Morocco is basically an agricultural country; almost 40% of the workforce is employed in
this sector. Xylella fastidiosa is a xylem-inhabiting pathogen which can infect more than
300 plant species, although most host species are symptomless. Until relatively recently,
X. fastidiosa was primarily limited to North and South America, but in 2013 a widespread
epidemic of olive quick decline syndrome caused by this fastidious pathogen appeared in
southeastern Italy, and later several cases of X. fastidiosa outbreaks have been reported
in other European countries (France, Germany and Spain). Following these recently confirmed
findings of X. fastidiosa in the European Union, this bacterium has become a serious
threat to the Moroccan flora. The national phytosanitary authorities have adopted several
measures to prevent the introduction of X. fastidiosa into the national territory by deciding,
inter alia, to suspend importation of host plant species to the bacterium from infected
areas. This paper presents the phytosanitary risk of this bacterium in Morocco.
During the planning and controlling of the construction process, most attention is focu sed on risk analysis, especially in the context of final costs and deadlines of the investment. In this analysis, the primary and most significant concern is the proper identification and quantification of events, which on a certain level of probability may affect the development process. This paper presents the result of a risk analysis for a particular building object, made after completion of the investment and accepting it for use. Knowledge of the planned values and the actual investment process allowed for the identification of the events and their effects that in this case have significantly disrupted the investment process. The limited total cost of the investment project in question had a considerable impact on the progress of the project execution. Despite three transitions of administrative procedures, the opening date of the shopping centre was delayed by only three weeks.
Background: Recoarctation (reCoA) of the aorta is a common complication after the Norwood procedure. Untreated, it can lead to failure of the systemic ventricle and death. The main goal of the study is to defi ne risk factors of reCoA after the Norwood procedure in hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS).
Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the pre-, intra- and postoperative data of 96 successive patients who underwent the Norwood procedure between 2007 and 2011. In case of reCoA balloon angioplasty was performed. We analyzed and compared the data of the patients with reCoA and without reCoA using the StatSoft STATISTICA™ 10 soft ware.
Results: ReCoA was noted in 23 patients (33.3%). Th is complication was diagnosed 95.1 days (49–156 days) on the average aft er the Norwood procedure. Balloon angioplasty successfully allowed for decreasing the mean gradient across the site of the narrowing from the average 27.5 mmHg to the average 9.7 mmHg (p = 0.008) and enlarged the neo-isthmus by the average of 2 mm (p <0.05). Th e risks factors seemed to be the diameter of the ascending aorta OR = 7.82 (p = 0.001), atresia of the mitral valve OR = 7.00 (p = 0.003) and atresia of the aortic valve — OR = 6.22 (p = 0.002).
Conclusion: Balloon angioplasty seems to be an eff ective intervention in case of reCoA. A low diameter of the native ascending aorta (≤3mm) and the presence of atresia of the mitral and/or aortic valve should intensify the vigilance of a cardiologist in the search for signs of reCoA of the aorta.
The aim of the presented work was to examine the reliability assessment model on the example of a selected power grid object. The analyzed object was tested based on assumptions about technological breaks that were caused by overvoltage, among others. The study was conducted to check the reliability of integral elements of the power grid object and to assess the change in reliability level as a function of the frequency of inspections. The test results are to determine the optimal frequency of inspections of individual power grid objects in order to increase its reliability. In addition, the possibility of correlating optimal inspection periods resulting from the findings of this paper with periodic inspections of power network facilities was assessed.
Hass avocado cultivation in Colombia has grown rapidly in area in recent years. It is being planted in marginal areas, which leads to low yields, and in many cases is related to diseases. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) can offer a view of the potential geographic and environmental distribution of diseases, and thus identify areas with suitable or unsuitable conditions for their development. The aim of the study was to assess current and potential distribution of the major diseases on Hass avocado in Colombia. Areas planted with Hass avocado in Antioquia, Colombia were sampled for diseases including the following pathogens: Phytophthora cinnamomi, Verticillium sp., Lasiodiplodia theobromae, Phytophthora palmivora, Colletotrichum gloeosporioides sensu lato, Pestalotia sp., and Capnodium sp., and one disorder hypoxia-anoxia. These pathogens were selected based on their relevance (incidence-severity) and capacity to cause damage in different tissues of avocado plants. Severity and incidence of each disease were related to environmental information from vegetation indices and topographic variables using maximum entropy modeling approaches (MaxEnt). Models were calibrated only across areas sampled, and then transferred more broadly to areas currently planted, and to potential zones for planting. Combinations of best performance and low omission rates were the basis for model selection. Results show that Hass avocado has been planted in areas highly conducive for many pathogens, particularly for Phytophthora cinnamomi and hypoxia-anoxia disorder. Ecological niche modeling approaches offer an alternative toolset for planning and making assessments that can be incorporated into disease management plans.
The paper depicts a complex, distributed information system aimed at promoting cybersecurity awareness at the national level. The system, that is built in accordance with the Act on National Cybersecurity, passed by the Polish Parliament, enables collecting and processing in near-real time available information on the security status of essential services and digital services and, also, provides for assessment of negative impact of the identified threats concerned with the provision of those services. Advanced access control and dissemination mechanisms, for secure information sharing within the system, are provided in order to aggregate distributed knowledge and use this information for online security risk analysis and for generation and distribution of early warnings.
The effectiveness of lightning protection on the power and distribution grid is a significant factor, which influences the power distribution reliability and the failure rate of system elements. As part of this article, a mathematical model will be presented, taking into account selected parameters that affect the assessment of the lightning hazard of an overhead line. The proposed model will consider the location of the object near the line and the adjustment of line conductor overhangs. Moreover, the mentioned mathematical model allows for analyzing the impact of considered parameters on the protection level of the power system, and transient overvoltages that occur in this system. The article contains also a detailed description of an effective and fast method to assess the lightning discharge impact on the power system with insufficient data. The introduced model was tested to verify the correctness of its operation by comparison of calculation results and functional data. High convergence of calculated and functional data and uncomplicated model structure ensure a wide range of applications for the proposed solution to easily prevent emergency situations in the power system. Furthermore, the described model gives the opportunity to assess the reduction of the range of selectivity zone associated with the power line, in conjunction with the impact of constructional peculiarities and a near object.
The s-period ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) for a portfolio of dimension n is considered and its Bayesian analysis is discussed. The VaR assessment can be based either on the n-variate predictive distribution of future returns on individual assets, or on the univariate Bayesian model for the portfolio value (or the return on portfolio). In both cases Bayesian VaR takes into account parameter uncertainty and non-linear relationship between ordinary and logarithmic returns. In the case of a large portfolio, the applicability of the n-variate approach to Bayesian VaR depends on the form of the statistical model for asset prices. We use the n-variate type I MSF-SBEKK(1,1) volatility model proposed specially to cope with large n. We compare empirical results obtained using this multivariate approach and the much simpler univariate approach based on modelling volatility of the value of a given portfolio.
In the existent world of continuous production systems, strong attention has been waged
to anonymous risk that probably generates significant apprehension. The forecast for net
present value is extremely important for any production plant. The objective of this paper
is to implement Monte Carlo simulation technique for perceiving the impact of risk and uncertainty
in prediction and forecasting company’s profitability. The production unit under
study is interested to make the initial investment by installing an additional spray dryer
plant. The expressive values acquied from the Monte Carlo technique established a range of
certain results. The expected net present value of the cash flow is $14,605, hence the frequency
chart outcomes confirmed that there is the highest level of certainty that the company
will achieve its target. To forecast the net present value for the next period, the results
confirmed that there are 50.73% chances of achieving the outcomes. Considering the minimum
and maximum values at 80% certainty level, it was observed that 80% chances exist
that expected outcomes will be between $5,830 and $22,587. The model’s sensitivity results
validated that cash inflows had a greater sensitivity level of 21.1% and the cash inflows for
the next year as 19.7%. Cumulative frequency distribution confirmed that the probability
to achieve a maximum value of $23,520 is 90 % and for the value of $6,244 it is about 10 %.
These validations suggested that controlling the expenditures, the company’s outflows can
also be controlled definitely.
The chapter deals with the issue of the risk and security management process in public administration, according to the internal audit standards and their requirements. Main legal acts and standards were specified and shortly described. Specially the risk analysis process and security measures selection were emphasized. The possibility to use the software tools for the risk analysis and security measures selection support in public administration was presented. The experiment of OSCAD usage in public administration was shortly described and its results were presented. This experiment shows that the software primarily intended for IT Security Management can be used for risk management in different area as well, for example – in public administration. Some possibilities of further development of risk management supporting tools were proposed.
The article presents a shock safety model of an indirect contact with a low-voltage electric device. This model was used for computations and analyses concerning the following: the probabilities of appearance of the particular shock protection unreliability states, electric shock states (ventricular fibrillation), contributions of the unreliability of different shock protection elements to the probability of occurrence of these states, as well as the risk of electric shock (and the shock safety), and contributions of the intensity of occurrence of damages to different shock protection elements to this risk. An example of a possibility to reduce the risk of an electric shock through changing the intensity of occurrence of damages to the selected protection elements was provided.