Humanities and Social Sciences

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics

Content

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics | 2016 | No 3 |

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyse the welfare consequences of the processes of liberalisation of trade between asymmetric states in terms of the various size sand effectiveness of their economies and the type of international exchange. These characteristics ultimately define the distribution of benefits from the liberalisation of international trade. When it is inter-industry or vertical intra-industry and barriers in trade are smaller than the difference in the effectiveness of the economies, the trade liberalisation undoubtedly contributes to improved social welfare, regardless of the level of effectiveness and the size of the economy. In the situation, however, of horizontal intra-industry trade, changes in the welfares of asymmetric countries, caused by their progressing trade liberalisation, depend on the sizes and effectiveness of their economies. The welfare of society in either a very big and ineffective or in a small and very ineffective country could even decrease in such a situation. This is the case when the increase in consumers’ surplus is not sufficient to compensate for the decreasing profits of firms.

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Authors and Affiliations

Krzysztof Kosiec
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Abstract

A Bayesian stochastic volatility model with a leverage effect, normal errors and jump component with the double exponential distribution of a jump value is proposed. The ready to use Gibbs sampler is presented, which enables one to conduct statistical inference. In the empirical study, the SVLEDEJ model is applied to model logarithmic growth rates of one month forward gas prices. The results reveal an important role of both jump and stochastic volatility components.

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Authors and Affiliations

Maciej Kostrzewski
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Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the impact of exogenous fiscal policies on the Indonesian main macroeconomic indicators and the implications on different institutions and sectors in the economy using the static Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis. Three simulations are conducted in order to analyze the expansion of exogenous public spending. The results revealed that the increase of government expenditure on goods under the adjusted government deficit and balance of payment generates the highest improvement on Indonesian GDP but resulting an increase in government deficit. In contrast, under financing scheme of either lowering subsidy rates across activities or increasing the ad valorem tax rates would result in lower improvement on Indonesian GDP. This is because it directly escalates the cost of production and thus increases the prices of final goods purchased by the households which result in a fall in their real consumption and in turn eventually could lead to a decrease in national income.

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Authors and Affiliations

Herbert W.V. Hasudungan
Sulthon S. Sabaruddin

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