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Title: Development of the US electric car market: macroeconomic determinants and forecasts

Authors:

Sotnyk, Iryna ; Hulak, Daniil ; Yakushev, Oleksandr ; Yakusheva, Oksana ; Prokopenko, Olha V. ; Yevdokymov, Andrii

Date:

2020.10.05

Type:

Article

Coverage:

147-164

Abstract:

In the article, mathematical modeling methods are used to study the main trends and macroeconomic determinants of the electric car market development in 2011–2018 on the example of the US. The determinants include economic (GDP), socio-economic (household income), energy (electricity use), and environmental (СО2 emissions) factors. The authors justify the role of electric transport in strengthening national energy security due to the transition to renewable energy technologies and the reduction of fossil fuel use. Based on the constructed linear regression equations, a weak relationship has been revealed between the number of electric vehicles sold and the environmental factor, which can be explained by the small share of electric cars in the US market. The formed multifactor linear model showed a positive impact of both the country’s GDP growth and electricity consumption increase on the number of electric vehicles sold. However, the rise in household incomes negatively influences market development due to insufficient consumer awareness of the electric transport operation benefits, an underdeveloped network of electric vehicle charging stations, etc. Based on the obtained multifactor model, the authors have built optimistic, optimal and pessimistic scenarios for the US electric vehicle market deployment for the next five years. In order to implement the most favorable scenarios, recommendations for market development factors’ management have been made. The results of the study can be used to improve public policy in the US transport and energy sectors, as well as in other countries to optimize the fuel and energy balance, strengthen the energy independence of states by developing clean transport and adapting the model to national specifics.

Contact:

Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute
of the Polish Academy of Sciences
J. Wybickiego 7A, 31-261 Kraków, Poland
tel. +48 12 632 33 00, fax +48 12 632 35 24
e-mail: polene@min-pan.krakow.pl
www.min-pan.krakow.pl

Editors:

Editorial Board

  • Editor-in-Chief: Katarzyna Stala-Szlugaj – The Meeri PAS, Kraków, Poland
  • Deputy Editor-in-Chief: Jacek Kamiński – The Meeri PAS, Kraków, Poland (section editor: Energy)
  • Editorial Secretary: Aleksandra Komorowska – The Meeri PAS, Kraków, Poland (section editor: Fuels and Energy)
  • Section Editor: Bartosz Ceran – Poznań University of Technology, Poznan, Poland (Electrical Power Engineering)
  • Section Editor: Piotr Olczak – The Meeri PAS, Kraków, Poland (Energy Economics)
  • Section Editor: Magdalena Tyszer – The Meeri PAS, Kraków, Poland (Renewable Energy Sources)
  • Statistic Editor: Jarosław Kulpa – The Meeri PAS, Kraków, Poland
Advisory Editorial Board
  • Rolf Bracke – The International Geothermal Centre Hochschule, Bochum, German
  • Wojciech Bujalski – Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland
  • Tadeusz Chmielniak – The Silesian University of Technology, Gliwice, Poland
  • Lidia Gawlik – The Meeri PAS, Kraków, Poland
  • Ernst Huenges – The GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
  • Louis Jestin – The University of Cape Town, Rondebosc, RSA
  • Gudni Johannesson Orkustofnun – The Icelandic National Energy Authority, Reykjavik, Island
  • Viktor Kowal – Izmail State University of Humanities, Izmail, Ukraine
  • Josef Maroušek – The Institute of Technology and Businesses in České Budějovice, Czech Republic
  • Stanisław Nagy – The AGH University of Science and Technology, Kraków, Poland
  • Nuria G. Rabanal – The University of León, León, Spain
  • Namejs Zeltins – The Institute of Physical Energetics, Riga, Latvia
Editorial Committee
  • Publications Editor: Emilia Rydzewska-Smaz
  • Technical Editor: Beata Stankiewicz
  • Graphic project: Marcin Bruchnalski

Instructions for authors:

More info at Journal site:
https://min-pan.krakow.pl/wydawnictwo/czasopisma/polityka-energetyczna/
https://min-pan.krakow.pl/wydawnictwo/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2017/12/wskazowki-PE-polski.pdf

Identifier:

oai:journals.pan.pl:118058

Subject and keywords:

development policy electromobility transport sector modeling forecast market

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Apr 17, 2025

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Oct 6, 2020

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Development of the US electric car market: macroeconomic determinants and forecasts Apr 17, 2025

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