Nauki Humanistyczne i Społeczne

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics

Zawartość

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics | 2010 | No 3

Abstrakt

In the paper an approach to decision making in situations with non-point-like characterisation and subjective evaluation of the actions is considered. The decision situation is represented mathematically as fuzzy multiobjective linear programming (fMOLP) model, where we apply the reduced fuzzy matrices instead of fuzzy classical numbers. The fMOLP model with reduced parameters is decomposable into the set of point-like models and the point-like models enable effective construction of an optimisation procedure – fBIP, see Wojewnik (2006ab), extending the bireference procedure by Michalowski and Szapiro (1992). The approach is applied to a fuzzy optimization problem in the area of telecommunication services.

Przejdź do artykułu

Autorzy i Afiliacje

Piotr Wojewnik
Tomasz Szapiro

Abstrakt

This paper points out that the ARMA models followed by GARCH squares are volatile and gives explicit and general forms of their dependent and volatile innovations. The volatility function of the ARMA innovations is shown to be the square of the corresponding GARCH volatility function. The prediction of GARCH squares is facilitated by the ARMA structure and predictive intervals are considered. Further, the developments suggest families of volatile ARMA processes.

Przejdź do artykułu

Autorzy i Afiliacje

Anthony J. Lawrance

Abstrakt

The Walters critique of EMU presumed that pro-cyclical country-specific real interest rates would incorporate significant macroeconomic instability in an environment of asymmetric shocks. The literature on optimum currency areas suggests a number of criteria to minimize this risk, such as market flexibility, high degrees of openness, financial integration or similarity in inflation rates. In this paper, we argue that an essential part of macroeconomic volatility in a monetary union’s member country also depends on the mechanism of forming expectations. This is mainly due to (i) the construction of ex ante countryspecific real interest rate, implying a strong or weak negative correlation with current inflation rate and (ii) anticipated (and hence smoothed) loss in competitiveness and boom-bust cycle. In a 2-region 2-sector New Keynesian DSGE model, we apply 5 different specifications of ex ante real interest rates, based on commonly considered types of expectations: rational, adaptive, static, extrapolative and regressive, as well as their hybrids. Our simulations show that rational expectations dominate the other specifications in terms of minimizing the volatility of the most macroeconomic variables. This conclusion is generally insensitive to which group of agents (producers or consumers) and which region (home or foreign) forms the expectations. It also turns out that for some types of expectations the Walters critique indeed applies, i.e. the system does not fulfil the Blanchard-Kahn conditions or the system’s companion matrix has explosive eigenvalues.

Przejdź do artykułu

Autorzy i Afiliacje

Andrzej Torój

Instrukcja dla autorów


The Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics bases on a fully electronic editorial system available at cejeme.com, cejeme.org, cejeme.eu or cejeme.pl. This web-based editorial tracking software enables a paper-free operation of the key editorial functions of the Journal. Papers are submitted for publication electronically via electronic system (see the link "Submit article"). Also the system provides free access to the electronic form of each issue. In the review process the Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics obeys the double blind policy. Authors submitting articles to the Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics must follow the guidelines available at: http://www.cejeme.com/submissionguidelines.aspx. Any manuscript which does not conform to instructions will be rejected.


Submission Guidelines and Instructions for Authors of accepted papers please visit: http://cejeme.org/submissionguidelines.aspx

Ta strona wykorzystuje pliki 'cookies'. Więcej informacji