One of the basic parameters which describes road traffic is Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT). Its accurate determination is possible only on the basis of data from the continuous measurement of traffic. However, such data for most road sections is unavailable, so AADT must be determined on the basis of short periods of random measurements. This article presents different methods of estimating AADT on the basis of daily traffic (VOL), and includes the traditional Factor Approach, developed Regression Models and Artificial Neural Network models. As explanatory variables, quantitative variables (VOL and the share of heavy vehicles) as well as qualitative variables (day of the week, month, level of AADT, the cross-section, road class, nature of the area, spatial linking, region of Poland and the nature of traffic patterns) were used. Based on comparisons of the presented methods, the Factor Approach was identified as the most useful.
Journal bearings are the most common type of bearings in which a shaft freely rotates in a metallic sleeve. They find a lot of applications in industry, especially where extremely high loads are involved. Proper analysis of the various bearing faults and predicting the modes of failure beforehand are essential to increase the working life of the bearing. In the current study, the vibration data of a journal bearing in the healthy condition and in five different fault conditions are collected. A feature extraction method is employed to classify the different fault conditions. Automatic fault classification is performed using artificial neural networks (ANN). As the probability of a correct prediction goes down for a higher number of faults in ANN, the method is made more robust by incorporating deep neural networks (DNN) with the help of autoencoders. Training was done using the scaled conjugate gradient algorithm and the performance was calculated by the cross entropy method. Due to the increased number of hidden layers in DNN, it is possible to achieve a high efficiency of 100% with the feature extraction method.
The article presents the prototype of a measurement system with a hot probe, designed for testing thermal parameters of heat insulation materials. The idea is to determine parameters of thermal insulation materials using a hot probe with an auxiliary thermometer and a trained artificial neural network. The network is trained on data extracted from a nonstationary two-dimensional model of heat conduction inside a sample of material with the hot probe and the auxiliary thermometer. The significant heat capacity of the probe handle is taken into account in the model. The finite element method (FEM) is applied to solve the system of partial differential equations describing the model. An artificial neural network (ANN) is used to estimate coefficients of the inverse heat conduction problem for a solid. The network determines values of the effective thermal conductivity and effective thermal diffusivity on the basis of temperature responses of the hot probe and the auxiliary thermometer. All calculations, like FEM, training and testing processes, were conducted in the MATLAB environment. Experimental results are also presented. The proposed measurement system for parameter testing is suitable for temporary measurements in a building site or factory.
When an artificial neural network is used to determine the value of a physical quantity its result is usually presented without an uncertainty. This is due to the difficulty in determining the uncertainties related to the neural model. However, the result of a measurement can be considered valid only with its respective measurement uncertainty. Therefore, this article proposes a method of obtaining reliable results by measuring systems that use artificial neural networks. For this, it considers the Monte Carlo Method (MCM) for propagation of uncertainty distributions during the training and use of the artificial neural networks.
The literature on exchange rate forecasting is vast. Many researchers have tested whether implications of theoretical economic models or the use of advanced econometric techniques can help explain future movements in exchange rates. The results of the empirical studies for major world currencies show that forecasts from a naive random walk tend to be comparable or even better than forecasts from more sophisticated models. In the case of the Polish zloty, the discussion in the literature on exchange rate forecasting is scarce. This article fills this gap by testing whether non-linear time series models are able to generate forecasts for the nominal exchange rate of the Polish zloty that are more accurate than forecasts from a random walk. Our results confirm the main findings from the literature, namely that it is difficult to outperform a naive random walk in exchange rate forecasting contest.
The purpose of the work was to predict the selected product parameters of the dry separation process using a pneumatic sorter. From the perspective of application of coal for energy purposes, determination of process parameters of the output as: ash content, moisture content, sulfur content, calorific value is essential. Prediction was carried out using chosen machine learning algorithms that proved to be effective in forecasting output of various technological processes in which the relationships between process parameters are non-linear. The source of data used in the work were experiments of dry separation of coal samples. Multiple linear regression was used as the baseline predictive technique. The results showed that in the case of predicting moisture and sulfur content this technique was sufficient. The more complex machine learning algorithms like support vector machine (SVM) and multilayer perceptron neural network (MPL) were used and analyzed in the case of ash content and calorific value. In addition, k-means clustering technique was applied. The role of cluster analysis was to obtain additional information about coal samples used as feed material. The combination of techniques such as multilayer perceptron neural network (MPL) or support vector machine (SVM) with k-means allowed for the development of a hybrid algorithm. This approach has significantly increased the effectiveness of the predictive models and proved to be a useful tool in the modeling of the coal enrichment process.
A new approach to solve the inverse problem in electrical capacitance tomography is presented. The proposed method is based on an artificial neural network to estimate three different parameters of a circular object present inside a pipeline, i.e. radius and 2D position coordinates. This information allows the estimation of the distribution of material inside a pipe and determination of the characteristic parameters of a range of flows, which are characterised by a circular objects emerging within a cross section such as funnel flow in a silo gravitational discharging process. The main advantages of the proposed approach are explicitly: the desired characteristic flow parameters are estimated directly from the measured capacitances and rapidity, which in turn is crucial for online flow monitoring. In a classic approach in order to obtain these parameters in the first step the image is reconstructed and then the parameters are estimated with the use of image processing methods. The obtained results showed significant reduction of computations time in comparison to the iterative LBP or Levenberg-Marquard algorithms.
Presented are results of a research on the possibility of using artificial neural networks for forecasting mechanical and technological
parameters of moulding sands containing water-glass, hardened in the innovative microwave heating process. Trial predictions were
confronted with experimental results of examining sandmixes prepared on the base of high-silica sand, containing various grades of
sodium water-glass and additions of a wetting agent. It was found on the grounds of obtained values of tensile strength and permeability
that, with use of artificial neural networks, it is possible complex forecasting mechanical and technological properties of these materials
after microwave heating and the obtained data will be used in further research works on application of modern analytic methods for
designing production technology of high-quality casting cores and moulds.
Malignant melanomas are the most deadly type of skin cancer, yet detected early have high chances of successful treatment. In the last twenty years, the interest in automatic recognition and classification of melanoma dynamically increased, partly because of appearing public datasets with dermatoscopic images of skin lesions. Automated computer-aided skin cancer detection in dermatoscopic images is a very challenging task due to uneven sizes of datasets, huge intra-class variation with small interclass variation, and the existence of many artifacts in the images. One of the most recognized methods of melanoma diagnosis is the ABCD method. In the paper, we propose an extended version of this method and an intelligent decision support system based on neural networks that uses its results in the form of hand-crafted features. Automatic determination of the skin features with the ABCD method is difficult due to the large diversity of images of various quality, the existence of hair, different markers and other obstacles. Therefore, it was necessary to apply advanced methods of pre-processing the images. The proposed system is an ensemble of ten neural networks working in parallel, and one network using their results to generate a final decision. This system structure enables to increase the efficiency of its operation by several percentage points compared with a single neural network. The proposed system is trained on over 5000 and tested afterwards on 200 skin moles. The presented system can be used as a decision support system for primary care physicians, as a system capable of self-examination of the skin with a dermatoscope and also as an important tool to improve biopsy decision making.
This research highlights the vibration analysis on worm gears at various conditions of oil using the experimental set up. An experimental rig was developed to facilitate the collection of the vibration signals which consisted of a worm gear box coupled to an AC motor. The four faults were induced in the gear box and the vibration data were collected under full, half and quarter oil conditions. An accelerometer was used to collect the signals and for further analysis of the vibration signals, MATLAB software was used to process the data. Symlet wavelet transform was applied to the raw FFT to compare the features of the data. ANN was implemented to classify various faults and the accuracy is 93.3%.
This study is aimed at evaluating the applicability of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model technique for river discharge forecasting. Feed-forward multilayer perceptron neural network trained with back-propagation algorithm was employed for model development. Hydro-meteorological data for the Imo River watershed, that was collected from the Anambra-Imo River Basin Development Authority, Owerri – Imo State, South-East, Nigeria, was used to train, validate and test the model. Coefficients of determination results are 0.91, 0.91 and 0.93 for training, validation and testing periodsrespectively. River discharge forecasts were fitted against actual discharge data for one to five lead days. Model results gave R2 values of 0.95, 0.95, 0.92, 0.96 and 0.94 for first, second, third, fourth, and fifth lead days of forecasts, respectively. It was generally observed that the R2 values decreased with increase in lead days for the model. Generally, this tech-nique proved to be effective in river discharge modelling for flood forecasting for shorter lead-day times, especially in areas with limited data sets.