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Abstract

Illnesses with aerosol mode of transmission dominate in the structure of infectious diseases. Influenced by natural, social and biological factors, epidemiological characteristics of the infectious diseases change, that’s why the objective of this research was to determine modern peculiar features of the epide-miological situation regarding viral infections with aerosol transmission in Ukraine. Influenza incidence ranged from 31.14‒184.45 per 100 thousand people, other acute respiratory viral infections from 13685.24‒ 18382.5. Epidemic process of measles was characterized by increasing incidence in 2018 and 2019. In Ukraine, there is a tendency to reduce the incidence of rubella and mumps (р <0.05). The positive effect of immunization on the incidence of mumps and rubella has been established. Vaccination against measles cannot be considered as evidence of immunity against measles. The demographic situation in Ukraine may indirectly influence the intensity of the epidemic situation of viral infections with aerosol transmission.
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Bibliography

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26. Lambert N., Strebel, Orenstein W., et al.: Rubella. Lancet. 2015; 385 (9984): 2297–2307. doi: 10.1016/ S0140-6736(14)60539-0
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Authors and Affiliations

Nina Malysh
1
Alla Podavalenko
2
Victoriya Zadorozhna
3
Svetlana Biryukova
4

  1. Department of Infectious Diseases with Epidemiology, Sumy State University, Sumy, Ukraine
  2. Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Occupational Diseases, Kharkiv Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, Kharkiv, Ukraine
  3. SI «Institute of Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases named after L.V. Gromashevsky National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine», Kyiv, Ukraine
  4. Department of Microbiology, Bacteriology, Virology, Clinical and Laboratory Immunology, Kharkiv Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, Kharkiv, Ukraine
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Abstract

Coronavirus infection (COVID-19) is a highly infectious disease of viral etiology. SARS-CoV-2 virus was first identified during the investigation of the outbreak of respiratory disease in Wuhan, China in December 2019. And already on March 11, 2020 COVID-19 in the world was characterized by the WHO as a pandemic. In Ukraine the situation with incidence COVID-19 remains difficult. The purpose of this study is to to develop a mathematical forecasting model for COVID-19 incidence in Ukraine using an exponential smoothing method. The article analyzes reports on basic COVID-19 incidence rates from 29.02.2019 to 01.10.2021. In order to determine the forecast levels of statistical indicators that characterize the epidemic process of COVID-19 the method of exponential smoothing was used. It is expected that from 29.02.2019 to 01.10.2021 the epidemic situation of COVID-19 incidence will stabilize. The indicator of “active patients” will range from 159.04 to 353.63 per 100 thousand people. The indicator of “hospitalized patients” can reach 15.43 and “fatalities” — 1.87. The use of the method of exponential smoothing based on time series models for modeling the dynamics of COVID-19 incidence allows to develop and implement scientifically sound methods in order to prevent, quickly prepare health care institutions for hospitalization.
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Authors and Affiliations

Nina Malysh
1
Alla Podavalenko
2
Olga Kuzmenko
3
Svitlana Kolomiets
3

  1. Department of Infectious Diseases with Epidemiology, Sumy State University, Rymskogo-Korsakova 2, Sumy, Ukraine
  2. Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Occupational Diseases, Kharkiv Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, Amosova, 58, Kharkiv, Ukraine
  3. Department of Economic Cybernetics, Sumy State University, Rymskogo-Korsakova 2, Sumy, Ukraine
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Abstract

The article, based on the reports of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, presents the materials of the epidemiological surveillance of salmonellosis in 2011–2018. To assess the influence of factors on the epidemic process of salmonellosis, the demographic situation, income and living conditions of the popu-lation were studied; average monthly air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation; the quantitative and qualitative composition of the microbiocenosis of patients with signs of acute intestinal infection. It was found that in Ukraine the incidence of salmonellosis is high. Outbreaks of salmonellosis are recorded. S. enteritidis is most often isolated from the clinical material of patients, carriers and human objects (p <0.05). The risk groups for salmonellosis are children (p <0.05), as well as the rural population (p <0.05). The low level of sanitary and epidemiological control at the stages of production, transportation and sale of food products, water supply contributes to the spread of salmonellosis. Natural factors have a regulating effect on the intensity of the epidemic salmonella process: a strong direct relationship is established between the incidence and air temperature and precipitation (p <0.05). Salmonella enters into a competitive or synergistic relationship with other microorganisms in the intestinal biotope. Thus, the intensity of the epidemic process of salmonellosis can be influenced not only by external (natural and social), but also by internal factors.
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Bibliography

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2. Hayden H.S., Matamouros S., Hager K.R., et al.: Genomic analysis of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium characterizes strain diversity for recent U.S. Salmonellosis cases and identifies mutations linked to loss of fitness under nitrosative and oxidative stress. mBio. 2016; 7 (2): e00154.
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8. World Health Organization. Salmonella (non-typhoidal). 20 Feb. 2017. Available from: www.who.int/en/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/salmonella-(non-typhoidal)
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12. Malysh N.G., Chemich N.D., Zaritskiy A.M.: Incidence, predisposing risk factors for the development and spread of acute intestinal infections in the north-eastern region of Ukraine. Gigiena i sanitariya. 2016; 95 (3): 287‒292. (Russian)
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Authors and Affiliations

Alla Podavalenko
1
Nina Malysh
2
Victoriya Zadorozhna
3
Mycola Chemych
2
Svetlana Biryukova
1
Inna Chorna
2

  1. Kharkiv Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, Ukraine
  2. Sumy State University, Ukraine
  3. SI “Institute of Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases named after L.V. Gromashevsky National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine”, Ukraine
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Abstract

The epidemic process of COVID-19 in the world developed rapidly. The situation with mor-bidity, despite the establishment of quarantine, the introduction of restrictive anti-epidemic measures, and vaccination, remains difficult. The results of research on the influence of meteorological factors on the dynamics of the incidence of COVID-19, hospitalization, and mortality are ambiguous and contradictory. The purpose of this study is to analyze the indicators of morbidity, hospitalization, and mortality from COVID-19 in Ukraine, and to establish the level of influence of meteorological factors on them. A high variation in morbidity, hospitalization, and mortality rates was observed in Ukraine, in 2020–2021. A total of 3 waves of disease growth were established. The curve of hospitalization indicators of patients with COVID-19 had a correlation dependence on the incidence curve r = 0.766 (р <0.05), the maximum rates of hospitalization and mortality were registered in September–December 2021. A direct strong correlation was established between the frequency of registration of cases of COVID-19 and mortality — r = 0.899 (р <0.05). Most cases of COVID-19 were registered in the cold season, the least in June–August. Inverse correlations of moderate strength were established between the indicators of morbidity, hospitalization, and mortality and air temperature levels (–0.370< r <–0.461). Direct correlations of average strength (0.538< r <0.632) were established with the levels of relative air humidity.
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Authors and Affiliations

Alla Podavalenko
1
Nina Malysh
2
Viktoriya Zadorozhna
3
Kateryna Zhuk
2
Galina Zaitseva
4
Inna Chorna
2

  1. Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology, Disinfectology and Occupational Diseases of Kharkiv National Medical University, Kharkiv, Ukraine
  2. Department of Infectious Diseases with Epidemiology, Sumy State University, Sumy, Ukraine
  3. State Institution “Institute of Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases named after L.V. Gromashevsky National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine”, Kyiv, Ukraine
  4. State Institution “Sumy Regional Center for Disease Control and Prevention of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine”

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