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Abstract

Morocco is basically an agricultural country; almost 40% of the workforce is employed in

this sector. Xylella fastidiosa is a xylem-inhabiting pathogen which can infect more than

300 plant species, although most host species are symptomless. Until relatively recently,

X. fastidiosa was primarily limited to North and South America, but in 2013 a widespread

epidemic of olive quick decline syndrome caused by this fastidious pathogen appeared in

southeastern Italy, and later several cases of X. fastidiosa outbreaks have been reported

in other European countries (France, Germany and Spain). Following these recently confirmed

findings of X. fastidiosa in the European Union, this bacterium has become a serious

threat to the Moroccan flora. The national phytosanitary authorities have adopted several

measures to prevent the introduction of X. fastidiosa into the national territory by deciding,

inter alia, to suspend importation of host plant species to the bacterium from infected

areas. This paper presents the phytosanitary risk of this bacterium in Morocco.

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Authors and Affiliations

Mohamed Afechtal
Antonio Vicent
Maria Saponari
Anna Maria D’Onghia
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Abstract

During the planning and controlling of the construction process, most attention is focu sed on risk analysis, especially in the context of final costs and deadlines of the investment. In this analysis, the primary and most significant concern is the proper identification and quantification of events, which on a certain level of probability may affect the development process. This paper presents the result of a risk analysis for a particular building object, made after completion of the investment and accepting it for use. Knowledge of the planned values and the actual investment process allowed for the identification of the events and their effects that in this case have significantly disrupted the investment process. The limited total cost of the investment project in question had a considerable impact on the progress of the project execution. Despite three transitions of administrative procedures, the opening date of the shopping centre was delayed by only three weeks.

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Authors and Affiliations

M. Lendo-Siwicka
M. Połoński
K. Pawluk
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Abstract

The aim of the presented work was to examine the reliability assessment model on the example of a selected power grid object. The analyzed object was tested based on assumptions about technological breaks that were caused by overvoltage, among others. The study was conducted to check the reliability of integral elements of the power grid object and to assess the change in reliability level as a function of the frequency of inspections. The test results are to determine the optimal frequency of inspections of individual power grid objects in order to increase its reliability. In addition, the possibility of correlating optimal inspection periods resulting from the findings of this paper with periodic inspections of power network facilities was assessed.

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Authors and Affiliations

M. Borecki
M. Ciuba
Y. Kharchenko
Y. Khanas
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Abstract

Background: Recoarctation (reCoA) of the aorta is a common complication after the Norwood procedure. Untreated, it can lead to failure of the systemic ventricle and death. The main goal of the study is to defi ne risk factors of reCoA after the Norwood procedure in hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS).

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the pre-, intra- and postoperative data of 96 successive patients who underwent the Norwood procedure between 2007 and 2011. In case of reCoA balloon angioplasty was performed. We analyzed and compared the data of the patients with reCoA and without reCoA using the StatSoft STATISTICA™ 10 soft ware.

Results: ReCoA was noted in 23 patients (33.3%). Th is complication was diagnosed 95.1 days (49–156 days) on the average aft er the Norwood procedure. Balloon angioplasty successfully allowed for decreasing the mean gradient across the site of the narrowing from the average 27.5 mmHg to the average 9.7 mmHg (p = 0.008) and enlarged the neo-isthmus by the average of 2 mm (p <0.05). Th e risks factors seemed to be the diameter of the ascending aorta OR = 7.82 (p = 0.001), atresia of the mitral valve OR = 7.00 (p = 0.003) and atresia of the aortic valve — OR = 6.22 (p = 0.002).

Conclusion: Balloon angioplasty seems to be an eff ective intervention in case of reCoA. A low diameter of the native ascending aorta (≤3mm) and the presence of atresia of the mitral and/or aortic valve should intensify the vigilance of a cardiologist in the search for signs of reCoA of the aorta.

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Authors and Affiliations

Alexandre Szypulski
Vivek Rai
Julita Sacharczuk
Marcin Gładki
Aleksandra Morka
Rafał Żurek
Janusz H. Skalski
Tomasz Mroczek
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Abstract

The introduction of increasingly strict rules related to the processing and storage of animal waste, the growing demand for energy and the creation of sustainable animal husbandry have led to an increased interest in the production of clean energy from animal waste. The production of biogas and its subsequent burning on the farm is among the most promising technologies. One of the possibilities for the utilization of biogas is through the use of small aggregates for the combined production of electricity and heat energy based on an internal combustion engine. Analysis of such facilities that have been put into operation show that alternative technologies using biogas as fuel are better than conventional options, both from an economic and an environmental point of view. In this sense, however, the introduction of such a technology into operation is always associated with a number of risks, since investments in new technologies are influenced by technical and economic uncertainty. When planning and preparing the plan for the construction of such a biogas facility, the investment costs, technical support and profitability of the project are essential. Introducing critical economic and technical parameters to inform the farmer of all possible investments, operational and unforeseen risks will allow him to accept the challenges and choose the best solution for his farm. In this publication, an analysis and assessment of the risk has been carried out based on the characteristics of the technology – the possible consequences of the risk are also presented. A risk matrix related to the specifics of the object and the technology is proposed, with the help of which, the type of risk is identified. Based on an analysis of the obtained results, a motivated proposal for reducing the risk is made.
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Authors and Affiliations

Konstantin Vasilev Kostov
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Manufacturing and Thermal Engineering, Technical University of Sofia, Faculty of Engineering and Pedagogy of Sliven, Bulgaria
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Abstract

Hass avocado cultivation in Colombia has grown rapidly in area in recent years. It is being planted in marginal areas, which leads to low yields, and in many cases is related to diseases. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) can offer a view of the potential geographic and environmental distribution of diseases, and thus identify areas with suitable or unsuitable conditions for their development. The aim of the study was to assess current and potential distribution of the major diseases on Hass avocado in Colombia. Areas planted with Hass avocado in Antioquia, Colombia were sampled for diseases including the following pathogens: Phytophthora cinnamomi, Verticillium sp., Lasiodiplodia theobromae, Phytophthora palmivora, Colletotrichum gloeosporioides sensu lato, Pestalotia sp., and Capnodium sp., and one disorder hypoxia-anoxia. These pathogens were selected based on their relevance (incidence-severity) and capacity to cause damage in different tissues of avocado plants. Severity and incidence of each disease were related to environmental information from vegetation indices and topographic variables using maximum entropy modeling approaches (MaxEnt). Models were calibrated only across areas sampled, and then transferred more broadly to areas currently planted, and to potential zones for planting. Combinations of best performance and low omission rates were the basis for model selection. Results show that Hass avocado has been planted in areas highly conducive for many pathogens, particularly for Phytophthora cinnamomi and hypoxia-anoxia disorder. Ecological niche modeling approaches offer an alternative toolset for planning and making assessments that can be incorporated into disease management plans.

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Authors and Affiliations

Joaquín Guillermo Ramírez-Gil
Andrew Townsend Peterson
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Abstract

The level of wheat grain contamination with lead and cadmium was determined using electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry with Zeeman background correction (ETAAS) after microwave digestion. The obtained limits of quantification were 0.001 mg∙kg–1, for both metals. A total of 300 samples of wheat grain from agricultural regions of Poland were examined, 150 each from the two consecutive harvest years 2017 and 2018.
None of the tested samples exceeded the maximum level of these metals, as specified in the European regulations. The contents of lead and cadmium in wheat grain from both years of harvest ranged from <0.001 to 0.098 mg∙kg –1 and from 0.006 to 0.098 mg∙kg –1, respectively. Despite similar ranges of these metals, the highest lead contents were two times lower than the maximum limit value, while the highest cadmium contents were close to it.
As for lead, a significantly higher (p < 0.05) mean content of this metal was found in wheat grain from the 2018 harvest compared to 2017 and in the western compared to eastern regions of the country. However, the cadmium contents did not differ significantly between the two harvest years, but were significantly higher (p < 0.05) in wheat grain from the southern regions compared to northern regions of Poland. Additionally, the highest contents of cadmium, close to the maximum limit, were found in the South-West region and in the both years of harvest.
The risk analysis of the occurrence of the excessive contents of toxic metals in wheat grain showed a low risk level for lead in all investigated regions, and a medium level for cadmium, in general.
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Authors and Affiliations

Renata Jędrzejczak
1
ORCID: ORCID
Wiesława Ręczajska
1

  1. Prof. Waclaw Dabrowski Institute of Agricultural and Food Biotechnology – State Research Institute, Rakowiecka 36, 02-532, Warsaw, Poland
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Abstract

The paper depicts a complex, distributed information system aimed at promoting cybersecurity awareness at the national level. The system, that is built in accordance with the Act on National Cybersecurity, passed by the Polish Parliament, enables collecting and processing in near-real time available information on the security status of essential services and digital services and, also, provides for assessment of negative impact of the identified threats concerned with the provision of those services. Advanced access control and dissemination mechanisms, for secure information sharing within the system, are provided in order to aggregate distributed knowledge and use this information for online security risk analysis and for generation and distribution of early warnings.

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Authors and Affiliations

Marek Amanowicz
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Abstract

The effectiveness of lightning protection on the power and distribution grid is a significant factor, which influences the power distribution reliability and the failure rate of system elements. As part of this article, a mathematical model will be presented, taking into account selected parameters that affect the assessment of the lightning hazard of an overhead line. The proposed model will consider the location of the object near the line and the adjustment of line conductor overhangs. Moreover, the mentioned mathematical model allows for analyzing the impact of considered parameters on the protection level of the power system, and transient overvoltages that occur in this system. The article contains also a detailed description of an effective and fast method to assess the lightning discharge impact on the power system with insufficient data. The introduced model was tested to verify the correctness of its operation by comparison of calculation results and functional data. High convergence of calculated and functional data and uncomplicated model structure ensure a wide range of applications for the proposed solution to easily prevent emergency situations in the power system. Furthermore, the described model gives the opportunity to assess the reduction of the range of selectivity zone associated with the power line, in conjunction with the impact of constructional peculiarities and a near object.

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Bibliography

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Authors and Affiliations

Michał Borecki
1
ORCID: ORCID
Maciej Ciuba
1
Yevhen Kharchenko
2 3
Yuriy Khanas
3

  1. Warsaw University of Technology, ul. Koszykowa 75, 00-662 Warsaw, Poland
  2. University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, ul. M. Oczapowskiego 2, 10-719 Olsztyn, Poland
  3. Lviv Polytechnic National University, ul. S. Bandery St 12, 79000 Lviv, Ukraine
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Abstract

FMEAs have been prioritized using RPN; however, a new standard has introduced AP for prioritization. This study seeks to determine if the number of required improvement actions increases, decreases, or stays the same when using AP in place of RPN. Statistical software was used to simulate 10,000 combinations of severity, occurrence, and detection. Both AP and RPN were calculated for the 10,000 combinations. Statistical hypothesis testing was performed to determine if there was a difference between RPNs when sorted by AP and to determine if there was a difference in actions required using RPN or AP. There is a statistically significant difference between RPNs when sorted by high, medium, and low AP. Using an RPN threshold equal to or greater than 100 would result in no change in the number of actions required if prioritizing by high and medium, but would result in fewer actions required if only high is used.
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Authors and Affiliations

Matthew Barsalou
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Automotive Industry, Germany
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Abstract

Approximately 30 million tons of tailings are being stored each year at the KGHMs Zelazny Most Tailings Storage Facility (TSF). Covering an area of almost 1.6 thousand hectares, and being surrounded by dams of a total length of 14 km and height of over 70 m in some areas, makes it the largest reservoir of post-flotation tailings in Europe and the second-largest in the world. With approximately 2900 monitoring instruments and measuring points surrounding the facility, Zelazny Most is a subject of round-the-clock monitoring, which for safety and economic reasons is crucial not only for the immediate surroundings of the facility but for the entire region. The monitoring network can be divided into four main groups: (a) geotechnical, consisting mostly of inclinometers and VW pore pressure transducers, (b) hydrological with piezometers and water level gauges, (c) geodetic survey with laser and GPS measurements, as well as surface and in-depth benchmarks, (d) seismic network, consisting primarily of accelerometer stations. Separately a variety of different chemical analyses are conducted, in parallel with spigotting processes and relief wells monitorin. This leads to a large amount of data that is difficult to analyze with conventional methods. In this article, we discuss a machine learning-driven approach which should improve the quality of the monitoring and maintenance of such facilities. Overview of the main algorithms developed to determine the stability parameters or classification of tailings are presented. The concepts described in this article will be further developed in the IlluMINEation project (H2020).
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Authors and Affiliations

Wioletta Koperska
1
ORCID: ORCID
Maria Stachowiak
1
ORCID: ORCID
Natalia Duda-Mróz
1
ORCID: ORCID
Paweł Stefaniak
1
ORCID: ORCID
Bartosz Jachnik
1
ORCID: ORCID
Bartłomiej Bursa
2
ORCID: ORCID
Paweł Stefanek
3
ORCID: ORCID

  1. KGHM Cuprum Research and Development Centre, gen. W. Sikorskiego 2-8, 53-659 Wrocław, Poland
  2. GEOTEKO Serwis Ltd., ul. Wałbrzyska 14/16, 02-739 Warszawa, Poland
  3. KGHM Polska Miedz S.A., M. Skłodowskiej-Curie 48, 59-301 Lubin, Poland
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Abstract

The s-period ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) for a portfolio of dimension n is considered and its Bayesian analysis is discussed. The VaR assessment can be based either on the n-variate predictive distribution of future returns on individual assets, or on the univariate Bayesian model for the portfolio value (or the return on portfolio). In both cases Bayesian VaR takes into account parameter uncertainty and non-linear relationship between ordinary and logarithmic returns. In the case of a large portfolio, the applicability of the n-variate approach to Bayesian VaR depends on the form of the statistical model for asset prices. We use the n-variate type I MSF-SBEKK(1,1) volatility model proposed specially to cope with large n. We compare empirical results obtained using this multivariate approach and the much simpler univariate approach based on modelling volatility of the value of a given portfolio.

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Authors and Affiliations

Jacek Osiewalski
Anna Pajor
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Abstract

In the existent world of continuous production systems, strong attention has been waged

to anonymous risk that probably generates significant apprehension. The forecast for net

present value is extremely important for any production plant. The objective of this paper

is to implement Monte Carlo simulation technique for perceiving the impact of risk and uncertainty

in prediction and forecasting company’s profitability. The production unit under

study is interested to make the initial investment by installing an additional spray dryer

plant. The expressive values acquied from the Monte Carlo technique established a range of

certain results. The expected net present value of the cash flow is $14,605, hence the frequency

chart outcomes confirmed that there is the highest level of certainty that the company

will achieve its target. To forecast the net present value for the next period, the results

confirmed that there are 50.73% chances of achieving the outcomes. Considering the minimum

and maximum values at 80% certainty level, it was observed that 80% chances exist

that expected outcomes will be between $5,830 and $22,587. The model’s sensitivity results

validated that cash inflows had a greater sensitivity level of 21.1% and the cash inflows for

the next year as 19.7%. Cumulative frequency distribution confirmed that the probability

to achieve a maximum value of $23,520 is 90 % and for the value of $6,244 it is about 10 %.

These validations suggested that controlling the expenditures, the company’s outflows can

also be controlled definitely.

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Authors and Affiliations

Zahid Hussain
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Abstract

The chapter deals with the issue of the risk and security management process in public administration, according to the internal audit standards and their requirements. Main legal acts and standards were specified and shortly described. Specially the risk analysis process and security measures selection were emphasized. The possibility to use the software tools for the risk analysis and security measures selection support in public administration was presented. The experiment of OSCAD usage in public administration was shortly described and its results were presented. This experiment shows that the software primarily intended for IT Security Management can be used for risk management in different area as well, for example – in public administration. Some possibilities of further development of risk management supporting tools were proposed.

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Authors and Affiliations

Jacek Bagiński
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Abstract

One of the parameters characterizing the quality of the gaseous fuel transported in gas pipeline network to consumers and being the basis for the classification of gaseous fuels is the heat of combustion. The main research hypothesis of this paper is the analysis of the possibility of using MLP 18-yi-1 neural network model to forecast the natural gas heat of combustion with a forecast error smaller than in case it calculates the heat of combustion based on the composition of natural gas predicted using the MLP 18-65-5 (Szoplik and Muchel, 2023). The training of the models was carried out on the basis of 8760 real data, presenting the hourly heat of natural gas combustion at one of the measurement points of this parameter in the pipeline network. The model takes into account the influence of calendar factors (month, day of the month, day of the week and hour of the day) and weather factors (ambient temperature) on the amount of heat of natural gas combustion in a given location of the gas network. Many MLP 18-yi-1 models were trained, differing in the number of neurons in the hidden layer and activation functions of neurons in the hidden and output layers.
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Authors and Affiliations

Jolanta Szoplik
1
ORCID: ORCID
Paulina Muchel
1

  1. West Pomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin, Faculty of Chemical Technologyand Engineering, Department of Chemical and Process Engineering, Piastów 42, 71-065Szczecin, Poland
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Abstract

Complex construction projects require appropriate planning that allows for time and cost optimization, maximization of the use of available resources and appropriate investment control. Scheduling is a complicated process, due to the uncertainties and risks associated with construction works, the paper describes the development of the scheduling method traditionally used in Poland, based on data from KNR catalogs, by using the RiskyProject Professional program. In the RiskyProject Professional program, the risk and uncertainty with reference to a specific construction project were modeled, and the calculation results were compared with the real time of the project implementation. The conclusions from the work carried out confirm that the SRA (Schedule Risk Analysis) analysis of the base schedule allows for a more faithful representation of the actual conditions of a construction project. The probability of investment realization generated on the basis of the SRA analysis may be assumed at the level of 75÷90%.
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Authors and Affiliations

Paulina Kostrzewa-Demczuk
1
ORCID: ORCID
Magdalena Rogalska
2
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Kielce University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Al. Tysiąclecia Państwa Polskiego 7, 25-314 Kielce, Poland
  2. Lublin University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Nadbystrzycka St. 40, 20-618 Lublin, Poland
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Abstract

The list of potential hazards related to concrete elements and structures prestressed with the use of unbonded tendons, including the flat slabs, is long and fairly well recognized. In addition to the standard accidental events this list includes: mishandling during construction, small fire, local corrosion, loss of bond at the anchorage, second order effects, brittle fracture of elements, etc. Despite of these hazards related to unbonded post-tensioning, this type of structures are extensively promoted and used in practice thanks to the possibility of the large span floors and innovative character of this technology. The paper presents a proposal for the application of risk analysis to assess the robustness of structures with flat slabs prestressed with unbonded tendons. The adoption of variables that determine risk and robustness as fuzzy numbers assigned to linguistic variables are proposed. Numerical example is presented to demonstrate risk and robustness assessment of building structure with unbonded posttensioned slabs supported directly on columns.
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Bibliography

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Authors and Affiliations

Szczepan Woliński
1
ORCID: ORCID
Tomasz Pytlowany
2
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Rzeszów University of Technology, The Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Architecture, Powstanców Warszawy 12, 35-084 Rzeszów, Poland
  2. Carpathian State College in Krosno, Politechnik Institutution, Dmochowskiego 12, 38-400 Krosno, Poland
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Abstract

The article describes a shock safety modeling method for low-voltage electric devices, based on using a Bayesian network. This method allows for taking into account all possible combinations of the reliability and unreliability states for the shock protection elements under concern. The developed method allows for investigating electric shock incidents, analysing and assessing shock risks, as well as for determining criteria of dimensioning shock protection means, also with respect to reliability of the particular shock protection elements. Dependencies for determining and analysing the probability of appearance of reliability states of protection as well as an electric shock risk are presented in the article.
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Authors and Affiliations

Włodzimierz Korniluk
Dariusz Sajewicz
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Abstract

The article presents a shock safety model of an indirect contact with a low-voltage electric device. This model was used for computations and analyses concerning the following: the probabilities of appearance of the particular shock protection unreliability states, electric shock states (ventricular fibrillation), contributions of the unreliability of different shock protection elements to the probability of occurrence of these states, as well as the risk of electric shock (and the shock safety), and contributions of the intensity of occurrence of damages to different shock protection elements to this risk. An example of a possibility to reduce the risk of an electric shock through changing the intensity of occurrence of damages to the selected protection elements was provided.

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Authors and Affiliations

Włodzimierz Korniluk
Dariusz Sajewicz
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Abstract

Coastal areas face greater risk in terms of health and the environment. They are the most vulnerable to impacts resulting from climate change. Coastal areas with higher population density also have more environmental problems, such as natural disasters. Environmental health risks from chemicals and microbes continue threatening people living on small islands. Therefore, this study aims to: 1) conduct a chemical risk analysis of heavy metals Pb, Cr(VI), and Ni; 2) analyse the microbial risk posed by drinking water consumed daily by people on small islands. A method used to analyse the chemical risk of heavy metals was the environment health risk assessment (EHRA), whereas to analyse the microbial risk in small islands, the quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was used. The results showed that the concentration of heavy metals in drinking water was <0.0012 mg∙dm–3 for Pb, <0.01 mg∙dm–3 for Cr(VI), and <0.0019 mg∙dm–3 for Ni. The three heavy metals showed worrying results. Assessment and obtained risk quotient were less than one (RQ < 1) in all samples. Meanwhile, the microbial analysis found Escherichia coli, Acinetobacter calcoaceticus, Enterobacter sp ., and Citrobacter sp ., with risk characterised from low to high. Risk management is needed to control environmental health risks posed by heavy metals and the microbiological characteristics of drinking water on the small islands of the Spermonde Archipelago.
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Authors and Affiliations

Agus B. Birawida
1
ORCID: ORCID
Anwar Daud
1
ORCID: ORCID
Erniwati Ibrahim
1
ORCID: ORCID
Healthy Hidayanty
2
ORCID: ORCID
Nurlia Sila
1
ORCID: ORCID
Maming Maming
3
ORCID: ORCID
Muhammad Nur
4
ORCID: ORCID
Ain Khaer
5
ORCID: ORCID
Andi I. Arundhana
6
ORCID: ORCID
Arsunan Arsin
7
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Hasanuddin University, Department of Environmental Health, Jl. Perintis Kemerdekaan Km 10, Makassar, South Sulawesi, 90245, Indonesia
  2. Hasanuddin University, Department of Nutrition, Jl. Perintis Kemerdekaan Km 10, Makassar, South Sulawesi, 90245, Indonesia
  3. Hasanuddin University, Department of Chemistry, Jl. Perintis Kemerdekaan Km 10, Makassar, South Sulawesi, 90245, Indonesia
  4. Hasanuddin University, Department of Mathematics, Jl. Perintis Kemerdekaan Km 10, Makassar, South Sulawesi, 90245, Indonesia
  5. Health Polytechnic, Department of Environmental Health, Jl.Wijaya Kusuma 1 No.2, Makasssar, South Sulawesi, 90222, Indonesia
  6. The University of Sidney, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Science Rd, Camperdown NSW 2050, Australia
  7. Hasanuddin University, Department of Epidemiology, Jl. Perintis Kemerdekaan Km 10, Makassar, South Sulawesi, 90245, Indonesia

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