Over the past two years, coking coal prices have been the most volatile among major bulk commodities. On the supply side, the most important factor determining the movement of coal prices were weather problems affecting the exports of coal from Australia (Queensland), where the production of the best quality coking coals is concentrated. On the demand side, an important factor is the growing role of China on the market, which, being the world’s largest producer and consumer of metallurgical coal, has also become its largest importer. The dominant, about 75% share of China in the global spot market has resulted in their level of activity influencing the periodic price decreases or increases in international trade and prices based on CFR China (along with Australian FOB prices) have become important indicators to monitor market trends and determine levels of negotiated benchmarks. The exceptional volatility on the market led to a change in the quarterly price fixing mechanism for hard-load hard coal contractors in mid–2017 to apply a formula that assumes the valuation of their quarterly volumes based on the average of the basket of spot price indices. This reflects the broader trend of the evolving market, with growing spot market activity. The article describes the current situation on the international coking coal market and presents short-term forecasts for hard coking hard coal prices (PHCC LV), which are a reference point for fixing prices of other types of metallurgical coal (hard standard, semi-soft, PCI).

Over the past decade, the growing demand for imported coal from consumers (mainly Asian) coincided with supply constraints on the part of major suppliers. The sequence of events is referred to as force majeure. There were many events in the exporting countries, mainly including the cyclone and floods in Australia (Queensland, the world’s largest hard coking coal mining region). Imbalance between supply and demand causes commodity prices to be subject to cyclical changes, but in recent years the frequency and dynamics of these changes in the international metallurgical market (hard coking coal, semi-soft coking coal, PCI coal) has been extremely high. China, the world’s largest producer and consumer of coking coal, played a leading role in these events. Political action by the Chinese authorities regarding their domestic mining and metallurgical industries and the coke-chemical industry has made the country dethrone Japan since 2013 and has become a global leader in metallurgical coal imports. The rise of China’s importance in coal trading has become an important benchmark for monitoring market trends and benchmarking benchmarks. The market has become more bipolar and CFR China’s prices (in addition to Australia’s FOB prices). The paper describes the path of pricing mechanism changes in international trade contracts for metallurgical coal, against the background of market conditions that generate these changes.

An attempt to summarize the primary iron raw materials and steel market’s hundred years history as well as influence of economic indicators on the iron ore deposit qualification for extraction has been undertaken in the paper. Steel products are crucial to the world economy, and their production has a major impact on the environment. The main factor is the huge scale of the production and growth rate, unprecedented among minerals. Iron ore and concentrates production has increased more than thirty times over the past century, and the geological resource base at the current level of consumption has provided almost 250 years of sufficiency. There have been tremendous changes in the world geography of the ore and steel industry. The iron ore mining industry is the driver of other economic activities (land transport, freight, metallurgy) and involves huge capital and human resources. The consumption of iron raw materials is also considered as an important indicator of the countries development and current or even future economic situation. Population growth remains one of the key stimulating factors. The prices of ore and iron concentrates depend on the quality of the raw material, delivery conditions, market balance and the weight of the ordered cargo. They are usually the subject of negotiations. In the past, they were long-term contracts, while short-term (yearly, quarterly) and current spot transactions are now significant. The prices of ores and concentrates in relation to steel prices are showing a strong correlation. The average iron content of the reserves has been reduced in the largest producers in the 21st century, however it does not translate into the quality of mining output. Exploitation of the richer parts of the mineral deposit is usually carried out. The high content of iron in the output is a response to the technological requirements of the metallurgy where the blast furnace charge should contain at least 56% Fe and 5–8% FeO. The current surplus of geological-mining supply (large resource base) justifies that a mineral deposit choice, destined for excavation, is economic profit maximization as well as social and environmental considerations.

The article presents an analysis of Russia’s participation in international steam coal trade, which has been its important participant for years. The research covered the years 2014–2018. The geographical location on two continents and the availability of coal deposits, favors its presence on both the Pacific and Atlantic markets. The article also discusses the main coal producers in Russia and the prices of Russian steam coal directed to the spot market. Due to the significant share of coal exports for the Russian economy, the focus was also on analyzing Russian seaports.

In recent years, Asian exports have dominated in Russian steam coal exports. The share of export to this market in the years 2014–2018 was in the range of 49–57% (60–87 million tons). Currently, three countries play an important role among Asian countries: South Korea, China and J apan. They purchased a total of 38–52 million tons of Russian coal. Although in the years under analysis Russia exported 52–67 million tons of steam coal to the European market, the share of this market dropped from almost half to around 40%. T he slow departure from coal energy contributes to reducing the share of recipients from this direction. Among European countries, in 2014 the main direction of export was Great Britain with 19% (24 million tons) of total export share. In 2018, exports fell to 9 million tons (5%).

Among European destinations for Russian coal, Poland’s share is growing in importance. In the years 2014–2018, steam coal exports to Poland varied in the range of 5.6–16.2 million tons. In the years 2014–2018 it changed in the range of 5.6–16.2 million tons. The dynamic growth achieved in the last three years is noteworthy. In relation to 2016, imports increased by 10.0 million tons and in 2018 amounted to as much as 16.1 million tons. The article also discusses the geographical structure of coal imports to Poland by railway border crossings and seaports.

The article contains considerations on the historical evolution of globalization in the context of the rivalry between two basic concepts of economic system: pro-state option and pro-market option. The author assumes that globalization is a permanent feature of human aspirations. In the beginning of modern era it was interlocked with the alternating dominance of pro-market and pro-state tendencies, and it continues to appear in the same form until present times. The liberal economic thought has expressed these opposition in the state versus market formula. Over the last five centuries there have been five stages of alternating dominance of pro-market and pro-state forces, connected with globalization. First was the mercantilism with the significant role of state, and its antithesis was the XIX-century free-competition capitalism. Two last stages – the neo-liberalism dating from 1980 to 2008 and its antithesis from 2009 to 2019 – have been presented in detail. The previous stages are shown only as historical background. The analysis is preceded by the outline of a theoretical model of globalization connected with the alternating dominance of pro-state and pro-market tendencies, which can be seen as value added to the legacy of economic thought devoted to the relationship between market and state.

Poland’s economy is closely connected with European markets, particularly within the European Union: almost 90% of Polish commodity export goes to European countries and 80% is absorbed by other EU countries. The common European market is absorptive, safe and stabile, and goods and services sold there are duty free. But the high concentration of exports in this market implies a strong dependence on the modest growth dynamics and local fluctuations of demand, while reducing the gains that could be obtained from the presence in emerging markets which include several large and rapidly growing developing economies. The paper gives a general characteristics of those markets, including the information on their economic and population potential, and their place in the world economy – at present and in the future (according to current statistical data and long-run forecasts). The statistics of Polish foreign trade indicates a very small share of emerging countries in the geographical structure of Poland’s exports. The author describes the chances and threats combined with export expansion to these markets, emphasizing that the net balance of benefits and risks is clearly positive, which should encourage Polish enterprises to take a more active part in trade and cooperation with those countries and regions.

Coal production in 2018 increased by 3.3% and amounted to 7.81 million tons. Compared to 2010, it increased by 620 million tons. The structure of coal production in the world is very stable in the analyzed period of 2010–2018. Steam coal dominates in production with a share of 77%. Since 1990, the share of coal in the consumption of primary energy carriers has fallen by 3% in the global economy. In the EU, the share of coal in the consumption of primary energy carriers is more than twice lower than in the world, and in 2018 amounted to 13%. BP estimates the sufficiency of coal proven reserves based on 2018 data for the next 132 years. For oil and gas, they are estimated at 51 years. The decline in hard coal production in the European U nion can be dated almost continuously since 1990, which has decreased by 74%. In 2018, 74 million tons of coal were produced in the EU. In 2018, hard coal consumption in EU countries dropped to 226 million tons, i.e. by 20.6%.

In 2018, global trade in steam coal amounted to 1.14 billion tons. The situation in China is crucial for the international coal market. The slight change in the import policy of this country significantly affects the situation in international trade in steam coal. In 2019, coal prices (at Newcastle, Richards Bay, ARA ports) dropped by an average of 23 U SD/ton. The average decreases for these three indices were 33%. The prices of steam coal in the forecasts presented in the paper are under pressure of the falling demand.

With the upcoming implementation of the centralized capacity market in Poland, capacity auctions will be organized where domestic power companies will offer their available capacities. It is assumed that bidding will be auctioned according to the so called descending clock auction system with uniform-price (Pay-as-Clear), which will lead to the market equilibrium price. Some analysts, however, are of the view that it is more appropriate to organize capacity auctions in the Pay-as-Bid formula, as this system should lead to lower prices that those of Pay-as-Clear, hence lower costs of capacity purchase. However, this opinion does not confirm the practice – theoretical considerations do not take into account such important factors as the behavior of market players and the tendency of bidders to accept a higher risk or the lack of access to advanced analyses, and thus better information for all market participants. This paper presents a hypothetical calculation of the prices in the centralized capacity market using Monte Carlo simulations. The results of the study confirm that the price level for the Pay-as-Bid system, due to the asymmetry of information and the level of concentration of the power generation sector in Poland would lead to higher prices than for the Pay-as-Clear system on average by approximately 2.5%. The implementation of the PAB system would, therefore, be less efficient to electricity consumers.

The aspect of climate change in the modern world is one of the broader issues of global social and economic policy. Climate change implies a modification of the business environment, especially the energy sector. Any change in the conditions in which the company operates is the cause, the effect of which becomes its financial situation during the relevant period. Therefore, climate policy will play an increasingly important role in shaping the energy of the future. At present, energy companies are taking measures to process primary energy from fossil fuels, in particular coal, in an efficient and environmentally friendly way. The article presents the impact of international climate agreements on the energy and coal industries. The latest agreement signed in Paris defines a global plan to minimize the dangerous effects of global warming on the climate arising from carbon emissions. The most important outcome of the agreement was the unification of many countries with a common goal. The European Union played a key role in signing the first legally binding agreement in the world, which is also a forerunner in the carbon trading system: EU ETS (European Union Emission Trading Scheme) The US-based CO2 emissions trading system has become a model for the European Commission. In addition, the article highlights the correlation between the EUA ( European Union Allowances) and “ARA coal” prices as well as the role of the coal market in price formation of emission allowances.

Mineral markets, in spite of many common features with other goods markets, are distinctive. Their functioning sometimes deviates from the rules of the free market. This feature results from the specificity of acquiring the good being an object of trade. In general, changes in the supply of strategic raw materials are indicated earlier (characterized by a lengthy investment cycle from deposit reconnaissance to mining development), develop slowly, andare inelastic. Demand for common mineral raw materials often has a clear and economic character. However, mineral markets as well as markets of other goods have a common feature - the fact that both are a place where an incessant game is being played. In general, two types of strategic behaviours are distinguished: competition or cooperation. This paper recalls an existing model known as the oil market game. Based on a three-entity market of aggregate producers, an attempt has been made to model entrepreneurs' behaviour. The analysis applies n-person game theory. Game theory enables the evaluation of diverse potential coalitions forming. Possible strategies of activity coming from the prospect of cooperation (or its omission) are presented. Expected payoffs are estimated for possible alliances. Proposals for the division of the payoffs among the participants forming the coalition are also suggested.

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