@ARTICLE{Malysh_Nina_Forecasting_2022,
 author={Malysh, Nina and Podavalenko, Alla and Kuzmenko, Olga and Kolomiets, Svitlana},
 volume={Vol. 62},
 number={No 1},
 journal={Folia Medica Cracoviensia},
 pages={103-120},
 howpublished={online},
 year={2022},
 publisher={Oddział PAN w Krakowie; Uniwersytet Jagielloński – Collegium Medicum},
 abstract={Coronavirus infection (COVID-19) is a highly infectious disease of viral etiology. SARS-CoV-2 virus was first identified during the investigation of the outbreak of respiratory disease in Wuhan, China in December 2019. And already on March 11, 2020 COVID-19 in the world was characterized by the WHO as a pandemic. In Ukraine the situation with incidence COVID-19 remains difficult. The purpose of this study is to to develop a mathematical forecasting model for COVID-19 incidence in Ukraine using an exponential smoothing method. The article analyzes reports on basic COVID-19 incidence rates from 29.02.2019 to 01.10.2021. In order to determine the forecast levels of statistical indicators that characterize the epidemic process of COVID-19 the method of exponential smoothing was used. It is expected that from 29.02.2019 to 01.10.2021 the epidemic situation of COVID-19 incidence will stabilize. The indicator of “active patients” will range from 159.04 to 353.63 per 100 thousand people. The indicator of “hospitalized patients” can reach 15.43 and “fatalities” — 1.87. The use of the method of exponential smoothing based on time series models for modeling the dynamics of COVID-19 incidence allows to develop and implement scientifically sound methods in order to prevent, quickly prepare health care institutions for hospitalization.},
 type={Article},
 title={Forecasting of COVID-19 incidence in Ukraine using the method of exponential smoothing},
 URL={http://journals.pan.pl/Content/124808/PDF-MASTER/2022-01-FMC-08-Malysh.pdf},
 doi={10.24425/fmc.2022.141694},
 keywords={COVID-19, forecasting, method of exponential smoothing},
}