TY - JOUR
N2 - In the study we introduce an extension to a stochastic volatility in mean model (SV-M), allowing for discrete regime switches in the risk premium parameter. The logic behind the idea is that neglecting a possibly regimechanging nature of the relation between the current volatility (conditional standard deviation) and asset return within an ordinary SV-M specication may lead to spurious insignicance of the risk premium parameter (as being ‛averaged out’ over the regimes). Therefore, we allow the volatility-in-mean eect to switch over dierent regimes according to a discrete homogeneous two-state Markov chain. We treat the new specication within the Bayesian framework, which allows to fully account for the uncertainty of model parameters, latent conditional variances and hidden Markov chain state variables. Standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, including the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, are adapted to estimate the model and to obtain predictive densities of selected quantities. Presented methodology is applied to analyse series of the Warsaw Stock Exchange index (WIG) and its sectoral subindices. Although rare, once spotted the switching in-mean eect substantially enhances the model t to the data, as measured by the value of the marginal data density.
L1 - http://journals.pan.pl/Content/103804/PDF/mainFile.pdf
L2 - http://journals.pan.pl/Content/103804
PY - 2010
IS - No 1
EP - 59-94
KW - Markov switching
KW - risk premium
KW - in-mean effect
KW - Bayesian analysis
A1 - Kwiatkowski, Łukasz
PB - Oddział PAN w Łodzi
SP - 59-94
T1 - Markov Switching In-Mean Effect. Bayesian Analysis in Stochastic Volatility Framework
DA - 31.03.2010
UR - http://journals.pan.pl/dlibra/publication/edition/103804
DOI - 10.24425/cejeme.2010.119320
ER -