresponding components of life cycle costs.

Coastal areas face greater risk in terms of health and the environment. They are the most vulnerable to impacts resulting from climate change. Coastal areas with higher population density also have more environmental problems, such as natural disasters. Environmental health risks from chemicals and microbes continue threatening people living on small islands. Therefore, this study aims to: 1) conduct a chemical risk analysis of heavy metals Pb, Cr(VI), and Ni; 2) analyse the microbial risk posed by drinking water consumed daily by people on small islands. A method used to analyse the chemical risk of heavy metals was the environment health risk assessment (EHRA), whereas to analyse the microbial risk in small islands, the quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was used. The results showed that the concentration of heavy metals in drinking water was <0.0012 mg∙dm–3 for Pb, <0.01 mg∙dm–3 for Cr(VI), and <0.0019 mg∙dm–3 for Ni. The three heavy metals showed worrying results. Assessment and obtained risk quotient were less than one (RQ < 1) in all samples. Meanwhile, the microbial analysis found Escherichia coli, Acinetobacter calcoaceticus, Enterobacter sp ., and Citrobacter sp ., with risk characterised from low to high. Risk management is needed to control environmental health risks posed by heavy metals and the microbiological characteristics of drinking water on the small islands of the Spermonde Archipelago.

The aim of the study was to evaluate the combined effect of noise exposure and additional risk factors on permanent hearing threshold shift. Three additional risk factors were: exposure to organic solvents, smoking and elevated blood pressure.

The data on exposure and health status of employees were collected in 24 factories. The study group comprised of 3741 noise male exposed workers of: mean age 39±8 years, mean tenure 16±7 years and LEX,8h = 86 ± 5 dB. For each subject, hearing level was measured with pure tone audiometry, blood pressure and noise exposure were assessed from the records of local occupational health care and obligatory noise measurements performed by employers. Smoking and solvent exposure were assessed with questionnaire. The study group was divided into subgroups with respect to the considered risk factors. In the analysis, the distribution of hearing level of each subgroup was compared to the predicted one which the standard calculation method described in ISO 1999:1990. For each of the considered risk factors, the difference between measured and calculated hearing level distribution was used to establish, by the least square method, a noise dose related correction square function for the standard method. The considered risk factors: solvent exposure, smoking and elevated blood pressure combined with noise exposure, may increase degree of hearing loss.

This work is a contribution to a normative approach of noise assessment in the professional environment. It permits the identification of the affected workstations on the one hand and on the other hand it constitutes an important support to the preoccupations of the impact study on the environment in plants. It also informs us on the adequate preparation of the procedures required by the Environmental Management System (ISO 14001) being implemented in steel-making complex ArcelorMittal Algeria. It constitutes an answer to the recommended environmental politics. The proposed calculation methods are verified according to the recognized sources (ISO 9612, 2009) and the results will be estimated in relation to the legal thresholds recommended by international bodies. The methodology for measuring the noise exposure levels has been done according to the following steps: work analysis; selection of measurement strategy; measurements; error handling and uncertainty evaluations; calculations; and presentation of results. This will lead us to an implementation of a corrective and preventive action plan intended to master this occupational risk carrying prejudice to the health of the workers.

System Dynamics is methodology for modeling and analyzing complex systems. Such systems can be characterized by interconnectedness and feedback. Applying risk assessment to the results of System Dynamics models is a challenge. Though in some cases the resulting time series data generated by a simulation may appear approximately random at a specific scale, there is often a high-degree of auto-correlation within the data series due to the deterministic nature of generation and feedback loops inherent in the system. This paper presents proposed Dynamic Risk Assessment Method (DRAM) that allows for the estimation of risk for system dynamics data series that appear to be approximately random. DRAM is based on standard risk assessment methods and is simple both to calculate and apply. In this article, the proposed method is applied to determine the risk connected with hypothetical costs of illness stemming from water supply system contamination with Cryptosporidium.

This paper addresses the issue of antibacterial drugs, estrogens and cytostatic drugs’ presence in

surface waters and their influence on animals. The ecotoxicity and the impact of three active compounds: ciprofloxacin, 17α-ethinylestradiol and 5-fluorouracil on protozoa, crustaceans and fish were examined. Acute

tests (crustaceans’ immobilization test, fish survival test, enzymatic test on Daphnia magna) and chronic tests

(growth test on protozoa, reproduction test on crustaceans and juvenile growth test on two species of fish) were

performed. Acute toxicity studies revealed diversified species - sensitivity to the tested compounds. Crustaceans Artemia salina were the most resistant to all three pharmaceuticals. Fish also demonstrated low sensitivity

to ciprofloxacin and 5-fluorouracil (LC(EC)50-96h > 100 mg/l). In the survival tests, the greatest harm in respect

to fish and crustaceans was demonstrated by 17α-ethinylestradiol, and in the enzymatic tests - by ciprofloxacin.

In all chronic tests, the toxic effects of drugs were proven. Tested compounds limited reproduction of crustaceans and growth of protozoa and fry. The risk assessment, conducted on the basis of the PEC/PNEC quotient,

showed a significant risk in relation to aquatic animals caused by the presence of 17α-ethinylestradiol and

5-fluorouracil in concentrations detected in surface waters.

Disorders of the heart and blood vessels are the leading cause of health problems and death. Early detection of them is extremely valuable as it can prevent serious incidents (e.g. heart attack, stroke) and associated complications. This requires extending the typical mobile monitoring methods (e.g. Holter ECG, tele-ECG) by introduction of integrated, multiparametric solutions for continuous monitoring of the cardiovascular system.

In this paper we propose the wearable system that integrates measurements of cardiac data with actual estimation of the cardiovascular risk level. It consists of two wirelessly connected devices, one designed in the form of a necklace, the another one in the form of a bracelet (wrist watch). These devices enable continuous measurement of electrocardiographic, plethysmographic (impedance-based and optical-based) and accelerometric signals. Collected signals and calculated parameters indicate the electrical and mechanical state of the heart and are processed to estimate a risk level. Depending on the risk level an appropriate alert is triggered and transmitted to predefined users (e.g. emergency departments, the family doctor, etc.).

Investor bears responsibility for proper preparation of the investment process. One of his tasks is to prepare the project documentation and obtaina building permit. Frequently, during his work, there are situations and events whose im pact interferes with the design solutions. Regardless of reasons, alterations to a project constitute a source of cost risk. In each case, the Investor should be prepared for this type of a risk. Exposure to risk should be taken into account in the planning stage of the investment. Also, a model of investment execution should be chosen at this stage. The type of model is associated with the distribution of risk throughout the project. The aim of this paper is to identify events that generate risk related to alterations to Project Documentation in the context of the selection of the investment executionmodel.

The paper presents an approach for evaluation of the likelihood of damage to the transportation infrastructure in the context of the terrorist attacks on the example of a number of bridges located in Wrocław (Poland). Assuming that there will be only one bridge destroyed in a given area, in order to determine the probability of damage to one of the objects, there was one of multi-criteria optimi-zation methods used, i.e. the method of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The main advantage of the analysis carried out was that the accepted hierarchy of decision-making options could be easily explained in a scientifi c manner, not only with reference to personal knowledge, experience, and intuition.

During the planning and controlling of the construction process, most attention is focu sed on risk analysis, especially in the context of final costs and deadlines of the investment. In this analysis, the primary and most significant concern is the proper identification and quantification of events, which on a certain level of probability may affect the development process. This paper presents the result of a risk analysis for a particular building object, made after completion of the investment and accepting it for use. Knowledge of the planned values and the actual investment process allowed for the identification of the events and their effects that in this case have significantly disrupted the investment process. The limited total cost of the investment project in question had a considerable impact on the progress of the project execution. Despite three transitions of administrative procedures, the opening date of the shopping centre was delayed by only three weeks.